#ncpol: Holding v. Ellmers, and other redistricting scuttlebutt
Yep. Nee-Nee v. Big George. THAT was the hot topic of discussion on Jones Street yesterday.
The new 2nd district includes a good chunk of what Holding has been representing in Washington. (The new 13th has been shifted out west to include a sliver of Guilford and Rowan counties, all of Davie and Davidson, and most all of Iredell.)
The new 2nd includes a lot of Holding’s family and close friends, as well as a portion of the First Citizens – Holding family home base in Johnston County. It would be a serious 
piece of home cooking for ol’ George, while Ellmers would be spending a lot of time getting to know new people. Contrary to a lot of conventional wisdom out there, I don’t see the new map doing her a lot of favors.
As far as the 12th goes — it’s represented by Greensboro’s Alma Adams, but will be contained wholly in Mecklenburg County. Other media reports — as well as some Jones Street scuttlebutt — indicate that former state senator Malcolm Graham (who lost to Adams in her first primary for the seat) is doing a lot of crowing about now having ” a seat to run for.” Graham v. Adams redux?
The new 13th screams EARLY
CHRISTMAS GIFT for some lucky, well-connected politico. It appears to be clearly a Republican seat. For conservatives, the district may present an opportunity. Scott Keadle — a former AFP rep and Club for Growth beneficiary who lost in the 2012 primary to Richard Hudson — has roots in Iredell and Rowan counties. Former state Rep. Frank Mitchell — who clashed often with Jim Black and Richard Morgan — has roots in Iredell County. Neither of those two have many fans in the Raleigh establishment, so I am convinced there is someone else out there they had in mind when they drew this district.
A lot of this will be moot if the Supreme Court blesses the current maps or issues some kind of stay. But if that doesn’t happen, the honorables will have to produce something — likely this — to pass on to the judges for their blessing before any voting for the US House can begin.
This would put Ellmers back in Franklin County, where the County GOP org banned her in 2011. She’ll have an awful hard time of it there. I wonder how this will effect candidate filings? There is certainly not any time left for newly interested parties to file for that seat.
Refund and refile in District of choice.
The back room talk is that Lewis had nothing to do with the maps, they were strictly computer generated. No one was trying to help or hurt anyone. Now the Senate and House are moving things around to get Representatives back in their district.
Congressman George Holding would defeat Renee, handily. She doesn’t know the difference between Conetoe and Kenly, and never will, at this point!
Districts residents aren’t exactly trading up with Holding, though, he’s just better at hiding what he is than she is.
Agreed Holding voted in 2014 for the cromnibus which funded Obama Care, illegal executive amnesty, failure to secure the borders and all of Obama’s dreams. Holding is just as bad as Ellmers just a better liar.
DC Republicans apparently had some input on this map, and I am sure they made sure that Jim Duncan was royally screwed in the process. The DC establishment hates upstart conservatives more than they hate Democrats. When national conservative groups got in behind Duncan, the hatred of the DC establishment for him grew white hot. The maps should not have even been shown to the stinking DC establishment.
New 13th will entice more GOP candidates than can be counted on two hands: several current/former legislators (e.g., Andrew Brock), several current/former county commissioners, several current/former municipal officials, several businessmen, several first-time candidates, several perennial candidates, et al.
So who wins and who loses?
Having two John Boehner Republican incumbents running against each other in the new 2nd – Ellmers and Holding – should open the door to a split in that vote which could allow a genuine conservative to upset both of them. It may be too far for Jim Duncan to carpetbag, although with what has been done to him in redistricting that may not be as big an issue as it normally would. There may be others who could take advantage of this split in the establishment.
Rucho drew the 13th as a parting gift to his good friend Julia Howard.
Lewis/Moore blessed it to get her out of the House.
Julia Howard is an old Richard Morgan crony. RIchard Morgan had a lot of the same tendencies as Tim Moore; chumming up with the Democrats, and carrying water for the special interests. The idea of Howard running for Congress is no more appealing than the idea of Hillary running for president or Richard Morgan returning to politics.
The Andrew Brock theory makes a lot more sense.