#NCSEN: New Time Warner poll has UNDECIDED leading GOP field

vote124Time Warner Cable News is out with a new poll showing Tillis, Brannon, and Harris leading the Republican field to oppose Kay Hagan in November.  The problem for those guys?  They are all lagging behind a candidate named UNDECIDED.

The survey, taken in the last week of March, has undecided taking 34 percent of the vote.  State House speaker Thom Tillis pulls down 23 percent, while Cary physician Greg Brannon draws 15 percent of the vote.  Charlotte pastor Mark Harris polls 11 percent.  (UPDATE: There is a 4.8 percent margin of error on the GOP primary poll.  That’s ridiculously high, and brings the credibility of the survey into question.  The head-to-head matchups for November have a 2.6 percent margin of error.) 

confusedThey survey found Hagan with a 50 percent unfavorable rating — a dangerous position for an incumbent. confusedold Head-to-head matchups with each of the eight Republicans found Hagan LOSING to ANY GOP nominee.   Harris polled best against Hagan in a general election matchup (47-43).  Tillis showed a 46-45 lead while Brannon showed a 47-45 lead.

I talked these numbers over with a couple of veteran election watchers and political pros, who gave me two different ways to look at it all.  Undecideds normally break against an incumbent.  If Tillis gets successfully defined as part of the government in Raleigh and the GOP establishment, he could be IDed as the de facto “incumbent”, and the undecided vote could break against him. 

Another take on these numbers?  That 34 percent undecided crowd is likely people who have NO IDEA who any of these people are — and have no way to tell the difference.  An avalanche of positive advertising late in the game could give them a name to latch onto and push a lot of them one way or another.  Reports indicate that Karl Rove and his team are preparing to bombard the state with pro-Tillis ads late in the primary cycle.  This very well could be going right along with the Tillis playbook.  

Time Warner Cable News is hosting a televised debate for the GOP primary field on April 22.

8 thoughts on “#NCSEN: New Time Warner poll has UNDECIDED leading GOP field

  1. I think it will be like voting for the best Super Bowl ads.

    The winning candidate will be the one who had the best ads and who was able to pay to get them out to the voters.

    Big money and good ads will win this one.

    1. Funny. David Dewhurst and Trey Greyson thought the same thing. Is that why we have Senators Ted Cruz and Rand Paul in office instead of them?

      1. “Big money and good ads…”
        Arthur Williams, his three Stooges campaign managers, Tillis, Hayes et al. thought that too. If people are paying attention big money can be beat.

  2. Most of the undecideds I know are not yet certain which ”NOT TILLI$” candidate they will vote for. They have already decided not to vote for Tilli$, but then those are mostly political activists. Among the general population, many of those who are undecided are those who are not interested enough at this point to even show up at the polls.

    This poll again confirms that the civil case did Brannon absolutely no political harm.

    As to how activists, who will almost certainly show up at the polls, are going, I think the straw poll at the Wake County GOP convention is a better indicator. With over 500 delegates and alternates attending, it was a large turnout for such an off year convention, and the straw poll broke as follows: Brannon 45%, Tillis 33%, Harris 20%, others 2%.

    It looks to me like a runoff, and if Tillis is in it, then whoever is in it with him will beat him and be the nominee. A Brannon vs. Harris runoff would be a bit harder to figure.

  3. Brannon is coming on strong. One thing that would get him more votes would be to put his website back up, “FoundersTruth.org.”

    I would think the hits on that site would be record breaking. I love to read that stuff myself. That one about the TSA putting shock bracelets on us was a good one. And my head started itching on that one about “them” planting microchips in my brain. I might even volunteer for a brain microchip because I keep forgetting to take out the trash.

    An article on the whereabouts of BigFoot would be nice. Is Elvis still working at that Food Lion in Wallace, NC? Where are the FEMA camps in North Carolina?

    That website would get a lot of attention. It needs to be put back up. People love reading that stuff. Don’t tell me you do not glance at those magazines at the checkout counter.

    1. Instead of fantasy positions like you mention on Brannon which simply do not exist, maybe Tilli$ should try being honest about his real record. He should not be dishonest with voters by calling himself conservative when in fact he had a very liberal record in the General Assembly on the respected Civitas Conservative Effectiveness Rating. Tilli$ should not claim to be against Obamacare when he called it a ”good idea” and rammed a bill to establishment a state Obamacare exchange through the NC House. He should tell voters that he wants to substantially raise their electric rates by supporting green boondoggles like the renewable energy mandate, which profits a bank he owns a bunch of stock in. Tilli$ should not speak out of both sides of his mouth on illegal immigration but ‘fess up to all (nor just the farmers) that he supports amnesty for illegal aliens.

      Tilli$ has a real record and it is real lousy.

      1. I must admit I love conspiracy theories. That one about the fluoride in the water has always fascinated me. And then there is Area 21 or Agenda 21 or something like that. Is it near Area 51? The History Channel has some good programs on Area 51 and UFO’s. I see where this week Bill Clinton has joined the group that thinks aliens will be landing. Bill was a good recruitment for the cause. Is he still a Democrat?

        1. Are conspiracy delusions the reason that Tilli$ keeps trying to oust conservative legislators by redistricting or by running establishment progressive primary opponents against them?

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