The survey was conducted October 6-7 and involved 970 likely voters. Here’s what they found:
This is the first survey of the race to include “leaners,” those who initially are undecided or prefer a third-party candidate and are asked again to pick between the Republican and the Democrat.
North Carolina now moves from Leans Democrat back to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports 2014 Senate Balance of Power rankings. Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take control of the Senate, and they’ve long counted on North Carolina to be one of those pickups.
Among the 85% of Tar Heel voters who say they are definitely going to vote in this election, the race is a tie at 48% apiece. But just 67% say they are certain at this point who they will vote for. Among those who are certain of their vote, Tillis leads 57% to 43%, but among those who could still change their minds, Hagan has a better than two-to-one lead – 56% to 25%.
Hagan was elected in 2008 with 53% support. Tillis is the current speaker of the North Carolina House. The two debated again last night. This survey was taken the night before and the night of the debate.
Hagan has the support of 80% of North Carolina Democrats. Tillis has the backing of 84% of the state’s Republicans and leads by just three points among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.
The survey has a +-3 percent margin of error. In early September, Rasmussen had Hagan up 45-39 over Tillis. In August, they had Tillis up 45-40.