NBC August poll: Clinton, Cooper AND Ross up in North Carolina
Oh, the hits just keep coming.
NBC and Marist conducted a poll of North Carolina adults from August 4 to August 10. According to those folks, November is going to look very good for the Democrats.
Before I hit you with the numbers, let’s look at their methodology:
This survey of 1,030 adults was conducted August 4th through August 10th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal . Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of North Carolina were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers.Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of North Carolina from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc.The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population.Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male.
This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region, except for race, which is from the 2010 census. Results are statistically significant within ±3.1 percentage points. There are 921 registered voters.
First, WHY would we care what people who are not registered to vote think about the upcoming elections? They can’t participate. They won’t be a factor.
Second, WHY survey random phone numbers instead of obtaining lists of registered voters? Campaigns do it all the time. (Longtime followers of polling KNOW likely voters are the best measure of an election.)
And WHY ask for the “youngest” male in the household? (An empty-headed sociology major home from college is more likely to say what the drivebys want than, say, HIS DAD paying the bills.)
And you just have to love that last paragraph where they talk about how they cook the findings.
Polls released this early are typically for shaping public opinion. Look back at past elections, you’ll see that polls taken closer to the actual vote tend to tighten up and more accurately reflect what actually happens.
Okay, enough of my preaching and ON to the numbers. In July, this poll had Burr leading 48-41. NOW, it has him down to Ross 48-46. 
In July, the poll had Cooper leading McCrory 49-45. Now, Cooper leads 51-44.
And, last but not least, the August poll has Clinton leading Trump 45-36 in North Carolina. (THAT result is the hardest one for me to believe. Trump may be down, but not by that much.)
I can hear it now from the GOPe — *”See? See? The Donald is dragging us ALL DOWN! If you had just listened to us and picked Marco, or JEB! or Kasich, we’d be in MUCH better shape!”*
Rush had an interesting point the other day that I just had to offer an “Amen” to: Maybe it’s time to shift from telling us what a bad person your opponent is and toward telling us the great things you are GOING TO DO if we vote for you. Compare what you’re offering to what your opponent is offering. Educate the voters of the consequences of their November choices.
People are scared about the future of the state and the country. They are being filled with a bunch of crap by the 
drive-bys and their radical leftist comrades. They want things to get better. (Statism will not accomplish that mission.)
We took to the streets in 2009 — and stormed the polls in 2010 — seeking relief from statism. Yet, the folks we entrusted to provide that relief have not put up much — if any — of a fight against statist creep. They’ve sneered at us and dismissed us with a wave while schmoozing and boot-licking the special interests with the big checks seeking to keep the taxpayer spigot open and flowing. JUST LIKE THE FOLKS WE THREW OUT.
There are really three types of polls, those of all adults, those of registered voters, and those of likely voters. The first tilts most to Democrats rather consistently, and the last most consistently to Republicans, but it is also the most accurate of what will happen on election day. An ”all adults” sample is really pretty meaningless.
Asking for the youngest male also tends to skew the poll. I worked for a group that hired Gallup on several occaisions to do some polling. When confronted with multiple people in a household, they asked for the person with the next upcoming birthday, thus not skewing the poll by age or sex. The group who did this poll is either very unprofessional or deliberately trying to skew it.
There is another factor that shows this polling firm was not competent or professional. They polled on both a Friday and a Wednesday. They do not give the percentages called on each day. Campaigns ordering polls which they want to be accurate usually direct that no polling calls be done on Wednesday, which as church night, underrepresents Republicans, or on Fridays or Saturdays, date nights for singles, who tilt more Democrat, and thus underrepresents Democrats. Calling on either night gives you a bad sample, and they do not necessarily just cancel each other out.
I have never heard of a political professional ordering a poll of anything other than likely voters. The other types are just not going to be as accurate or useful for a campaign. They also take their calling lists from lists of registered voters. In fact, there is a list firm in Guilford County that often supplies those for polling.
I don’t trust the polls as many on the blogs are keeping that under their hat and don’t forget many of these polls are not evenly distributed. It is getting harder and harder to get a true sampling of the American electorate into today’s political climate.
