Another new poll: Cooper over Whatley by EIGHT
The Cook Political Report, a publication that Washington folks pay close attention to, has officially changed the North Carolina US Senate race from “A Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat.”
Speaking of “Washington folks,” we should all *thank* them for all the arm-twisting and field-clearing they did to force Mike Whatley on us as our candidate. *The best choice to beat Roy Cooper and hold the seat? Yeah, riiiiiiiiight.*
Since Whatley’s July entrance into the race, there has been exactly one poll — showing a TIE — that the Whatley team can take as good news. Beyond that one, there are over a DOZEN showing leads of anywhere from three points to twenty-four points for Democrat Roy Cooper.
The latest poll comes from High Point University. (We all know High Point, right?)
This survey, taken from March 26 to April 6 reached out to 800 registered voters (703 qualified as likely voters). It found 50 percent for Roy Cooper and 42 percent for Mike Whatley.
You have to go back to 2008 for the reelection bid of the last senator we allowed DC to pick for us in order to find a Democrat candidate with the kind of leads we’re seeing here. (At least there were a handful of polls that year where Elizabeth Dole had a lead.) Kay Hagan won the senate seat that year by 8.5 percent.
Here are Richard Burr‘s 2004 results — a two point win over Erskine Bowles. As you can see, John Edwards, in 1998, and Elizabeth Dole, in 2002, won by the kind of margins we see Roy Cooper posting this year. (Of course, Edwards knocked off a sitting senator. Dole won an open seat.)
As you can see below, Richard Burr in 2010 posted one of the biggest GOP wins in a US Senate race we’ve seen in a long time.
In 2016, he knocked off Deborah Ross by 5.7 percent.
Thom Tillis beat the embattled Kay Hagan in 2014 by 1.7 percent. Tillis increased his victory margin to 1.8 percent in 2020 against Cal Cunningham.
Ted Budd knocked off Cheri Beasley by a whopping 3.2 percent in a 2022 open seat battle.
Again, Roy Cooper is leading Mike Whatley by an average of 6.8 points right now.
I can hear some of you saying: “OH, there’s plenty of time.”
To those of you in that frame of thinking, I have to ask: When is the last time you saw a GOP candidate in North Carolina climb out of a hole the size Mr. Whatley appears to be in right now AND WIN?
As a Republican voter, I’d be worried about all of the other GOP candidates on the ballot who could get dragged down by this mess in the US Senate race. The Democrats are excited about Roy Cooper‘s prospects. They’re going to be out en masse with bells on.
Besides the US Senate, we have all kinds of important judicial races and legislative contests. Neither DC nor Raleigh are doing much to help. They’re giving us photo ops and *show* hearings, but little of substance.
(Neither of those two crowds has bothered to pass a budget. Still spending through the roof. Still need to bring a Brinks truck with you to the grocery store and gas station.)
These poles always make me laugh. They talked to 800 people. So what? That’s not a true representation.
First, it’s P-O-L-L-S.
This is the second comment we’ve seen on this site which makes it clear to us that you don’t understand polling or campaign politics. That’s a shame because we understand you are allegedly somebody important within the state Republican Party.
Polls are done by people who understand statistics. They’ve taken a few courses and understand how to compute an adequate sample for a survey with a respectable confidence level and margin-of-error. The lower the margin of error, the better. The higher the confidence level, the better,
Most credible polls you see tend to connect with 400 to 800 people. Likely voters are also more credible than registered voters.
It’s always funny to hear people hollering “Don’t believe the polls.” Sometimes, they have a point. But in cases like with Mark Robinson and Michael Whatley they deliver a painful message for certain campaigns and their supporters.
Jackie, please think of the family before you speak publicly again on topics like this.
I’m curious in what way you believe Jackie Weyhenmeyer is “important” in the state Republican Party?