The Streak, Mike Whatley, ‘The Mustache’, Ted Budd aaaaaand the $$$$
According to Real Clear Politics, Roy Cooper (D) is 29-0 in publicly-released polls on his race for the US Senate against Mike Whatley (R). And there are still about six weeks until Election Night.
I cannot recall another case where someone was down in every poll of his (or her) race and won. The average of all the polling results results in an 8.5 percent win for Cooper. If that holds, it will tie the 2008 Elizabeth Dole loss as the worst beatdown of a NCGOP US Senate candidate in more than 50 years.
If Team Whatley does manage to pull this out, it will be an event on par with “Dewey defeats Truman.”
Two new polls just got released. Quantus Insights surveyed 688 likely voters about the race from 9/21-9/22. They give Cooper the edge, 48.4 to 43.3 and offer these insights:
Unaffiliated voters and women give Cooper a five-point edge, while Whatley leads among rural and older voters.
Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by 5.1 percentage points in Quantus Insights’ latest North Carolina survey, placing the Democrat ahead in a competitive Senate race 41 days before Election Day. (See presentation and cross tabs here).
The survey, conducted September 21–22 among 686 likely voters, finds Cooper at 48.4% and Whatley at 43.3%. Another 3.6% are undecided, 1.6% support a minor candidate or someone else, and 2.9% say they would not vote in the Senate contest.
Cooper’s advantage rests on a coalition of women, younger voters, urban and suburban residents, and registered unaffiliated voters. Whatley draws his strongest support from Republicans, rural voters and voters age 65 and older. Both candidates have mostly consolidated their party’s registered voters, making the electorate outside those partisan bases central to the contest.
Among registered Democrats, Cooper receives 92% support. Whatley wins 89% of registered Republicans. The larger separation comes among unaffiliated voters, who favor Cooper 51% to 35%. That 16-point advantage gives Cooper an important source of support beyond his own party.
The gender divide is substantial. Women favor Cooper 52% to 38%, while men favor Whatley 49% to 44%. Cooper’s 14-point lead among women more than offsets his five-point deficit among men in the statewide result.
Age produces another clear division. Cooper leads 55% to 34% among voters under 30 and 54% to 38% among those ages 30–44. His advantage narrows to 49% to 44% among voters ages 45–64. Among voters 65 and older, Whatley leads 51% to 41%. The pattern underscores how the balance between younger and older participants could shape the final result.
The geographic divide is equally pronounced. Urban voters favor Cooper 59% to 31%, and suburban voters back him 51% to 41%. Rural voters favor Whatley 62% to 32%. Cooper’s suburban advantage complements his urban strength, while Whatley’s rural margin provides a substantial Republican counterweight.
Among the three largest media markets, Cooper leads 57% to 33% in Raleigh-Durham and 49% to 46% in Charlotte. Greensboro is closely divided, with Whatley at 47% and Cooper at 46%. These results show why strength in the Triangle alone does not describe the statewide race: the other major population centers are considerably more competitive.
Education and race also separate the candidates’ coalitions. Whatley leads 47% to 42% among voters with a high school education or some college. Cooper leads 57% to 39% among college graduates and 55% to 36% among those with graduate education. White voters favor Whatley 53% to 40%, while Black voters favor Cooper 80% to 9%.
The result from out survey is closer than the roughly nine-point Cooper advantage in the six polling aggregates compiled in the report. Cooper’s 48.4% falls within those averages’ range; Whatley’s 43.3% exceeds each of them. The distinction is stronger Republican support in this survey, rather than unusually weak support for Cooper. Comparisons across different surveys do not, by themselves, establish a trend.
Removing respondents who say they would not vote in the Senate race leaves Cooper ahead 49.8% to 44.6%. His advantage therefore changes little under that alternative presentation.
Cooper enters the final stretch ahead, but the survey does not establish a decisive lead approaching double digits. The design-adjusted margin of error is ±4.2 percentage points for individual full-sample estimates; uncertainty around the difference between the candidates is approximately ±8 points. Subgroup uncertainty is larger.
The survey used SMS invitations to active registered voters and likely-voter calibration to Quantus Insights’ turnout model. Results were weighted by sex, age, education, metro type, congressional district, race and ethnicity, and party registration.
Quantus last polled this race 3/31-4/1 where they found a Cooper lead of 49-44.
A survey from YouGov, performed 9/15 to 9/18 with 3875 likely voters, found Cooper with a 53-42 lead over Whatley. Interestingly, four percent of those who said they would vote for Whatley said they could be persuaded to change to Cooper. Two percent of those who said they were voting for Cooper said they could be convinced to move to Whatley.
Both major parties take a hit in the favorability department. Forty-eight percent of respondents found the Republican Party “very unfavorable.”
But 39 percent of respondents found the Democrat Party “very unfavorable.”
Only 13 percent found the Democrats “very favorable.” Just 17 percent found the GOP “very favorable.”
The survey found a 39 percent approval rating for Donald Trump.
And now for Ted Budd.
Our junior senator has been conspicuously quiet and below radar during this Senate campaign. We caught him trying to raise money for himself recently by sending out letters attacking Roy Cooper but failing to mention Mike Whatley. (You know, the guy actually running against Cooper.)
BTW, Budd is not up for reelection until 2028. Whatley is the guy in need of cash – and other assistance — right now.
Well-placed sources tell us that at least two more Budd fundraising letters – both targeting Cooper and, again, failing to mention Whatley – have gone out since we did our first article.
Raising money for yourself – by targeting the Democrat candidate in another race without lifting a finger to help your party’s candidate. Where’s the teamwork? (*Where is the love, Teddy?*)
We blame this bone-headed fundraising maneuver on The Handlebar-Mustachioed One.™
Somehow, Budd got elected to the Senate with this guy’s, um, *help* with communications. Campaign press releases and briefings were often more about The Mustachioed One than the candidate himself.
The Mustache took a very high-profile role with senator Phil Berger‘s campaign as Berger’s March reelection bid spectacularly imploded. He also *helped* out with Jason Saine’s Greater Carolina – currently transforming into one hell of a hot mess / political scandal.
Frankly, we’re surprised that – after all that debacle – Budd didn’t change the locks and send The Mustache away.
Budd must have been feeling some heat about his ill-timed fundraising letters. The RNC released some video featuring Budd waxing lovingly about Whatley’s “vital” role in securing all the aid that western North Carolina needed.
You know, I have some friends from WNC who remember all that a wee bit differently than Ted.
