#NCSEN: Lil’ Jordan’s Todd Akin analogy might be hitting a little too close to home
Lil’ Jordan, US Senate candidate Thom Tillis’ diminutive sidekick, took a predictable route in defending his boss
from the latest round of Democrat ads:
[…] Tillis’ campaign issued a response that avoided discussing the substance of the ad, instead attacking Democrats and trying to use the attack to raise campaign money. “Harry Reid and far-left liberals hit the panic button yesterday,” said spokesman Jordan Shaw in a statement. “They have given up on propping up Kay Hagan, and they know their only chance at victory is meddling in the Republican primary. It won’t work.”
It’s inevitable that critics would use the embarrassing episode to attack Tillis, but the timing is interesting. It would appear to help Republicans Greg Brannon and Mark Harris, who trail Tillis in polling and fundraising.
In an email to supporters, Shaw called it “the McCaskill Plan,” a reference to Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill. In 2012, some conservatives accused the McCaskill campaign of boosting Todd Akin in the GOP primary, knowing he had liabilities for the November election. “Harry Reid and Kay Hagan are now meddling in the Republican Primary. They want to pick the Republican nominee. And the candidate they do NOT want to face is Thom Tillis,” he wrote.
The little guy was all bent out of shape about the latest TV ad, from a SuperPac controlled by Harry Reid, that rehashes a sex-and-lobbyists scandal that took down Tillis’ chief of staff and another employee. Both left Tillis’ staff, but got big Tillis-approved severance packages on the way out the door.
It’s good to reflect on Todd Akin and the 2012 Missouri Senate race when talking about the 2014 action in North Carolina. It is a very relevant analogy — but not one that Lil’ Jordan and his boss might like.
Our buddy Pete Kaliner raised an interesting point: Until Akin shoved his foot in his mouth, he was Karl Rove’s favored candidate in Missouri. Just like Thom IS here in 2014.
Rove turned on Akin late in the election, and even tried to pin the whole mess on Jim DeMint and The Tea Party. Demint’s PAC smacked Rove down pretty hard in response.
Lil’ Jordan suggests that the Democrats are running ads against Tillis because they would rather run against ANYONE but him. Just like they did with Todd Akin in Missouri in 2012. Actually, in Missouri, the Democrats purposely ran ads during the primary making Akin out to be a scary ultra-conservative — trying to steer primary voters toward him and away from another more viable candidate in the three way race. There is no comparison between those 2012 ads and the 2014 ads talking about Tillis’ chief of staff and roommate running around with a lobbyist.
Looking at the entire 2014 primary field in North Carolina, Tillis presents the juiciest target for Democrat opposition researchers seeking to divert attention from Kay Hagan’s antics. They may be guilty of meddling in the GOP primary — trying to stir up more chaos — but this latest move does nothing to promote Tillis in the eyes of the conservative voters who are most likely to turn out on May 6.
Folks, like it or not, Thom Tillis is our Todd Akin.
This is clearly not the Akin strategy. In that strategy, the Democrats attack a Republican they want to run against in a way that makes Republican voters more likely to vote for the candidate they are attacking. These ads do not make anyone (except maybe sex offenders and philanderers) want to vote for Tillis.
I think this has more to do with draining the pocketbook of the candidate with the most money. The polls have always shown Tillis to be the weakest general election candidate against Hagan.
The meddling in our primary that grassroots voters should be concerned about is all the meddling from Washington, DC and that includes the meddling by Karl Rove and the NRSC.
If they wanted Tillis to lose the primary they would attack his immigration bill. Instead this looks like a general election ad.
Yes, and it indicates that they believe Tillis is Mr. Inevitable so they may as well start tearing him down now.
They could also attack Tilli$’ New York fundraiser for Gay Marriage, if they wanted to knock him off in the primary. I am sure they remember all the pain that the ads on the New York Committee for Jim Hunt caused in the Helms / Hunt race.
I believe that Tillis is playing a rope-a-dope strategy much like Ali employed against George Foreman in the “Rumble in the Jungle.”
Tillis is waiting for some candidate to create some momentum for their campaign against him but so far it has been rather droll.
The preacher does not seem to be igniting the faithful and I have not heard much talk against the gays.