/agree, I think those numbers are (1) intentionally portraying a worse picture than actual reality (2) very telling to not stick to “likely voters”, which is a much more interesting and valid stat, (3) it will assuredly change, and tighten up as we get closer to November, (4) the media loves this and is almost openly pushing their pro-Hillary narrative (5) seriously… you can almost hear their giggling and cheers come off the page.
“I can hear it now from the GOPe — *”See? See? The Donald is dragging us ALL DOWN! If you had just listened to us and picked Marco, or JEB! or Kasich, we’d be in MUCH better shape!”*”
Honestly, that’s probably true. Hillary is such an objectively bad candidate even a barely competent opponent “should” be able to beat her handily. But then, it was a point made repeatedly during the primaries… for HC, Trump was probably the best option she could hope for. He’s been a gift to her so far.
We “know” the media is going to circle the wagons and try to put their thumb on the scale for the left… but do we really have to keep making it so easy for them? Trump can’t seem to help himself.. giving them as much political ammo as he can. A lot of his current poll numbers are due to unnecessary, self-inflicted wounds, either direct damage or just missed opportunity. He makes it more and more difficult for anyone to reasonably end up in his corner, whether that’s a #NeverTrump person or some independent/moderate person who’s open to it, but is only just now starting to even pay attention to politics…
And all that undercuts the credibility of anyone else trying to make a anti-statism argument. It’s difficult to do that on one hand, while having had to defend either Trump or the GOPe on the other. *shrug* That’s part of the long-term danger of Trump.
“We took to the streets in 2009 — and stormed the polls in 2010 — seeking relief from statism. ”
And sadly, voters ended up giving us two candidates that are OK with statism. Trump doesnt seem so much opposed to statism as he’s convinced the leviathan is only mismanaged. He’s not Hillary, of course, but the GOP isnt really giving us much in the way of alternatives.
“People are scared about the future of the state and the country. ”
I agree… and they kinda should be. Sadly, as bad as the Democrats have been, the GOPe has been complicit, and their alternatives are disappointing. It may get worse before voters decide to make it better, and even that isnt too certain.
But ya know… it’s a nice day out there, I’m gonna go enjoy it some 🙂
I’ve always believed Trump was in this race at the Clinton’s behest. As for the down ballot state races, failure to advance a conservative agenda in Raleigh is more likely than Trump to have an impact.
Yeah… it’s one of those conspiracy theories that oddly gets more and more plausible the more he shoots himself in the foot.
But I think I’ve seen enough of him now to have an idea of just how huge (and fragile) his ego is, how his mindset is so completely this 3rd-grade playground swagger, and how pretty much the only tool in his toolbelt is “I’ll just double-down and punch opponents again harder”… I dont know that he has much else in him…Maybe he’s just really this bad at it. *shrug*
It is looking more and more that way.
First hint was the long meeting with Slick Willy a year or so ago.
The second issue is how badly he has tanked since the convention, it seems like he has been actively trying to do poorly. Now, a part of this is what was going to happen anyway….the media turning on him now that he is against their candidate….but he seems to be actively trying to say things that he knows will harm his campaign.
Maybe sending a spokesperson onto national news saying that Obama – not Bush – invaded Afghanistan will help.
Trump and his team really think you people are stupid, doesn’t he?
Indeed… 🙂 and his “I surround myself with the best people” argument rings a bit hollow too.
Of course, when it comes to Trump and his positions regarding our foreign wars… well, I imagine it’s gotta be head-spinning, trying to figure out what you’re supposed to be arguing at any given time.
Paul Manafort and Roger Stone are certainly not among the ”best people”. They are longtime establishment fixers and Manafort is an outright thug. One more thing I have to overlook when I hold my nose for Trump on election day.
