Some NC incumbents experiencing poll-shock

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I believe the big story after election day will be the folks who lost that no one expected to lose.  You know, entrenched incumbents who rarely campaign (or have to campaign).

The word on the street – that is, a street populated by political pros — is that at least TWO incumbent members of Congress from our fair state currently find themselves within TWO POINTS of their low-budget, low-name-ID opponents.  Those findings, I’m told, come from internals – polls conducted by a campaign itself.  (It’s hard to scream about bias when you did the poll yourself.) 

This was supposed to be a year where the GOP in our state was going to see a net gain of ONE congressional seat.  Right now, the way things stand, the NCGOP could see a net loss anywhere from ONE to THREE congressional seats in North Carolina.  (Best possibility?  A wash, where we stay AS-IS.)

My info is a lot more solid at the congressional level.  Though, from watching the General Assembly these days, it appears many of them are looking at not-so-comforting polls as well. (For instance, the sudden interest in suspending the gas tax.)

The media and the Democrats are ready to crow about this all being a rejection of Trump and conservatism.

Honestly, there is probably some anger at how the Trump White House has meddled at the state level in elections.  But the real meat in the argument is the anger over how the GOP and Team Trump promised all of this good stuff in 2024 that never happened.  The GOPe is now promising how things will be better if all of those GOPers who didn’t deliver for you get reelected in 2026.

We’ve had majorities in Congress – and ownership of The White House – for two years now. Dramatic change got sold to us.  Yet, we have a lot of Republicans who can’t or won’t even buy into the concepts of lower taxes, less spending, and smaller government.  Remember the hissy-fit over DOGE. 

I still don’t think a lot of the GOPe in Raleigh and DC get what they’re looking at. They’re out there screaming about communism and boys-in-the-girls-locker-room.  Even while a visit to the gas station or the grocery store requires you to bring along an armored car full of cash. 

Voters aren’t out there swooning over Democrats.  Even local polling shows that, while Roy Cooper is winning big over Mike Whatley, the Democrats are not benefiting from his success.  Democrat voters are enthusiastic as hell.  Republican voters? Not so much.

Your average Democrat voter is – right now – more excited about showing up to vote than your average GOP voter is.  Many of them may not even show up.

The GOPe has about a month to figure out how to deal with this problem.