#ncsen: More on Civitas poll

kaytomHere are the cross-tabs.     The data does show a 41-40 Hagan lead.  But if you factor in those leaning Tillis (1%) and those leaning Hagan (5%), you actually have a 46-41 race. (If leaners keep leaning in their respective directions.) 

When asked about a two person race — respondents went for Hagan over Tillis by 50-43. (That would tend to make one believe the incumbent benefits from those abandoning Sean Haugh.) 

It’s interesting to look at the people who are definite in their support of each candidate.  The definites have Hagan and Tillis pretty close with Men.  (Tillis holds a 4 point lead there.)  Hagan has a much wider lead among women who have definitely made up their mind.

Hagan leads Tillis in the Triangle, the southeast, and the northeast.  Tillis leads in Charlotte and the Piedmont.  Things are tight in western North Carolina — with Tillis showing a slight lead there.

Civitas breaks things down by age demographics.  People 18-25 are overwhelmingly going for Hagan.  Tillis leads with the 26-40 crowd AND the 41-55 crowd. The two are neck-and-neck (with Hagan leading) among the 56-65 age group. The two are also very close with those 66 and older.

Hagan has a commanding lead among singles, while Tillis leads the married demographic.

9 thoughts on “#ncsen: More on Civitas poll

  1. As Conservatives keep hammering on the threats to America from the likes of ISIS/ISIL, the incumbent Hagan will gain due to her experience at the National level of debate. She is far more conversant in National issues, or at least can seem so, than Tillis. Tillis just keeps face time with GOP celebrities like Christie of NJ.

    1. Oh yeah because Mrs. Hagan, Mr. Reid and Mr. Obama have done such a good job so far in dealing with ISIS (and it’s rise which is directly related to Mr. Obama’s foreign policy decisions).

      1. Centrists, Conservatives, and Liberals all agree that ISIS is a difficult problem. None of them, even within their respective groups (Centrists, Conservatives,& Liberals) agree on the correct response to the problem. Most, however, think that President Obama is addressing the problem appropriately at this point in time.

        1. Actually, conservatives think Obama has been completely incompetent in handling not only ISIS but also Ukraine. The fact that Obama skips over half of his daily Intell briefings may have a lot to do with his inept half-assed response in both situations.

  2. Thilli$ lost this election a long time ago. He is a flip flopping, cash vacuuming, opportunist with no loyalty to his base or constituents.

    Thilli$ is thoa$t.

  3. Polls showed Tillis was always the weakest GOP candidate in a head-to-head matchup against Hagan and his numbers have not improved any. Dems must be loving Carl Rove and the Chamber for giving them the gift of Tillis.

    1. The NCGOP had their hands all over the primary too, with Robin Hayes and a bunch of NCGOP staffers working the Harris campaign to siphon the evangelical support from Brannon.

  4. In politics, when you have an incumbent under 50% that is considered an incumbent in trouble. But you all you have to put up against them is a challenger who mindlessly refuses to use issues, who is poorly positioned on issues even if he did try to use them, and who has vulnerabilities of his own that others do not have, then he still ends up losing even against an incumbent who would otherwise be in trouble. This is what is so sad about the situation. Hagan is a socialist Obamacrat, and we have lots of solid issues we should be using. If we had a good GOP nominee and were running a good campaign, we ought to be beating her like a drum. Instead, we will likely lose the seat. Karl Rove, who is responsible for this, ought to be tarred and feathered, as should the idiots at NRSC who pushed Tillis so hard when they should have recognized his rather obvious flaws.

    1. I share your contempt for Rove and the NRSC, but tar and feathers are so “yesterday!”

      Perhaps we should modernize with Super Glue® and shredded NRSC begging letters.

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