#ncpol: About those Civitas polls …

*”Hey, if the flagship political organ of The Pope Empire says things are bad for Republicans, THAT IS NEWS.”*

Something like that runs through the mostly-empty heads in driveby media newsrooms (and Democrat campaign offices) across the state every time Civitas releases something that might not be considered music to the ears of Dallas and his grandpa.

The latest piece of “joyful” news the drivebys are trumpeting is a Civitas poll showing Mark Harris — vanquisher of the despicable Robert Pittenger — down by SEVEN POINTS to his pre-pubescent Democrat challenger.

I’ll have to admit — given who his top campaign advisers are — I am amazed Harris is still alive in this race.  Sometimes the skill and charm of the candidate can overcome weaknesses in the campaign team. 

I am sure the hope out there on the left flank is that Harris fans will become dispirited and just surrender.  But, before everyone gets too excited, let’s look back at the history of Civitas polls.

In 2014, the final poll Civitas issued in the US Senate race had Kay Hagan defeating Thom Tillis.  (Though most everyone else got it wrong, too.  One obscure poll — the Harper Poll — was the only one to pick ol’ Thom. And they came within a whisker of nailing the victory margin.) 

In 2016,  the final poll Civitas issued in the governor’s race had Pat McCrory knocking off Roy Cooper.

Late in the 2018 primary season, Civitas released a poll showing Robert Pittenger defeating Mark Harris by a whopping 32 percentage points.

If Civitas polls had any connection to reality, we’d still be dealing with Senator Kay Hagan and Governor Pat McCrory.  And Robert Pittenger would be currently slogging through another reelection battle.

These days, with the abandonment of land lines and the adoption of unpublished cell numbers and caller ID, and automated polling systems that can’t tell if an actual registered voter is on the line, it’s harder and harder to get a representative, accurate sample of the electorate.  I know a handful of consultants out there who don’t even bother with polling.  It offers little to no useful information, they tell me.  

If you live in the 9th congressional district, my advice to you is to pay NO attention to polls.  Research the candidates.  Question them on the issues.  Go into the polling place INFORMED.


9 thoughts on “#ncpol: About those Civitas polls …

  1. Has anyone told John Hood Donald Trump is still President and is doing a great job. Even has one incredible Supreme Court Judge already on the bench with at least one more to come. Maybe the smug Hood doesn’t know as much or is as smart as he pretends to be.
    Machines pick cotton now not people. Hood and Pope are elitist and like elitist globalist, not a believer in American exceptionalism. That is why when you vote you must be very careful because the republican party will nominate globalist as candidates from top to bottom. This all started when it became easy and very profitable for corporations to move operations overseas for slave wages and transportation cost became extremely cheap. What became apparent is the move actually moved high paying high skilled jobs like the textile and furniture industry jobs in North Carolina to China.
    Hood and Pope are establishment players and part of the problem now. Tied closely to the open borders Koch brothers so called “free trade” globalist.
    I don’t trust anything coming from the “Pope Empire” anymore.

  2. I see the point overall, but you cannot really fault the 2016 governor result. There was no way to predict or take into account how the race was decided by the demorat fraud when they “found” the 90,000 votes in the Durham area at 11pm on election night. Maybe Civitas has begun to bake in dem fraud into their poll numbers now?

    1. Unfortunately Jack Hawke died and McCory was surrounded with incompetent advisors. Hawke would have blown Cooper out of the water easily.

      1. McCrory blew the race with stupid positions that alienated parts of the GOP base like his I-77 toll lanes, attack on Sons of Confederate Veterans license plates, and attack on commercial fishermen. If Hawke had lived, I doubt any of those blunders would have happened, and McCrory would still be sitting in the Governor’s mansion today instead of Commie Cooper.

        1. if McCrory was really a conservative he would not have needed a advisor to keep him from making those blunders to begin with

          The problem is not the Hawke passed away the problem is that McCory was a moderate to start with walking the middle line trying to keep both sides of the isle happy depending on what side would help him more

        2. Some of those constituencies aren’t well represented in my county but one of them that you didn’t mention, the Hasan Harnett supporters, decided to take out their frustration on McCrory and it definitely impacted him, at least in my County.

      2. A lot of McCrory’s problem was how he staffed his administration. Party activists and conservatives were mostly given the bums rush and too many Democrats and liberals, holdovers and new hires, got policy positions. Only half the cabinet was even Republican, and only one had a history as a party activist, and it got worse in lower positions. What could go wrong with that?

        Jim Holshouser and Jim Martin had the good sense to staff their administrations with policy oriented Republicans who kept the party base happy with policy positions, and Martin’s consultant, Brad Hayes rode herd on both patronage and policy. McCrory was adrift on policy. That is why the holdover Democrat McCrory left at DOT put together that disastrous I-77 toll lane blunder that clobbered McCrory among GOP voters in North Mecklenburg and South Iredell. McCrory’s liberal Democrat appointee as Secretary of Cultural Resources did not, of course, give him a heads up when McCrory made the blunder on the SCV license plates. A non-Republican Assistant Secretary at DOT was responsible for the earlier blunder on NC drivers licenses for DACA illegal aliens. The list could go on.

        In the Martin administration, Wilma Sherrill (an establishment type, but at least she did not seek to hire Democrats) had 14 people on her staff to see that policy-oriented Republicans staffed the administration. McCrory had no one at all officially doing that, although his Boards and Commissions staffer (one guy) sometimes tried to help Republicans seeking positions but usually got nowhere with the cabinet secretaries.

        Patronage drives policy and policy drives elections, something McCrory never seemed to comprehend. I suspect that Dan Forest will do a whole lot better on that score. If he doesn’t, he will likely be a one termer like McCrory.

  3. You are correct, Patrick, about McCrory and the middle line.
    You, GU Wonder are also correct about the kick in the teeth to the commercial fishing industry thanks to the Coastal CONservation Association and those politically sympathetic to them.
    Browny Douglas

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