NY Times / Siena Poll: TRUMP TIED, Burr DOWN, McCrory DOWN

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That’s the latest round of numbers on our state’s BIG THREE for November: poll-results4

  • President:   Trump and Clinton are tied at 41-41.  Trump leads 53-28 among white voters.  Clinton has black voters by 86-3.
  • Senator:  Deborah Ross leads Richard Burr 46-42.  
  • Governor: Roy  Cooper leads Pat McCrory 50-42. 

Of course The Times carries forward the latest liberal spin that the smartest, best educated folks with the most degrees are going Democrat.  In most cases, the people with the most degrees tend to be employees of colleges and universities and government agencies.

So, no surprise there. I’m obviously an outlier.

(But there are more of US than there are of them.  I hope.) 

Here’s some info on the poll’s methodology:

The New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll of 782 likely voters in North Carolina was conducted from Sept. 16 to 19.

The sample was selected from an L2 voter file stratified by age, race and a modeled turnout score. Voter records from each strata were selected in inverse proportion to the anticipated response rate for each strata, based on a June-July test.

Over all, 44 percent of interviews were completed on cellphones. Interviewers asked for the person listed on the voter file; no interviews were attempted with other individuals available at the number.

The sample was balanced to match the demographic and political characteristics of active registered voters in the L2 voter file by age, race, gender, party registration, region and a modeled turnout score. The voter file data on respondents, not the self-reported information provided by respondents, was used for weighting.

Likely voters were determined by averaging a self-reported likely-voter screen and a modeled turnout score.

• Self-reported likely voters were those who indicated that they were “almost certain” or “very likely” to vote, or rated their chance of voting as a “9” or “10” on a scale from 1 to 10.

• The turnout score was based on a model of turnout in the 2012 presidential election. The probabilties were applied to 2016.

The probability that a registered voter would turn out was based on the average of whether they were a self-reported voter and their modeled turnout score.