A ‘dumpster fire’ downeast ????

The First Congressional District was gerrymandered at the request of President Trump to make it more likely to elect a Republican.  The political class was elated when the deed went down. Much excitement was afoot about moving the partisan split in the state’s congressional delegation from 10-4 to 11-3.

Then, reality set in.  Some of the initial polls indicated we were going to have a close one on our hands.  The RNC’s early polling showed a tie between GOPer Laurie Buckhout and Democrat Don Davis.

But then the tsunami of negative ads hit. Consultants began running wild.

The state’s US Senate race has reached out-of-hand status for the GOP.  Polling gives Democrat Roy Cooper a BIG lead, and DC is diverting its money from North Carolina to more competitive states.

There has been some worry of a trickle-down effect for some of the down-ballot races in North Carolina.  New polling – one from Democrats, one from Republicans – has emerged showing leads for congressman Don Davis ranging from 8 to 10 points.

Polling released by the Davis campaign shows Davis leading 47-39 over the Republican Buckhout.  One of the more interesting findings has been the shift in the favorable / unfavorable ratio for each candidate:

Check out the vote share for the candidates:

The race appears tighter when it is just Davis v. Buckhout.  But add in the Libertarian – who will be on the November ballot – and the Davis lead widens.

But things get even more interesting when you factor in polling done by a Republican Outer Banks-based group.  Read their four page memo HERE1, HERE2,  HERE 3 and HERE4.

Here are the meat-and-potatoes on this one:

[…] Republicans hold a four-point generic ballot lead in this district that voted for Donald Trump by 12 points in 2024. Despite that, Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by 8 and Don Davis leads Laurie Buckhout by 10.

Putting this in perspective, Mark Robinson lost this district by three points in 2024. Despite the bad numbers, there’s still a chance for Buckhout and even Whatley to turn this race around, but their campaign strategies need a 180 degree makeover – like NOW. […]

A Republican pollster finding a GOP candidate in a R+4 district LOSING by TEN POINTS ???

Two polls – taken about the same time – by each party with results that are right in line with each other.  What is going on here?

THAT is the question I posed to a quartet of political pros with ties to North Carolina and lots of experience in state, local and national races.  All agreed to talk to us on background.  We’ve found all to be pretty doggone perceptive about elections we’ve watched over the years in our fair state.

Lack of enthusiasm and plenty of outright anger.  

The group agreed that the GOP has a significant problem with base voters even bothering to show up.   The national media is trying hard to suggest that a massive wave of anger at an unpopular president is killing GOP candidates down the ballot.

The group agreed that we have two factors at work: (1) establishment Republicans angry mainly about gas prices, the Iran War, and inflation, and (2) MAGA Republicans angry at a perceived failure by the GOP-controlled White House and Congress to seriously follow-through on any of the 2024 campaign promises.

Said one group member: “Voters are asking: If you haven’t done any of this in the past two years, why should anyone believe you’ll do it over the next two?”

A misguided strategy.  

As one group member put it: “The Republicans are busily trying to tie all Democrat candidates to the DSA.  They may have a point with Anita Earls. Look at the top three Democrats in North Carolina – Roy Cooper, Don Davis and Jamie Ager.   They’ve all done a great job of putting forth a calming, moderate posture. Cooper is clearly the most liberal of those three.  But it’s hard to credibly tie him or the other two to Abdul in Michigan or AOC. And people know Cooper.  They survived eight years of him as governor.”

What would work better?

Most of the group thought a renewed emphasis on the three constitutional questions on the North Carolina ballot might help with Republican get-out-the-vote efforts.

Said one group member: “Right now you’ve got a significant amount of base voters not planning to show up.  Explain those amendments to people. They’d definitely generate some excitement among GOP base voters.  These are people who – when they show up to vote on those – very well may continue on to vote for Whatley or Stevens or Buckhout or Balkcom.  Somebody has got to light that fire.”

Surprises.

All agreed those will be the theme for news coverage following the election. We were told to expect to see people lose that you never, never ever expected to lose.

If the margins of the Whatley, Buckhout, Stevens, and Balkcom races continue to grow in the favor of the Democrats, we could very well see some trickle-down damage for GOP candidates in down-ballot races.

All agreed that we’ll see some surprising people losing their races around the country.  Nationally, Democrat candidates who have gone too far left – think DSA — may end up ceding once blue territory to Republicans. In North Carolina, I was told, many of such surprises will likely be to the benefit of Democrats.

We already told you about the two incumbent congressmen with internal polls showing them deadlocked with under-funded, low name ID opponents. 

Let’s not forget The General Assembly.  The Bourbon Tour scandal. Cronyism. Medicaid expansion. Casinos. 

The damage from base voters not showing up is not likely to just stop short of Jones Street.

This will not be some great triumph for liberalism or the Democrat Party.  In the end it’s about shooting oneself in one’s foot.