Forget the polls, the main stream media has publicly stated that it is their job to protect us from the mistake of electing TheDonald. Nothing they say can be trusted. You have for the first time a choice good vs evil, a person who was/is a successful builder in the toughest market vs a liar, controlled by special interest/big money who has built nothing, will be recorded in history as the woman who destroyed Europe. In the past it was very hard to find the difference between a R an a D. If you still want someone who is PC and will turn the other check write Bush name in (Sr Jr no difference). Great summary, we capture the house after 40 yrs when the leadership stated what they
were for.
If you have a chance, go to Cary Towne Center and see your future if open borders, send in the Syrians Hillary is elected. Burkas galore – from that religion of peace, love and open mindedness. Or, read about the refugee atrocities in Falls Cities, which the pathetic media has not reported on. Snap out of your stupor, folks. Trump 2016.
Hillary wants to bring in a million Muslim migrants, about the same number who are now plaguing Germany with terrorism, violence, sexual assaults, and criminality. We simply have to stop Hillary.
I’ve been a Trump fan ever since he announced his candidacy. Never trusted Ted despite what many “Christian” friends thought. A libertarian said, There was something “sleazy” about the man, and we know how he ended up. He shot himself in the foot at the Convention. He showed his true colors in failing to honor in His pledge to support the victor.
Folks, for the first time in decades, we have a real choice other than the status quo: to elect a DESTROYER in Hillary of nations (Europe and the Midfle East along with Obama); or we can elect a PROVEN BUILDER in Trump!
It’s that simple.
Trump has honored his pledge to support only proven conservative judges with a track record. He produced a list of great judges and keeps reminding us that the direction of the Supreme Court is at stake!
Phyllis Schafly is one of THE best researchers of who is or isn’t a real conservative. She came out against her family and many others to support the Donald at the very beginning! Her instincts are greater than all the phoniy “experts” of the tv pundits and the dinner circuit!
We’ve been appalled at those in NC who say they are Conservative, only to be some of the worst turncoats imaginable. (Burr). We support Donald Trump to clean house of those who’ve turned our government into their private piggy banks, and that includes the Bushes (too cozy with the Clintons), and anyone who dares to ignore the will of THOUSANDS who show up at Trump rallies.
Burrs support of the judge who overturned our hard fought voter integrity law was unconscionable. His future as our Senator is in jeopardy except the Dems are even worse.
God help us to get this election right or the Republic is over.
Why do you have to attack Cruz in your comment? Cruz has nothing to do with this article.
That bothers me, too. Ted Cruz is a better conservative than Trump. Trump has slithered all over the political landscape over the years, but now we have absolutely no choice but to get behind him to beat the Hildebeast, and we will just have to hope that he stays with some of the good positions he is taking now. For Trump and his followers to keep attacking Cruz, just makes it more difficult for many solid conservatives to get fully behind Trump, which they need to in order to beat Hillary. Trump and his followers are the ones shooting themselves in the foot by their stupid continuing war on Cruz. What is most galling is their talk of getting behind an establishment congressman, Michael McCaul, one of the most liberal GOP members of the Texas delegation to primary Cruz. The Trump people do not need to be dividing the party the way they are. We need to elect Trump and that is not the way to do it.
It was Trump who graciously gave Ted Cruz a prime speaking slot at the GOP convention and it was Cruz who Stabbed him in the back by failing to uphold his pledge that all candidates took to support the final winner of the primaries. Even his supporters were enfuriated at his infantile selfish act!
How is it democrats, as divided as they were, could unite again to go forth as one team? You may not like Donald’s NY style, but millions do…..and with or without you, we have a champion fighter for AMERICAN values, not those of the Globalist/TPP/Saul Alinsky one worlders. Have you forgotten Heidi Cruz worked for Goldman Sachs and wrote documents supporting TPP which is hated by the workers in this country.
My husband and I are well acquainted with politics, as grassroots activists since 1985 and have watched RINOS defeat us. Too many times, We’ve seen leaders slip in lukewarm wishy washy third party candidates to defeat the people’s choices for rock solid conservative principles, or outright lie.
