The new 2nd district includes a good chunk of what Holding has been representing in Washington. (The new 13th has been shifted out west to include a sliver of Guilford and Rowan counties, all of Davie and Davidson, and most all of Iredell.)
The new 2nd includes a lot of Holding’s family and close friends, as well as a portion of the First Citizens – Holding family home base in Johnston County. It would be a serious piece of home cooking for ol’ George, while Ellmers would be spending a lot of time getting to know new people. Contrary to a lot of conventional wisdom out there, I don’t see the new map doing her a lot of favors.
As far as the 12th goes — it’s represented by Greensboro’s Alma Adams, but will be contained wholly in Mecklenburg County. Other media reports — as well as some Jones Street scuttlebutt — indicate that former state senator Malcolm Graham (who lost to Adams in her first primary for the seat) is doing a lot of crowing about now having ” a seat to run for.” Graham v. Adams redux?
The new 13th screams EARLY CHRISTMAS GIFT for some lucky, well-connected politico. It appears to be clearly a Republican seat. For conservatives, the district may present an opportunity. Scott Keadle — a former AFP rep and Club for Growth beneficiary who lost in the 2012 primary to Richard Hudson — has roots in Iredell and Rowan counties. Former state Rep. Frank Mitchell — who clashed often with Jim Black and Richard Morgan — has roots in Iredell County. Neither of those two have many fans in the Raleigh establishment, so I am convinced there is someone else out there they had in mind when they drew this district.
A lot of this will be moot if the Supreme Court blesses the current maps or issues some kind of stay. But if that doesn’t happen, the honorables will have to produce something — likely this — to pass on to the judges for their blessing before any voting for the US House can begin.