#ncsen: Fox News says Hagan 43, Tillis 42
In this survey, Hagan has 86 percent of Democrats, while Tillis has 84 percent of Republicans. 
Hagan leads 55-31 among voters who said they have already voted.
Here is a really interesting piece of analysis:
[…]By 47-39 percent, women back Hagan. In 2008, when Hagan won the seat, she received 55 percent of the vote among women (Fox News exit poll). By 46-39 percent, men go for Tillis.
Eighty-six percent of Democrats back Hagan, while 84 percent of Republicans support Tillis. In a tight race, those couple of points matters.
Independents split 36-36 percent. In September they backed Tillis by 12 points.
White voters back Tillis by 51-34 percent. Black voters support Hagan by 84-3 percent.
[…] If you think about the three Southern states in which Republicans are trying to knock off incumbent Democrats — Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina — Sen. Hagan is almost certainly the toughest ‘out’ for the GOP,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who jointly conducts the Fox News poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.
More voters think Hagan agrees with Obama too often (48 percent) than think Tillis is too conservative on the issues (35 percent). In fact, they are more than twice as likely to say Tillis is not conservative enough (13 percent) than that Hagan doesn’t agree with Obama often enough (5 percent). […]
Obama’s approval-disapproval was at 42-54 in this survey. Ninety-two percent of Tillis supporters in the survey say they will DEFINITELY vote for their man. Eighty-eight percent of Hagan supporters are standing by their woman DEFINITELY.
Again, early voting ends TOMORROW (Saturday). Election Day is Tuesday.
The real stats.Tillis has a 70% lead among white men and a 30% lead among white women regardless of party.What does that tell you about who the dems need to get out to vote.Now you understand why there are so many negative ads aimed at portraying republicans as racist.As I recall it was democrats standing in the school house doors stopping black children from registering in the 50’s and 60’s.
If the election is close and there is a recount then I expect the Rev Barber to be the rallying point for the recount.
So far nothing said here shakes my earlier analysis. Sounds like the support for Hagan is a bit weaker than I assumed, but she can afford soft support as long as D turnout is strong, and women outvote men.