#NCSEN: Most-electable? THE POLLS keep saying NO.

ttshrugWe’ve been told by Pat McCrory, Karl Rove, National Right to Life, and countless members of the drive-by media that Thom Tillis is the most-electable candidate to take on Kay Hagan in November.  The problem? THE POLLS.

The RealClearPolitics poll averages show Hagan with an average lead of 0.2 percent over Tillis in a general election matchup. According to RCP, Tillis and fellow Republican Heather Grant perform the worst against Hagan.  The latest poll from the Democrat firm Public Policy Polling adds to the mounting pile of evidence discrediting the premise of Thom Tillis’ inevitability.

The poll, released on April 8, ranks the GOP field like this: Tillis 18%, Brannon 15%, Harris 11%, Heather Grant 7%, Ted Alexander 6%, Alex Bradshaw 5%,  Jim Snyder 2%, and Edward Kryn 1%. UNDECIDED still leads the field with 34 percent.

PPP’s poll released at the first of March had Brannon and Tillis tied at 14 percent.  The poll released in early February had Tillis at 20 percent and Brannon at 13 percent.

We’re seeing an interesting pattern over the last three months.  Tillis appears to be sputtering  and stalling — despite dumping a ton of money into television advertising.  Brannon appears to be gaining slowly.  The Heather Grant phenomenon appears to be petering out — to the advantage of the Mark Harris campaign, which has made some gains.

Some of the most interesting news from this most current PPP poll involves the general election head-to-head matchup between Hagan and each member of the GOP field.  Jim Snyder ties Hagan.  Tillis loses to Hagan by TWO.  EVERY OTHER REPUBLICANeven Alex Bradshaw — beats Hagan in the general election.

Hagan’s approval / disapproval rating stands at 41/48.  Tillis has a 20/39 FAV-UNFAV rating.  Sixty percent of respondents — after months of TV advertising — said they know enough of Thom Tillis to form an opinion of him.  That’s compared to 31 percent for Brannon and 30 percent for Harris.  Yet, those two are hanging close to Tillis.

We’ve got some televised debates for the GOP candidates coming up on April 22 and 23.  It’s pretty clear that Kay Hagan is on the ropes for November.  Republican primary voters just need to settle on a champion to finish her off.   

27 thoughts on “#NCSEN: Most-electable? THE POLLS keep saying NO.

  1. I wouldn’t vote for Tillis for garbage collecter…Furthermore if Rove, prebis, etc continue to support him I hope he never even gets to run. We have a voice…it is time to use it! Keep Tillis off the ballott!!!

    1. While I agree with you on your (likely choice of US Senate candidate-though I don’t know for sure since you didn’t mention it), I will respectfully disagree with you.

      I GREATLY want Mr. Brannon to be my Senate nominee (second choice Mark Harris, Ted Alexander, and down the line..Mr. Tillis being my LAST choice).

      I would vote for a dead dog over keeping Kay Hagan!

  2. Conservatives are rising up in #NC. Karl Rove & Mitch McConnell will NOT dictate to us. We will be giving Kay Hagan her pink slip and sending a true conservative to Washington DC, Dr Greg Brannon.

    1. If Brannon can overcome the jury verdict and be elected then I think he will most certainly be elected President after his first term in the Senate. It takes a powerful politician to make the voters ignore the courts.

      And if Kay Hagan cannot use the jury verdict against Brannon then Kay should never have been elected in the first place.

      If Brannon pulls this off he deserves to win!

  3. It is significant that Tillis is twice as far underwater in favorable vs. unfavorable ratings as Hagan.

  4. How could over 40% of NC “voters” have a favorable opinion of a communist like Hagan? We certainly have an ignorant populace.

    1. RJM, that’s very nearly the same percentage that voted AGAINST the Marriage amendment. So I’d say it’s typical.

  5. I read that Kay Hagan has $8.3 million cash on hand. Tillis has $1.3 million.

    If Tillis or any other Republican can do no better than that then the race is over.

    $8.3 million with more money coming in every day is a pretty formidable opponent for any Republican trying to unseat an incumbent.

    Money trumps the issues every time.

    1. Tell that line of BS to Ted Cruz. Dewhurst outspent him by a wide margin but Cruz crushed Dewhurst in the runoff. This year, Dewhurst is spending out the wahzoo to try to keep his position as Lt. Governor, but still ran second in the primary to a Tea Party candidate who spent a lot less, and will likely lose the runoff.

