#ncpol: Two down, a zillion to go. WHAT we’ve learned so far.

cruz-trump-2016Everyone — and I mean everyone — is trying to read the political tea leaves in the wake of the Iowa and New Hampshire votes.  On the Democrat side, we’re being told Hillary is reeling.  On the Republican side, we’re being told outsiders and anti-establishment types are stomping on the establishment.  What to believe.  What to believe. 

Since 1980, there have been only THREE presidential elections where there was NO incumbent — 1988, 2000, and 2008.  In 1988, Richard Gephardt won Iowa. Mike Dukakis won New Hampshire.  Dukakis ended up with the party’s nod for November. That same year, on the GOP side, Bob Dole won Iowa while George  H.W. Bush took New Hampshire.  So, Iowa wasn’t so good that year.  But New Hampshire was right on the money. 

In 2000, Al Gore won Iowa AND New Hampshire.  On the GOP side, George W. Bush won Iowa but McCain got New Hampshire.  That year, Iowa did well. But the GOP fell down on the job in New Hampshire.  

In 2008, Barry Obama and Mike Huckabee won Iowa.  So, the Hawkeye State ended up picking HALF of November’s equation.  New Hampshire went to Hillary Clinton and John McCain. So, New Hampshire got November half-right, as well. 

For Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire, they accurately picked the eventual nominee TWO out of THREE TIMES.  The Iowa GOP got it right ONCE.  New Hampshire Republicans picked the eventual nominee TWO out of THREE TIMES. hillary

Here are some interesting numbers regarding New Hampshire that were compiled by Fox News:

NH Combined campaign/SuperPAC spending
$36M    Bush
$18.5M Christie
$15.2M Rubio
$12.1M Kasich
$3.7M   Trump
$1.8M   Fiorina
$580K   Cruz

Results of the NH Primary (92% reported)
Trump     35.2%
Kasich    15.8%
Cruz       11.6%
Jeb!        11.1%
Rubio     10.5%
Christie    7.5%
Carly        4.2%

conservativeIn New Hampshire, your total spending was inversely proportional to how you ended up finishing.  (Carly Fiorina was the exception. She was second-to-last in total spending, but finished LAST.)

Polling found that FIFTY PERCENT of New Hampshire Republicans felt betrayed by their leaders in Washington.  (Want to bet there are numbers higher than THAT in other states?)

Exit polls show that the number of New Hampshire voters calling themselves “very conservative” was up dramatically, while more and more independents and unaffiliateds went Democrat.

Two-thirds of New Hampshire Republicans favored Trump’s ban on Muslim immigration and / or a “pause” on Muslim immigration.

The Romney-like wet noodles are under-performing this year.   In Iowa, 90 percent of the GOP vote went to candidates positioning themselves as out-and-out conservatives. (Cruz, Trump, Carson, Paul, and Rubio.)  NINETY PERCENT.  Trump and Cruz alone accounted for 52 percent of the total vote. 

In New Hampshire, SIXTY-TWO percent of the total GOP vote went to candidates positioning themselves as conservatives (Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Carson). Trump and Cruz together accounted for 48 percent of the vote.

So, what are we learning?  First, all of that hogwash coming from the drive-bys and the Karl Rove wannabes about the need to tone down the rhetoric isn’t selling.  People are angry and they want to see some drastic change. 

Second, some combidenshadesbo of Trump and Cruz appears to be working with primary voters.  Hopefully, those two can make nice and, possibly, work something out if it comes down to them at the end of all this.

In the end, despite all of the talk of increasing the impact of our state’s primary, it looks like we won’t have much of an impact.  The geniuses at the state GOP moved us up to March, which allowed for the primary to go from winner-take-all to proportional distribution of delegates.  Candidates tend to campaign more aggressively in winner-take-all states.  Surely, this was done as part of a national effort by the GOPe to water down the Trump and Cruz juggernauts.  biden2

Hillary’s struggle on the Democrat side against a guy who’s so far left that he won’t Identify as a Democrat is scaring her supporters in the media and DC.  But what are the fallback options if Ms. Rodham-Clinton implodes?  Joe Biden, who was declared morally unfit in 1988 to be president? 

A geriatric socialist. A screeching dishonest crone.  and JOE BIDEN.  What a choice for Democrats in the waning days of their Messiah’s reign in DC. 