We’ve had it with RINOS. Cruz is part of that cabal and his poll numbers in Texas are showing he is deep trouble. Folks, please….if you remember anything, remember this. The primaries are over. The people clearly preferred Trump and all others fighting him are giving the morally bankrupt crime family another shot at the White House. Maybe it’s YOUR turn to hold your nose and vote for Trump as we held our nose and voted for Dole, McCain and Romney. After all, it IS our turn for a whole new tact to sweep established tax and spend politicians out…..who are oblivious to the pain of unemployed, underemployed Americans, some 93 million !!!! We are BROKE !!!! Only a man who has demonstrated what it is to build huge projects In politically corrupt waters of NYC and around the world, and still complete gorgeous projects, UNDER TIME and UNDER BUDGET has a shot of rescuing our drowning economy.
Do you have any idea of how much waste is going on in fed and state governments? We will ALL lose everything if we do not rally around the one man who has the guts, the instincts and the smarts to get this economy rolling again. We saw NO ONE ELSE who could do that. Sorry, but not even Tex.
Go TRUMP!!! :))).
Bonnie, good words. Time to sweep out the trash. The dems will fall in lockstep behind killery. And after witnessing the love of Trump by Omarossa and other black women recently, it’s time to put the crap rhetoric about Trump away and work to get a MUCH better option into the WH. I simply can’t fathom the destruction this country will fall into with killery in charge. All those commenting on this should grin, bear it and vote Trump, or take responsibility for putting this monster of a female in office (along with the Supreme Court). Maybe take a few rinos out in the process, cause they haven’t supported conservatives like you and I in a long time.
Trump and his campaign knew well ahead of time exactly what the speech said, that Cruz was “not” going to fully endorse Trump, and “why”.
If anyone was “stabbed in the back”, it was Ted Cruz by a petty Donald Trump, who’s ego apparently couldnt take Cruz not bowing and scraping before the Orange King.
Also:
– Trump also was open about having conditions for backing out of “the pledge”, back in the primaries and losing was a real possibility.
– Cruz’s reasons for not endorsing Trump are, imho, entirely reasonable and responsible. Such a pledge is “not” a blanket promise to endorse someone after they go after your father and wife.
– Cruz “still” tried to split the difference and go right up to the line without actually endorsing Trump, and petty Trump trounced him for it.
“You may not like Donald’s NY style, but millions do….”
His style is fine… it’s his content and lack of character that’s awful.
This mentality of Trump having honor and integrity, but Cruz doesnt… and that Trump is somehow going to clean house and oppose leftism, but Cruz is too establishment… *sigh*
This is the danger of Trumpism leading the GOP.
If someone does the math, opposes Hillary, and holds their nose to vote for Trump… cool – I get it. But I see no reason to make him out be something he’s most definitely not, and to defend him at the cost of one’s own credibility.
You are right on the money, Atnor. Cruz laid out the policy reasons why conservatives should vote for Trump and then told them to vote their conscience from the top of the ticket (Trump) to the bottom. That was actually the formulation most likely to bring the ”NeverTrump” conservatives back in the fold, a heavy push on issues and a light touch on personality. Gingrich clearly understood that, but most of the other Trumpers did not, and they went off on a tear that has hurt both Cruz and Trump. Trump’s numbers among ”very conservative” voters dropped in the polls by 8 points after his tantrum over Cruz’ speech.
We need to get everyone working together to beat Hillary. Cruz would have helped accomplish that in his speech if Trump had not gone ego crazy in reaction to it.
It is infuriating that the Trump people are pushing one of the most liberal GOP members of the Texas Congressional delegation, Michael McCaul, as a primary opponent to Cruz. If it were not for the horror of a Hillary presidency, that would have probably made me sit out the presidential race. There is absolutely no excuse for that. I will hold my nose for Trump, but without any real enthusiasm.
Interesting… didnt know that stat about Trump’s polling after the Cruz speech. Thanks. That incident really brought home for me (again) how thin-skinned and spiteful Trump is.
“It is infuriating that the Trump people are pushing one of the most liberal GOP members of the Texas Congressional delegation, Michael McCaul, as a primary opponent to Cruz. ”
– Trump “is” a pretty liberal GOP member, himself, and he’s quite comfy with the establishment crowd.
