We’ve been told by Pat McCrory, Karl Rove, National Right to Life, and countless members of the drive-by media that Thom Tillis is the most-electable candidate to take on Kay Hagan in November. The problem? THE POLLS.
The RealClearPolitics poll averages show Hagan with an average lead of 0.2 percent over Tillis in a general election matchup. According to RCP, Tillis and fellow Republican Heather Grant perform the worst against Hagan. The latest poll from the Democrat firm Public Policy Polling adds to the mounting pile of evidence discrediting the premise of Thom Tillis’ inevitability.
The poll, released on April 8, ranks the GOP field like this: Tillis 18%, Brannon 15%, Harris 11%, Heather Grant 7%, Ted Alexander 6%, Alex Bradshaw 5%, Jim Snyder 2%, and Edward Kryn 1%. UNDECIDED still leads the field with 34 percent.
PPP’s poll released at the first of March had Brannon and Tillis tied at 14 percent. The poll released in early February had Tillis at 20 percent and Brannon at 13 percent.
We’re seeing an interesting pattern over the last three months. Tillis appears to be sputtering and stalling — despite dumping a ton of money into television advertising. Brannon appears to be gaining slowly. The Heather Grant phenomenon appears to be petering out — to the advantage of the Mark Harris campaign, which has made some gains.
Some of the most interesting news from this most current PPP poll involves the general election head-to-head matchup between Hagan and each member of the GOP field. Jim Snyder ties Hagan. Tillis loses to Hagan by TWO. EVERY OTHER REPUBLICAN — even Alex Bradshaw — beats Hagan in the general election.
Hagan’s approval / disapproval rating stands at 41/48. Tillis has a 20/39 FAV-UNFAV rating. Sixty percent of respondents — after months of TV advertising — said they know enough of Thom Tillis to form an opinion of him. That’s compared to 31 percent for Brannon and 30 percent for Harris. Yet, those two are hanging close to Tillis.
We’ve got some televised debates for the GOP candidates coming up on April 22 and 23. It’s pretty clear that Kay Hagan is on the ropes for November. Republican primary voters just need to settle on a champion to finish her off.