In this survey, Hagan has 86 percent of Democrats, while Tillis has 84 percent of Republicans. Hagan leads 55-31 among voters who said they have already voted.
Here is a really interesting piece of analysis:
[…]By 47-39 percent, women back Hagan. In 2008, when Hagan won the seat, she received 55 percent of the vote among women (Fox News exit poll). By 46-39 percent, men go for Tillis.
Eighty-six percent of Democrats back Hagan, while 84 percent of Republicans support Tillis. In a tight race, those couple of points matters.
Independents split 36-36 percent. In September they backed Tillis by 12 points.
White voters back Tillis by 51-34 percent. Black voters support Hagan by 84-3 percent.
[…] If you think about the three Southern states in which Republicans are trying to knock off incumbent Democrats — Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina — Sen. Hagan is almost certainly the toughest ‘out’ for the GOP,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who jointly conducts the Fox News poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.
More voters think Hagan agrees with Obama too often (48 percent) than think Tillis is too conservative on the issues (35 percent). In fact, they are more than twice as likely to say Tillis is not conservative enough (13 percent) than that Hagan doesn’t agree with Obama often enough (5 percent). […]
Obama’s approval-disapproval was at 42-54 in this survey. Ninety-two percent of Tillis supporters in the survey say they will DEFINITELY vote for their man. Eighty-eight percent of Hagan supporters are standing by their woman DEFINITELY.
Again, early voting ends TOMORROW (Saturday). Election Day is Tuesday.