#NCSEN: PPP says Hagan opening up lead on Tillis while Libertarian Haugh polls at 11%

th1Public Policy Polling is out with some new numbers on the highly-watched US Senate race here in good ol’ NC.  The survey of 1,076 registered North Carolina voters between June 12 and June 15 says 39 percent support incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan, 34 percent back the Republican Thom Tillis, and 11 percent back Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh.  Twenty percent of respondents were reached via the Internet. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.  

PPP asked Haugh voters who they would back if their only choices were Hagan or Tillis.  Haugh supporters favored Hagan over Tillis by a 42-38 margin.

According to PPP, Hagan fares best in area codes 252 and 919.  Tillis fares best in area codes 828 and 336.  Haugh is strongest in area code 828.  (Tillis leads Hagan 38-35 in area code 704.) Tillis appears to have his highest favorable ratings in area codes 252, 704, and 919.  His highest unfavorable ratings are, surprisingly, in the two area codes where people know him best: 919 and 704.  

Hagan’s favorability ratings are best in area codes 919 and 336 and with over-the-Internet respondents.   Her disapproval ratings are the lowest in area code 919 and over the Internet.  Her disapproval ratings are between 50 and 57 percent in every other area code. 

I know the usual arguments about PPP and their biases and their methodology.  But let’s scoot over to RealClearPolitics and look at other polling on the race.   A May 7-8 survey by GOP-leaning Rasmussen Reports had Tillis up over Hagan 45-44.   A May 20-22 survey by Civitas had Tillis up 46-41 over Hagan.  A June 6 to June 8 survey by Magellan Strategies — which polls for the Koch Brothers, among others — had Hagan up 47-46. And then we have this PPP survey.

PPP shows Hagan with a 42-46-12 favorable /unfavorable/unsure rating.  They show Tillis at 23-45-32.  Both of them appear to be equally unpopular, but more people seem to have ancapitol opinion of Hagan than they do of Tillis.  

PPP — which typically polls for leftists — suggests that Tillis is being hurt by the legislature being in session.  There could be SOME of that at work here. But most people out there can’t even tell you WHO their legislator is, much less what the legislature is working on.  

It DOES appear that Hagan has improved as Tillis has scaled back his TV airtime.  Hagan is on the air right now with a pretty good ad featuring a retired Marine talking about his deceased little girl and Kay Hagan’s fight to keep other little girls from dying like his did.  

It will be interesting to see what happens once the GOP standard-bearer ramps up his TV ad assault for the general election. 

5 thoughts on “#NCSEN: PPP says Hagan opening up lead on Tillis while Libertarian Haugh polls at 11%

  1. Yeah!! There is no difference in the two of them. Might as well let Hagan keep the seat. News media would be tickled pink with either of them. They know Hagan will carry their left wing water, they know Tillis will carry their left wing water. Conservatives lose either way. The special interests win either way. The people lose either way.

    Well of course his unfavorable ratings are in the areas that are most familiar with him. Once they get to know him, they’re turned off immediately. He wins by hiding and bank rolling an ad campaign. The schmuck.

  2. It will be interesting to see if Haugh can get 11% of the vote. But I did not think Tillis would win the Republican without a runoff so anything is possible.

    1. I suspect many of those 11% are disgruntled conservative Republican voters not happy with the GOP nominee, but if they take a look at Haugh’s open border position on amnesty for illegal aliens, they will run, not walk, away from him. Tillis dodged a bullet when the Libertarians did not nominate D’Annunzio, who whose’s issues positions would have been much more palatable to conservative voters.

  3. Kay Hagan is marginally more conservative on immigration.

    She voted for the gang of amnesty bill but that bill is dead anyway. Tillis supported it in his heart, until the bill became a dead issue by the end of 2013. When it mattered in 2010 she voted against the Dream Act. They only got 55 votes. They needed 60. Hagan, Pryor, Baucus, Tester and Nelson(Nebraska) voted no.

    In December 2012 Tillis promised “to send a message to Washington” on immigration. Everyone knows that means the likes of McCain and Schumer weakening immigration laws.

    Hagan is just a puppet but Tillis was the speaker and he made the movement to weaken E-Verify.

    Eric Cantor had his finger on the trigger of amnesty. Lindsey Graham is just this angry RINO outlier who failed to get Bush and Obama an amnesty bill.

    Tillis is obviously better on other issues.

    1. I do indeed wish he were better on other issues, since he is now our nominee. But Tillis is downright awful on green energy boondoggles, which he supports, and was all over the landscape on Obamacare. His teaming up with Gay Marriage leaders, who raised him a bunch of money in the primary is also a concern.

      To have a chance of winning, Tillis needs to convince conservative voters that he can be trusted on the issues, and that is a heavy lift for him, given his record and his allies.

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