– Trump doesnt know or care about “policy” or principles. If you show the appropriate level of fealty and tell him what a good boy he is, you’re on the good list. If you dont… well, apparently there’s not much limit to how far out of his way he’ll go to try and damage you, even if it risks damaging his own presidential campaign.
“I will hold my nose for Trump, but without any real enthusiasm.”
I feel ya… It’s a tough cal, and I can’t fault anyone for wherever they come down. I think he’s done so much damage already… *shrug* whichever ugly choice voters come up with, it’s gonna be a trainwreck. Both are such corrupt, horrible people. I think I’ve decided that for me, I just can’t lend my support to either one.
If not for the judges and immigration, I might agree with you. Those are the two big things that will make me hold my nose for Trump. I don’t fully trust Trump on either, but he could not possibly be as awful as Hillary on them.
Again, this article has nothing to do with Cruz so you double down and not only attack Senator Cruz some more, you attack Heidi Cruz. You do realize Trump’s finance manager is from Goldman Sachs and Trump wants to make him Treasury Secretary. Your candidate won, congratulations now get him across the finish line. It is up to Trump, his surrogates and supporters to win.
You seem to think that continuing to attack his rivals is a winning strategy. Notice, I said rivals, not enemies. Trump and many of his supporters treat Cruz like his enemy. I am glad he is in the Senate, I would gladly trade Burr for Cruz. You should be concerned with Trump’s poll numbers not Cruz in 2018.
Trump ran a scorched earth, Saul Alinsky campaign including his attacks on Cruz’s family which is why Cruz did not endorse. You support a candidate who thinks the National Enquirer is a credible news source.
Cruz is no RINO, he is despised by the establishment. Look up the Medellin case, Cruz is no globalist.
Yes, we are broke and Trump wants to spend almost $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, twice the amount Clinton wants to spend. He loves debt and wants to continue borrowing without a serious plan to reduce it. He wants to raise the minimum wage which will kill jobs especially for our youth. Trump is for touch back amnesty. Trump has openly said he doesn’t want nor need my vote. He is running such a great campaign states like Utah, Arizona, Georgia and others are in play. Perhaps his reaching out to Bernie Sanders voters and trashing his rivals is not a great strategy but you go ahead and keep it up if it makes you feel better. Being the grassroots activist you are, I’m sure you are busy knocking on doors and winning over people to vote for your guy. My neighbors, friends and co-workers are disgusted with the choices we have for this critical election. Trump is unstable, he has no impulse control and behaves like a spoiled toddler plus he’s vindictive…quite the candidate. Trump has also said he doesn’t care about holding the Senate, he likes the idea of being a free agent. Trump would be very happy cutting deals with Chuck Schumer. I’m Never Hillary and Never Ross but Trump doesn’t automatically get my vote nor does Burr.
Well stated.
I would upvote, if that were a thing. 😉
It is time for the Democrats to take control of the government again. The GOP in North Carolina had the chance but did nothing. Clinton, Cooper and Ross will bring NC back up again so that we can take pride in North Carolina.
Vote out the GOP! Thank you.
That sounds like going out of the frying pan into the fire to me. For all that is wrong with Trump, Clinton is a whole lot worse. For all that is wrong with McCrory, our crooked Attorney General Cooper is a whole lot worse. All the choices for US Senate are downright awful.
At least with the GOP, we have a Senate majority with good sense, even if we have a liberal self-serving House leadership. Even in the House, we do have some good people. Then in the US House, we have some solid leaders like Walter Jones and Mark Meadows.
Make that STATE Senate majority. Mitch McConnell and his ilk in the US Senate are Obama enablers with no sense at all. I wish our US Senate Republicans were led by someone with the common sense of Phil Berger.
Hi Brant
Will you please begin to create the narrative that explains the demise of the NC Republican Party, for use by Patriots and media after the debacle in November.
Part of the narrative, or theme, explains how vile and incompetent the leadership has been in protecting the broader interests in liberty and civil rights, and part of the narrative explains how that leadership erased the majority that the Republicans finally gained, after 100 years of Democrat domination.