Brannon said on the Glenn Beck show: “We are pulling back the veil and showing who the wizard is and they are getting exposed,” Brannon said of Tillis, whose conservatism he questioned at multiple points. “We are going to win this without a runoff. There’s no doubt in my mind. The wave is coming.” Now I do not know about you but I have yet to see the wave. Everything seems quiet and the Bogue Sound has been like glass. If their is a wave coming that will win the primary outright for Brannon it needs to get rollin’ this way. If the wave does not get here soon it may “advance tyranny.”
I don’t think Thom is going to come out of the castle unless his opponents can gain some traction. The sex scandal is good stuff but so far it does not seem to have created much press. Now if the staffers and lobbyists had been having some of that gay sex, now that would get some feathers flyin’.
Brannon and the preacher need to unleash the dogs of hell onto Tillis before it is too late. This ain’t Rove’s first rodeo. They need to roll out the big guns and hit the airways before it is too late. The wave must be seen rolling in for it to have the full effect. If the wave breaks too far out then Tillis can ride over the wave with ease.
The pundits say Tillis cannot win without a runoff. The only candidate saying that he can win without a runoff is Brannon.
Will Brannon win without a runoff as he claims?
Will the wave wash Tillis into Tennessee?
Will the wave wash away the pollen?
The jury is still out. At least on that one.
Rove has lost 10 of the 12 Senate races he has been in. I suspect he is well on his way to losing this one, as he has a candidate who is poison to any voter who cares about issues and principles, which is a lot of GOP primary voters, and especially runoff voters. Tilli$ is nothing but a rent boy for the $pecial interest$, and would not know a political principle if one jumped up and bit him.
Tilli$ is the dope that is getting roped, as he continues to have very unimpressive poll numbers. His numbers are much worse than big spending establishment candidate David Dewhurst was against Ted Cruz at this point. Tilli$, like Dewhurst, is dead meat in the runoff.
Roll out the the “big guns.”They have no money therefore no ammo.No ammo because their supporters are apparently all talk and no dough.So they must revert to guerilla warfare,so as political novices with green as gourds political teams is not going to happen,or an act of God.A miracle.I notice Brannon is calling for his supporters to call everyone to vote for him.This is a great tactic if you ORGANIZE the effort in house early with callers and get the primary voting roles from each county and call and call and follow up to make sure they vote and have a ride or absentee ballot.But that takes organization and work.And only the strong survive.
Ok, I think Team Brannon is making a HUGE mistake attacking Karl Rove. IF the Brannon Team even Remotely thinks that they are going to win this primary then they are going to need all hands on deck to beat Kay Hagan. All hands includes Karl Rove’s PAC. Now if they Think or know that they have no chance then it doesn’t matter.
I blows my mind that his team could be so novice on this one. YOU don’t attack the hands that will help you WIN.
Gosh if they actually understand the make up of the REPUBLICAN typical NC Primary voter they wouldn’t be taking the tact that they are taking.
Just my two cents.
Your posture seems to be more of a RINO than a RINO hunter, or maybe you hunt them to kiss up to them?
Rove is an outside meddler who should not be sticking his stinking nose into our primary. However, his establishment types only care if a candidate has an R by their name when it comes to the general election.
We need a state GOP chairman who has the guts to stand up and tell the meddlers from DC like NRSC and Rove to stay the heck out of our primary. Who our Senate nominee will be is for North Carolinians to determine, not DC party bosses.
Should Beck and the tea parties stay out of the primaries as well?
I caution you that you need to allow every group a voice or NONE.
you do realize that the Primary is decided by Primary REPUBLICAN voters right. Money just buys you a way to get you message to the potential voters. Money only flows to candidates that sell the message that the donors what to hear. Primary voters are different than general Election voters. TWO totally different bases….
As for the NCGOP. HECK no I hope 6,000,000 is spent in Media this next 4 weeks…….. If I were the NCGOP I would beg for that $$$$$ to be spent
$$$$ spent in Media = Larger turnout in the primary. Larger turn out in the primary means we can get Rep on Rep in the general election in Many Judge races. Yes NC Senate is important by NC judges are more important.
And the Polls that I have seen tells me my candidate for NC senate is not going to win. I feel we will have NO runoff either.
