#NCSEN: Poll shows GOP primary, November general both still wide open

capitolAn American Insights poll, taken earlier this month, of 611 registered North Carolina voters finds a tight GOP primary and close general election in the state’s US Senate race.

(If you haven’t heard of American Insights, you’re not alone.  The lefties at The Daily Kos are a bit perplexed, as well.)

The survey, conducted February 11-15, found House speaker Thom Tillis leading the GOP primary field with 11 percent, followed by Mark Harris with 7 percent, Greg Brannon with 4 percent, and Heather Grant with 4 percent.  A whopping 55 percent of respondents remained undecided.   The margin of error  was +/- 7.6  percent for the primary survey (an outrageously high one that raises questions about the poll’s integrity), with a total of 168 self-identified Republicans participating. 

For the general election, the poll tested Brannon, Harris & Tillis against Hagan.  According to the survey, Hagan leads Brannon 38 to 36.  She leads Tillis 38 to 35 percent, and leads Harris 39 to 35 percent.  Margin of error here was +/- 4 percent. 

The survey looked at how each GOPer fared with the almighty “Independents.” Harris vs. Hagan produced a 37 to 25 percent split.  Brannon vs. Hagan was a 38 to 28 percent split. Tillis vs. Hagan results in a 35 to 30 split among “Independents.”

The survey found Hagan pulling 74 percent of the Democrat vote against Brannon AND Harris.  Her support among Democrats drops to 70 percent with Tillis. 

The poll tested voters between 18 and 34 years old.  Among the younger voters,  Brannon trails Hagan in the general by 34 percent to 37 percent.  Tillis trails Hagan in this demographic by 29 to 38 percent.  Harris trails Hagan by 29 to 41 percent.

The survey found 23% of voters opting  for a candidate with a Business background.  A Faith-Based professional background was the second most popular in a candidate at 14%.  A Finance background polled very closely behind Faith-Based, also at 14%.  13% of voters prefer a background in Health Care while 9% are partial to Law and only 7% most prefer a professional background in Government.

9 comments for “#NCSEN: Poll shows GOP primary, November general both still wide open

  1. jimmy roberts
    February 28, 2014 at 12:42 pm

    Probably a little too early for polls to mean much.

    With all the outside money coming in to both parties I imagine it will be a close call right up until the final vote is counted.

    I have already seen ads about Kay and Obamacare and I have seen ads indicating that Tillis is the father of Obamacare.

    • Raphael
      February 28, 2014 at 1:10 pm

      Tilli$ strongly supported legislation to establish a state Obamacare exchange in North Carolina and got it through the House, but it died in the Senate, fortunately. Tilli$ deserves to be eviscerated in the primary over that, and I am glad to here that there are ads out doing so.

      Obamacare was a killer issue for the GOP in 2010. It disappeared off the radar in 2012, because the liberal media and GOP establishment steered Romney to the presidential nomination, and Romney could not use that issue due to his own history with Romneycare. Now, in North Carolina we are faced with a prospective nominee, Tilli$, who cannot use Obamacare due to his own history of supporting the state Obamacare exchanges.

      If Republicans want to win the NC Senate seat in 2014 , our battle cry in the primary needs to be ”NOT TILLI$”. But we are again facing a GOP establishment and a liberal media who are trying to push this total dud of a candidate upon us.

  2. jr cooper
    February 28, 2014 at 1:44 pm

    So who do we have left?

    Some do not want Tillis because he is GOP establishment.
    Some do not want Harris because he is a Hucabean.
    Some do not want Brannon because a jury recently found him liable for misleading investors in a business venture.

    Who are the other candidates? I love the name Heather but I do not know anything about her. Then someone said a City Mayor was in the race. And I do recall seeing that the Snyder gentleman was once again in the race.

    What to do?

    • John Gjertsen
      February 28, 2014 at 3:06 pm

      Brannons civil suit is on appeal, and hopefully you’ve read the earlier piece on the Haymaker http://dailyhaymaker.com/?p=7230 that details why the jury got that one completely wrong.

      I still back Brannon, because he alone seems to understand that free markets, not government, create prosperity.

      • jr cooper
        March 1, 2014 at 4:02 pm

        “…….the jury got that one completely wrong.”

        Juries do sometimes get it wrong. I think they got it wrong when they found Stephen LaRoque guilty. However, he has been granted a new trial just as Brannon has appealed the jury decision.

        • Raphael
          March 1, 2014 at 10:31 pm

          I see that you are a consistent supporter of Richard Morgan Republicans – LaRoque and Tilli$.

          • jr cooper
            March 2, 2014 at 1:00 pm

            I just don’t see why the jury did not get it wrong in the LaRoque case if they got it wrong in the Brannon case.

            How do you know that Brannon is innocent and that LaRoque is not?

            I hope you are not letting political bias influence your view of these two jury decisions.

    • Kathy
      March 1, 2014 at 12:26 am

      As John referenced below, you should take time to listen to the 45 min. radio interview with the company CEO in the suit. The entire suit is unseemly. There is something very wrong here.

  3. Marm
    February 28, 2014 at 2:29 pm

    If you pick a candidate by what you read in the media, you will be all over the place. Stick to your principles, This particular poll is more than suspect and is too small to be effectively broken down into subgroups.
    Only one poll will matter.

Comments are closed.