Posted in campaign 2014 Congress Media Politics

#NCSEN: High Point U. poll says Hagan 42, Tillis 40, Haugh 6

Even though Kay Hagan is on top here, this survey represents some of the best polling news in weeks for Thom Tillis. The survey — 410 likely voters from 9/13 to 9/18 — has a margin of error of roughly +-5 percent.  THAT puts things…

Posted in campaign 2014 Congress Media Politics

#NCSEN: Only 45% of the white vote FOR Tillis?

We posted earlier about the Fox News poll of this race.  Digging into the cross-tabs led us to discover a really interesting stat.  Hagan, the Democrat, is drawing 33 percent of the white vote — which can be expected for a Democrat candidate in this…

Posted in Congress Media

#NCSEN: Sabato says race “Leans Democrat,” Tillis “stuck”

Political prognosticator, cable TV talking head, and UVa political scientist Larry Sabato is seeing things trending Kay Hagan’s way this year: Another week is down the drain in the race for the Senate, and while our overall outlook is unchanged — a five to eight…

Posted in Congress Media

#NCSEN: Fox News says Hagan 41, Tillis 36

I am willing to bet they are binging on Tums and Pepto-Bismol over at Tillis HQ.  ANOTHER GOP-leaning poll shows Hagan leading the US Senate race. Fox News surveyed  the main US Senate battleground states.  They found the Democrat and Republican candidates in Iowa TIED 41-41…

Posted in Congress Media

#NCSEN: political oddsmaker sees Hagan’s fortunes improving dramatically

Nate Silver of ESPN and the Five Thirty-Eight blog is showing the political fortunes of endangered Democrats in North Carolina and Colorado improving dramatically in recent weeks. On September 3, Silver had pegged Kay Hagan’s reelection chances at 46 percent.  As of September 15, he…

Posted in campaign 2014 Congress Media Politics

#NCSEN: Elon & PPP both say Hagan 44, Tillis 40

Oh, the *good news* just keeps rolling in for the GOP campaign for North Carolina’s US Senate seat.  Left-leaning Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,266 likely voters from September 11 -14.The margin of error was +-2.8 percent.  The Elon Poll surveyed 1,078 registered voters (629 of whom…

Posted in campaign 2014 Congress Media NCGOP Politics Thom Tillis

#NCSEN: A trip back in time to recall the “old” Kay Hagan

One of our allies out there jogged our memory with a very helpful piece from The Daily Kos about the 2008 version of Kay Hagan: In the race to replace Elizabeth Dole (R-KansasD.C.-NC)The North Carolina Senate race pits an entrenched corporate Democrat who is right…

Posted in campaign 2014 Congress Kay Hagan Media Politics Thom Tillis

#NCSEN GOP shock poll: Hagan 43, Tillis 34

ANOTHER GOP-leaning pollster has released survey results showing US Senator Kay Hagan leading state House speaker Thom Tillis outside the margin of error.  American Insights, a Republican-leaning North Carolina-based pollster, has found results not far from the recent findings of fellow right-leaners Civitas and Rasmussen…

Posted in Congress Media

#NCSEN: Way too much DE-fense

It’s football season.  One of the favorite stats of sports drive-bys is time of possession (a/k/a “time on offense.”) The longer your team has the ball, the longer the other team is without the ball AND a chance to score points against you.  So, it…

Posted in campaign 2014 Congress Media Politics

#NCSEN: Rasmussen says Hagan 45, Tillis 39

When a firm known for being a Karl Rove shill says one of Karl’s guys is down, you know things are getting interesting.  Rasmussen Reports released a survey today showing Senator Kay Hagan (D) with a SIX point lead over GOP challenger and state House…