      Money also did not save Elizabeth Dole here in North Carolina.

      Also, Tilli$ special interest money machine is based on favors he can grant as House Speaker and that will be G-O-N-E for good in a few weeks.

      1. “Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.”

        I do not think that Brannon has quite the stature of Ted Cruz. But if Brannon is able to overcome his court case and Kay’s $8.3 million then Brannon deserves a seat in the United States Senate.

        His victory will go down as historic!

      1. How much did Ramsey outspend then Representative (now Senator) Norm Sanderson? Sixteen to one, wasn’t it? Yet Sanderson whipped Ramsey soundly in the primary and went on to win the Senate seat.

        Sanderson is a conservative grassroots Republican, and Ramsey, an ally of Tillis.

  6. Brannon needs to attack Tillis right off the bat at the first debate and not let up.Tillis cannot debate and this will rattle him.Tillis is a RINO and has no core principles.His true colors will shine and this will spell his doom as clips will make good campaign ads.

    1. Brannon doesn’t even need to attack Tillis; just stick to the Constitution and he’ll run circles around Mr. Tillis.

      1. Tilli$ likes to ”Obama” (lie) about his record, so the other candidates need to confront Tillis with his real record when he does so, and not allow TIlli$ to get away with running under false colors. Brannon does need to contrast his positions with those of Tilli$ but couched as a contrast as opposed to an attack.

  7. If we can get to a runoff, and I think we can, then Brannon or even one of the others has a good chance. I don’t see anyone winning this without a runoff.

  8. The fact that Tillis hasn’t attacked Brannon much on losing a court case makes me think Tillis may have even more skeletons in the closet.

    When was the last time a Tillis candidate actually won. I think Arlen Specter was the last guy to run in 2004. That was in the RINO heyday of the early 2000’s. PA is a pretty liberal state and Specter only got 52% or so. We saw what happened in MT and ND in 2012. There was a third party vote and people stayed home. I can’t remember a Republican winning a senate race when they ran as liberal as the democrat. It must be a decade since. Almost all of them lose and we ended up with people like Landrieu and Johnson in SD.

    If you want Obamacare and immigration “fixed”, just vote for Hagan. I can’t see where Tillis is different. Maybe on campaign finance which the Supreme Court has already decided on.

    I don’t think Brannon’s case is a problem compared to the spending of taxpayer’s money on misbehaving public servants.

  9. Tillis will never bring up the court case Brannon lost.He will leave that to Rove and outside groups to go negative and go hard.Brannon doesn’t have the money to wait and needs to go after Tillis and his “fake” conservative credentials and paint him as just another establishment insider.Brannon needs to address the court case and try and inoculate himself.Call it a travesty of justice and he will fight for justice to right a wrong against those trying to steal anothers business.Brannon will have to get in Tillis face.I think Brannon should have his supporters follow Tillis and ask questions and film his response, and when he blows his top,which he will, youtube it.He better think guerrilla warfare or he can go back to Cary and begin delivering babies.The time clock is running out and talk is cheap.

    1. I agree that Tilli$ needs to be hit hard on his counterfeit ”conservatism”, and it needs to be done soon. I suspect we will see some well heeled outside conservative groups join the fray in the runoff, but I wish they would get in now.

  10. Republican activists in the Third Congressional District are not drinking Tilli$’ koolaid. At the straw poll at today’s district convention, delegates voted as follows:
    Brannon 59%
    Tillis 24%
    Harris 11%
    Alexander 4%
    others 2%

    1. This is further evidence of what Brannon told Glenn Beck:

      “We are pulling back the veil and showing who the wizard is and they are getting exposed,” Brannon said of Tillis, whose conservatism he questioned at multiple points. “We are going to win this without a runoff. There’s no doubt in my mind. The wave is coming.”

      I would have never believed it if I had not seen it with my own eyes. The wave has started and is gaining momentum. It will shock the Republican Party establishment if Greg Brannon wins the primary with 59% of the vote. Indeed it will shock the entire country.

  11. The Third District is made up of over 20 counties, I reckon. This poll of party grassroots activists amid Tillis television ad saturation is pretty telling.

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