Another way to get the message out to voters is boots on the ground from party activists, and many of them are simply not buying the Tillis snake oil from the party bosses in DC. We saw in many of the larger county GOP conventions where Brannon was on a roll winning straw polls of county delegates and alternates. In Tillis’ home county, the party leadership even had to cancel the straw poll to protect Tillis from embarassment.
Now we are seeing straw polls in the more rural districts also swinging to Brannon. For example:
Third District:
Brannon 59%
Tillis 24%
other 17%
First District:
Brannon 53%
Alexander 17%
Harris 16%
Tillis 14%
These are the activists who work in the trenches to get votes for GOP candidates, and it is clear who they will be working for in the primary and runoff.
Brannon told Glenn Beck that he would win the primary without a runoff.
These numbers prove that Brannon knows what he is talking about.
Avoiding a runoff is good for the Republican Party and it will give Brannon more time to spend on defeating Kay Hagan.
And at the end of the day Kay Hagan has $8.3 million to fight the financially strapped Republicans. Kay Hagan will be returned to the Senate.
The difference between Hagan and Tilli$ is negligible. Tilli$ is just Hagan without the skirt. The only way we can get change in Washington is with one of the other GOP candidates.
What Mr. Jordan, and the rest of Thom Tillis’ staff do not know, along with the Democrats is that Greg Brannon, Mark Harris (both the most likely) to beat Tillis are NOTHING like Todd Aiken nor Richard Mourdock (and I was in Indiana for that one). I did like Mr. Mourdock, but yes he did have foot-in-mouth disease unlike our candidates.
-JJ
I hope at least one of the candidates will run some negative ads about Brannon and his investment advice. It is just too good to pass up. A marketing firm of negligible talent should be able to make an exciting campaign ad out of the jury decision. I think it should be the highlight of an otherwise boring campaign.
Why would a front runner run negative? and why would a lower placed candidate attack the second place candidate. We will not see any Negative on Dr. Brannon. That makes ZERO sense. UNLESS Tillis polls were showing something like he is headed to a Run-off. And from what I have heard from many sources many of the polls that are run by private entities show no runoff when the undecided have to make a choice. I’m sure that is why the NRA endorsed Tillis over Harris.
The NRA is run by establishment squishes, which is why groups like the Gun Owners of America, which was founded by former NRA directors upset with NRA endorsement policies, were founded. For many election cycles, NRA has routinely endorsed squishy incumbents over very solidly pro-gun challengers even in close races. NRA had long had an incumbent fetish. Now they seem to have an establishment fetish even in open seat races. Only low information gun owners pay attention to NRA endorsements any more.
A good example of NRA endorsements comes from a Mecklenburg County Commission race some years ago. It was a toss up open seat race. The GOP nominee was Joel Carter, an avid hunter, gun owner, and NRA life member. The Democrat, however, had a relative in the legislature who was friendly with the NRA lobbyist there. That legislator asked the NRA lobbyist to arrange to endorse her, apparently without even checking her position on guns. NRA mailed out its orange postcards endorsing that Democrat commission candidate. Shortly after the postcards arrived to voters, the Democrat was asked about guns at a candidate forum (you know, those things Tilli$ likes to duck) and she responded that she was afraid of guns and did not allow them in her house. That was the NRA endorsed candidate!.
What is sobering about how much the NRA wimps out on endorsements is to go back to the Cook Political Report for, say 2010, and look at the races Cook analyzed as toss ups and then see how often the NRA endorsed the Democrat in those toss up races. In all of those races, the Republican was the more dependable pro-gun vote in Congress, but the NRA wimped out and supported the Democrat in way too many of them, and some of those were even in open seat races. That also happened with the Senate. In West Virginia, a solidly pro-gun Republican faced a leaning pro-gun Democrat in a close Senate open seat race, and the NRA endorsement of the Democrat was credited by observers as pivotal it putting that seat in the Democrat column. When word got out that the NRA leadership intended to endorse Harry Reid, only massive pressure from conservatives and grassroots gun owners stopped that endorsement, but in a snit, the NRA still refused to endorse the solidly pro-gun Republican challenger.
NRA has a very long history of bad endorsements at all levels and should never be trusted by gun owners. Gun Owners of America, or within our state, Grassroots North Carolina, are much more reliable sources on 2nd Amendment issues.
I dropped my own NRA membership many years ago due to their awful endorsements record, and now put my 2nd Amendment energies into GOA.