Waving the White Flag on Whatley?

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That looks like what is happening with the veteran election handicappers at UVA professor Larry Sabato’s Center for Politics:

— We are making three Senate rating changes this week, all in favor of Democrats. North Carolina moves to Leans Democratic, and Alaska and Ohio are now Toss-ups.

— This makes the Democrats’ path to the majority clearer, but we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate.

— Democrats need to win all four of our Toss-ups to get to a majority, while Republicans need just one to preserve a nominal 50-50 majority because they hold the vice presidential tiebreaker.

— Democrats also have their work cut out for them in the four Toss-ups, albeit for different reasons. In Maine and Michigan, there are questions about the quality of the Democratic candidates. In Alaska and Ohio, meanwhile, the questions are more about Democrats’ ability to overcome each state’s pronounced GOP lean. […]

We’re going backwards.  At one point, this seat was actually rated Leans Republican.  Since then, it has moved to Toss-Up and then over to Leans Democrat.

So, these folks apparently see Whatley as pretty much done:

[…] North Carolina

In North Carolina, it increasingly appears that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has the upper hand. There probably was a case, given his history in the state, for starting him out as a favorite as soon as he entered the contest nearly a year ago. However, our thinking in holding the race as a Toss-up was that North Carolina—especially in Senate races—has proven elusive for Democrats. When this seat was last up in 2020, Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham led in most public polls and appeared well-positioned for much of the campaign, only to fall about a point and a half short on Election Day, hurt both by personal scandal and also Donald Trump’s presidential victory in the state. […]

We don’t have a presidential race this year to bail out a weak nominee.  If you take a look at the polling from 2020, Cunningham did hold big leads on Tillis throughout the campaign.  But several polls gave Tillis a lead. There has yet to be a poll this cycle showing Whatley with a lead on Cooper.  (We’ve seen ONE tie, though.)

Don’t forget that Cunningham was nowhere near the caliber of candidate that Cooper is.

MORE:

[…] More broadly, Democrats have repeatedly come close in high-profile federal races in North Carolina without quite getting over the finish line.

Earlier this cycle, we noted that given Democrats’ history of falling short in closely contested North Carolina federal races, simply holding a narrow lead in the mid-40s would not necessarily be enough to flip the seat. In the past several polls however, Cooper has been around the 50% mark.

Meanwhile, we are somewhat underwhelmed with former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley’s efforts as the GOP nominee. With Trump’s standing in the state double-digits underwater in multiple polls, we wonder if Whatley has tied himself too closely to the president.

For instance, last month, Whatley expressed support for Trump’s “anti-weaponization” fund even as the idea proved beyond the pale for several of his would-be Republican colleagues in the Senate. […]

What really hurts you is when you publicly take BOTH SIDES of the “anti-weaponization” issue.

MORE:

[…] In fact, the three Republican incumbents we now list in Toss-up—Susan Collins of Maine, Jon Husted of Ohio, and Dan Sullivan of Alaska—joined with Democrats on an ultimately unsuccessful vote to block the fund.

Though Whatley currently polls around 40%, we expect the race to tighten as Election Day draws nearer. Whatley is simply less familiar to voters, so it’s easy to see conservatives “coming home” to some degree. […]

There’s that name ID issue we’ve told you about raising its head.

And WHAT pray tell is there to “come home” to?  The Whatley campaign is doing ZERO to rally the conservative base. ZERO.

MORE:

[…] And while Cooper, one of the strongest Democratic fundraisers on the Senate map, has handily outraised Whatley on a candidate-to-candidate basis, it is possible that conservative outside groups could help close the gap. As noted above, this may end up as a razor-thin race by Election Day. But it also doesn’t have to become that, and Cooper may just ride out the race and win by a clearer margin.

While we’re on the subject of North Carolina elections, Sabato’s team is also down-grading the race for congressional district 11 (Edwards vs. Ager) from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.