 

 

8 thoughts on “#ncpol: Two down, a zillion to go. WHAT we’ve learned so far.

  1. According to exit polls, 42% of those who voted in the GOP primary in NH were not Republicans, but independents. That skews primary results to the left. North Carolina needs to go back to a closed primary so that it is Republicans, not non-Republicans who are picking our nominees. In 2008, exit polls showed that if only Republicans had been voting, McCain would not have won in New Hampshire or South Carolina. Thus we would have had a better nominee who would have had a much better chance of beating Obama.

    If we had a closed primary in 2014, Tillis would have had a runoff, and never been the nominee.

    Marco ”Gang of 8” Rubio is NOT on the anti-establishment or conservative side of things. He has gone right along with Mitch McConnell’s surrender caucus in the Senate in enabling Obama policy. Rubio is a Jeb Bush protege who lied about his real position on illegal immigration to take a Senate seat in Florida. The full story on that Florida fiasco is at: http://www.marcorubioamnestyman.com

    ”Winner take all” in NC was a ploy by the Scott Walker campaign. In Florida, it was a ploy by the Jeb Bush campaign. Winner take all is an unfair system that conservatives on the NC Republican state executive committee overturned after a State Senator had imposed it in the legislation at the request of the Walker campaign.

  2. Well, I have a different take.
    The reason Trump and Sanders are doing so well is that Americans (and not just Republicans) are SICK AND TIRED of the Washington Establishment politicians.
    I (for one) am ready to give an “outsider” a chance, after the pathetic “bend over and grab their ankles for Obama” performance by the Congressional Republicans.
    Granted, Ted Cruz DID stand up and TRY to keep his campaign promises, I’ll give him that.
    I’ll even go out on a limb and predict a “Trump-Cruz” ticket in the election.
    Christie and Fiorina have dropped out, Ben Carson is close to doing the same, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio just don’t impress anyone.
    John Kasich is a flash in the pan.
    Democrat voters regard Hillary as the dusty old book on the shelf, that nobody wants to read. Bernie Sanders is beating her (and he beat her in Iowa, if the truth be known) because he’s the “anybody but Hillary” candidate.
    And most certainly, that leaves the door wide open for Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or (3rd party) Michael Bloomberg.

    1. Trump isn’t anti-establishment and he isn’t Conservative. He and the Progressive media have pushed the false narrative that hes anti-establishment on Republicans and so far the result is the elimination of a real anti-establishment Conservative from the race. And that’s was their goal.

      If Trump were anti-establishment would he have spent decades funding the campaigns of establishment candidates? Because he did. If he were “anti-establishment” would he spend decades endorsing establishment candidates? Because he did. If he were “anti-establishment” then would the establishment of the NCGOP invite him to be a keynote speaker at their state convention a few years ago? Because they did. …and on and on. He’s trolling the Republican party.

  3. That exit poll result of 50% of those voting in the GOP primary saying that they had been ”betrayed” by the GOP leadership in Congress shows that there is still a malaise among GOP voters toward the GOP establishment leadership. Putting up Ryan in place of Boehner has not changed any minds. It is the same ole, same ole.

    National polls on this feeling of betrayal among GOP voters have put the numbers at 61% and 65%, and if you look at the milder term ”disapproval” it is over 70%. That number is probably a bit lower in New Hampshire due to it being a more liberal state than most and to the very high number of independents, who are more liberal on average, voting in the GOP primary.

    This is still very dangerous territory for the GOP, which can no longer count completely on the ”lesser of the evils” vote., If Republicans nominate someone who smells like Boehner / McConnell / Ryan for president, then they could easily snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. The candidates still standing who give a strong whiff of the DC establishment are Bush, Rubio, and Kasich. Any of these offer potential disaster in November from GOP voters who feel betrayed by the GOP establishment and may stay home or just sit out the presidential race.

    Cruz, Trump, and Carson are the candidates who will fire up the base. However, I am afraid that many base voters have blinders on as to Trump. Trump funded the Democrats in 2010 and the GOP establishment in the 2014 primaries. Trump has also taken some very different positions on major issues not too long ago. At the end of the day, can he really be trusted that he is genuinely on the side of the GOP base in 2016?

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