#ncsen: CNN says Hagan 48, Tillis 46, Haugh 4

sock puppetThis survey was conducted Oct. 27-30 among 559 likely voters.  It has a +-4 percent margin of error.  Here’s some analysis:

[…] Hampering Tillis is an underwater favorability rating. Just 43% of those surveyed said they have a favorable view of him, compared to 50% who view him unfavorably. That’s a dramatic shift since a September CNN/ORC International poll that put his favorability rating at 47%, with just a 40% viewing him unfavorably.

“Hagan seems to have done a good job of defining her lesser-known challenger in an unflattering light,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

“The jump in Tillis’ unfavorables is highest among women (a 12-point increase), lower-income voters (12 points), and particularly in the suburbs (16 points),” Holland said.

Hagan, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by 49%, while 48% say they view her unfavorably. She could be dragged down, though, by President Barack Obama’s unpopularity. Just 42% said they approve of Obama’s job performance. […] 

In 2008, CNN was the only media outlet to NAIL the North Carolina US Senate race’s final margin exactly.

This poll comes on the day that The Washington Examiner reports Tillis strategists are now admitting their internal polls have never showed Tillis leading Hagan.  Theam Tillis admitted on the record that their polling has shown their man down 2-3 points consistently until recently. thom sigh

CNN finds Tillis leading by 14 with men while Hagan leads by 14 with women.

The CNN poll also finds a signficant geographic gap:

[…] Tillis leads among suburban and rural voters, earning 49% support in each category compared to 43% support for Hagan among suburban voters and 44% with rural voters. Hagan, though, holds a massive lead in urban areas, where she has 59% support to Tillis’ 37%. […]