#NCSEN GOP shock poll: Hagan 43, Tillis 34

thom sighANOTHER GOP-leaning pollster has released survey results showing US Senator Kay Hagan leading state House speaker Thom Tillis outside the margin of error.  American Insights, a Republican-leaning North Carolina-based pollster, has found results not far from the recent findings of fellow right-leaners Civitas and Rasmussen Reports.  \

(Jr. Cooper, a regular commenter on this site, tipped us off a few days ago about the AI poll being conducted.  He, apparently, got called.  *I BET he told them he was a Hagan fan.*)

AI shows Hagan leading Tillis 43-34 among likely voters.  The survey was conducted with 600 registered voters between September 5 and 10. (459 of those 600 were determined to be “likely voters.” The margin of error was at +- 4 percent.) 

Some other key findings from the American Insights poll:

  • 39 percent of Likely Voters watched the debate.  That group that watched thought Hagan won by a margin of 54-33.
  • 79 percent of Likely Voters have seen or heard a political ad for this race.  Only 21 percent say the ads have affected their choices.
  • Tillis leads by 6 points with white Likely Voters, but is losing bad (73-8) with Black Likely Voters.
  • Tillis leads 39-38 among native-born North Carolinians likely to votesock1
  • Hagan leads in the Charlotte area, Mountains, and Triangle among Likely Voters.  Tillis leads Hagan in the Coastal Plains and Triad.
  • Sean Haugh’s greatest level of support comes from men.  His strongest showing is in the Triad area (9 percent).
  • If you drop Haugh from consideration, and ask his voters to support Hagan or Tillis, they split 39-32 in favor of Tillis.
  • In a head-to-head match excluding Haugh, Hagan’s lead is 47-38.
  • More independents and Democrats watched the Sept. 3 debate than Republicans.
  • Charlotte area debate watchers thought Hagan won by a margin of 45-43.  Nearly two thirds of debate watchers in the mountains thought Hagan won.
  • Young Likely Voters (18-34) are the only demographic where Obama’s support is right-side up.
  • Young Likely Voters (18-34) are also the only demo that would trust Hagan more than Tillis.
  • Hagan’s approval among female Likely Voters at 48-40, while 44-46 with men.  She is -16 with seniors, but +24 with young voters.
  • The Triad region is the most anti-Obama region of the state (by a -21 margin), while the Triangle is the most pro-Obama.