#ncpol: An opportunity for Dan Forest?
If you’re like me, you’re probably a bit disheartened by our Lt. Governor. Dan Forest talked a good game on 
the 2012 campaign trail. He talked directly to frustrated Tea Partiers. He spoke like passionate conservative who was going to give voice to average folks frustrated with the ruling class in DC and Raleigh.
Yet, what we’ve seen so far is way too much of a “team player.” ‘Lt.Dan’ has been awfully quiet while the McCrory administration has stocked up on Democrats, flirted with expanding Medicaid and growing government.
Pat McCrory’s approval numbers are in the toilet. He has BIG problems with the conservative base that shows up to vote in primaries. There is quite a bit of interest out there in having a choice in the 2016 GOP primary for governor. Yet, the political players who could credibly take on the challenge are sitting on their hands.
This week, we got hit with a triple-whammy from the US Supreme Court, which has discovered rights to same sex-marriage, government-funded health insurance, and protection from “unintentional discrimination.”
In reaction to those rulings, McCrory showed us his typical, um, *profile in courage* : 
[…] “Like many North Carolinians, I still believe the definition of marriage should be determined by the states and it should be the union between one man and one woman,” McCrory said. “However, I took an oath to uphold the constitution which compels me as governor to ensure that North Carolina upholds the rule of law.” […]
(Amazingly similar to his response to the federal judge overturning the marriage amendment to the state constitution.) Where does The Constitution address marriage? Imagine if our elected leaders had taken and maintained the same attitude in reaction to the Supreme Court’s Plessy and Dred Scott decisions.
Our founding fathers established the courts as a check on the power of the executive and legislative branches. Allowing the courts to legislate is a recipe for tyranny.
Then, let’s consider what got issued from the Lt. Governor’s office:
“The power grab by a majority of the Supreme Court is a full-on assault on the founding principles of democratic process, federalism, separation of powers, the voice of the people, and judicial restraint. Under these decisions, the rights and responsibilities of the states and the people are gone, and the precedent is set that non-elected judges can play super-legislator on whatever issue they want, however they want, and whenever they want. When our elected officials step over the line, we the people can vote them out of office. When unelected judges step over the line, we are without recourse. No longer does it matter what the citizen-elected legislature says. It matters not what the citizen-elected executives say. All that matters is what a majority of nine people in a courtroom says.”
Now — which one of these guys actually sounds like a leader? Which one of these guys sounds like he’s putting our interests — as opposed to those of the ruling class — first?
We encourage more of this type of thing from Forest. THIS is what we elected him to do. We knew — as conservatives — we were going to get ZERO help from McCrory.
Pat McCrory has ZERO political capital. He clearly has no coattails at election time. The Republican legislature laughs at his vetoes as they override them. NOBODY is beating down his door asking him to come campaign for them. Right now, the (R) next to his name — and fear of the prospect of Gov. Roy Cooper — are saving him.
We’ve got an incredible leadership void at the top levels of the state. The citizenry is angry and frustrated about judges and bureaucrats overruling the will of the people. No one is looking for tail-tucking submission. People are starving for a leader who will actually fight for what they want.
The 2012 version of Dan Forest made us believe we were getting a fighter. This is a great opportunity for Dan Forest to step up and establish himself as a leader. Pat McCrory is not getting the job done. Being a good soldier / team player and standing back so Gov. Pat can try for four more years does nothing to reverse what so many see as a decline in our state and nation’s fortunes.
It’s a bad idea to put all of your hopes on one human. Focus on the ideas they are passionate about — that they fight for. It’s clear Dan Forest is in tune with average Americans / North Carolinians frustrated with what the courts, the bureaucrats, and the far-left agitators have done to our state and our country.
If Lt. Dan truly cares about the people of this state, and the future of the state, he should be prepared to offer himself up in 2016 as an alternative to Pat McCrory’s less-than-principled floundering and capitulation.
McCrory’s vicious attacks on the men and families who belong to the Sons of Confederate Veterans has been the most disgraceful thing any governor in modern history has ever done. Attacking our Southern heritage and slandering good, law-abiding citizens of his own state is beyond the pale. He is going to pay a heavy price for this. He ought to back out of a second term and let Dan Forest run.
I agree! Lt. Dan would be a solid choice. But we need to see him act. I refuse to vote for another person until they’ve walked the walk. But I can assure you that our current gov won’t get the time of day from me and mine this next election! What a RINO he turned out to be!
We also have a huge void in the US Senate, where Burr promoted the radical judge who imposed homosexual marriage on North Carolina. I agree that Forest should run for a higher office than he currently holds, but my choice would be that he primary Tricky Dick Burr.
