#ncsen: 80% chance of Hagan victory, Tillis “uninspiring”

kaytomAnd the beat goes on. 

The Five Thirty-Eight blog, maintained by election projection whiz Nate Silver, is seeing things coming up roses for ol’ Kay: 

When FiveThirtyEight launched its Senate forecast almost a month ago, Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan had just a 46 percent chance of winning re-election in North Carolina. Her chance of winning now stands at 80 percent. On Tuesday, a National Research survey in the Tar Heel State put Hagan up 46 percent to 41 percent over Republican Thom Tillis — the 10th consecutive non-campaign sponsored survey to give her a lead.

But North Carolina is the exception. While some political observers have gleaned signs of Republican momentum in the overall Senate picture, the truth is little has changed since our first Senate forecast.

We currently peg the chance of a GOP takeover at 58 percent. Republicans have bounced around between a 53 percent and a 65 percent chance of winning back control.[…]sock puppet

Democrats started to make a move around Sept. 10, when polling showed Hagan building support. You can also see a separate mini-spike for Democrats about a week later, when the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that Democrat Chad Taylor, who had dropped out of the Senate race there, could take his name off the ballot. That decision left a two-way race between Republican Sen. Pat Roberts and independent Greg Orman. That helped Orman, who is a 58 percent favorite. Indeed, Kansas is the only state besides North Carolina in which the Republican’s chance of winning has changed by more than 15 percent.

In the past few weeks, Republicans have gained back some of the ground they lost with the Hagan surge and the Taylor news.[…]

Oh.  And from US News & World Report —  It gets, um, *better*:

[…] There’s no Senate race in the country causing more trepidation among Republicans than North Carolina, thom sighwhere state House Speaker Thom Tillis is jeopardizing a GOP opportunity to upend first-term Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C. The repeated gripe against Tillis: He’s running an uninspiring campaign with dull, lifeless television ads that aren’t cutting through. “It’s too much of a run-of-the-mill Republican campaign that sounds like the candidate’s an accountant, instead of appealing to hearts and emotions,” says Gary Bauer, president of the conservative nonprofit, American Values. Bauer says he’s hearing a “tremendous amount of complaints” about Tillis’ “lack of edge” in confronting Hagan. It probably explains why Tillis’ latest 30-second spot screams “Danger” lettering on the screen, faulting Hagan for failing to recognize the emerging threat of the Islamic State group. But the challenger is running out of time to reverse the tide. The last eight public polls have all shown Hagan with a small, but consistent single-digit lead. […]