McCrory is turning off his base big time. He has lost the southern heritage vote, which probably almost entirely voted for him the last two times. David Beasley in SC showed how that impacts a GOP governor’s reelection. They will not be fooled again. A flailing governor will be a lead anchor for the lt. governor, so unless Forest wants to go down with that ship, he needs a different plan than running for his current office.
I’ve been saying this for weeks. Forrest doesn’t have a better chance to take the governor’s mansion than next year. If he doesn’t run, we’ll lose it to a Democrat. I’ve told him that personally.
And that’s just the cold hard truth. McCrory still had his Dixiecrat supporters last week when his own Party was steadily turning sour on him these last two years. His stupid self-inflicted wound when he just had to say something about the Battle flag of the Confederacy, has changed all that. We’ll likely lose the executive mansion if McCrory doesn’t receive, and succumb to, a Primary challenge.
The “Clothes Pin Brigade” can’t save McCrory, either.
The RINOs will be caged in 2016.
We are all saying the same things. WHAT DOES LT GOV DAN SAY? That’s the unanswered question. I think he is a team player assigned to pander to the conservative base. I would love to be proven wrong. (anyone, Berger, Russo, Apodaca, Meadows could beat King Richard Burr) Times a’wasting.
Gov McCrory knows when to accept defeat. He moves to the middle to take issues away from Roy Cooper. It would do Gov McCrory no good to go down with the ship. Lt. Dan is a fine man but he will never beat Gov McCrory in a primary. I feel Gov McCrory will be reelected unless he is lured away to Washington as a Vice President or a cabinet official.
I think it is clear that Dan Forest’s political goal is to be elected governor in 2010. He has three potential paths:
1) run for reelection as Lt. Governor in 2016, and then try to move up in 2020.
2) run for governor this year in the primary, and then hope to be running for reelection in 2020.
3) run for Senate in 2016, then for governor in 2020.
The first option is the most conventional but probably holds the most risks. Since Jack Hawke got too sick to give him advice, McCrory has been getting really bad political advice, and that will hurt him in 2016. GOP lieutenant governor candidates usually run a little behind the governor candidate. If McCrory barely squeaks in, then Forest probably loses. If McCrory loses, then Forest loses. Hitching one’s wagon to the McCrory team is a highly risky business.
The second option clearly goes against the grain for Forest. In spite of McCrory not having done much to make them a team, Forest seems to consider himself a team player who would have personal qualms to go against the big man.
The third option is not as uncommon as it seems. The present GOP governor of Kansas got there that way. A US Senator is the top polling GOP candidate in this year’s governor’s race in Louisiana. A recent GOP governor of Alaska went by way of the US Senate to become governor. Indeed, the word in Florida is that one reason Rubio is willing to give up his Senate seat to run for president, rather than running for both like Rand Paul, is that if he doesn’t get the presidential nomination, his real goal is governor when the seat opens up in 2018.
Forest would get some powerful allies to take on Burr that he would not have in the primary with McCrory. Several of the national conservative groups that can help with financing and other things, particularly the Senate Conservatives Fund, have put a bulls eye on Burr. Forest does not have the ”team” problem to take on Burr that he would with McCrory. While both Burr and McCrory would be vulnerable in a primary, Burr is more so than McCrory. A Senator also has many many fewer favors like appointments he can give out.
All in all, the Senate primary is the best fit for Forest.
If the third option works, Forest could also appoint his Senate replacement, perhaps Mark Meadows.
Oops, that should be 2020 in the first line.
I have 2 questions:
1) Forest would be a great governor if you go by his campaign rhetoric or media releases. What other evidence is there that he is the kind of conservative we hope for?
2) Explain to me why Cooper would be worse for the conservative agenda that McCrory? When the GOP controls the legislature and there is a RINO elected as governor, you have that squishy 3rd voice in discussions between legislative leaders trying to get something done. When the governor is a DEM, they are able to totally ignore him. Then the leadership of just the two legislative chambers hash things out. This is especially true in budget negotiations.
1) No good answer directly to your question but as speaking as someone who is increasingly in the anybody-but-McCrory camp, I’m not too concerned about that right now.
2) The degree to whether Cooper matters depends on whether the legislative supermajority holds in both houses. Right now, there’s a question mark as to whether or not the slim margin of seats the GOP holds to keep that supermajority will be sustained. At a minimum, there is no question that the Dems are likely to pick off a seat or two in the urban counties between now and re-districting.
Here’s the point: McCrory is able to obstruct the conservative agenda because you have some Republican legislators who feel that they ought to listen to him as a matter of party respect. Also, McCrory can dangle appointments in their faces. McCrory is essentially the fly in the soup. With a Democrat governor, this is not a problem. The Republican legislature can do what’s right and pay no attention to the Democrat governor. Unless they really screw up, the GOP legislature should be able to maintain their veto-proof majorities.