#ncga: Sources say NC House GOP polling shows disaster in Wake, Meck races

captureflatIt may be in bad taste to reference hurricanes right now — given that much of the state is still recovering from Matthew’s flooding.

But pollsters hired by the NC House Republicans are describing the caucus’s prospects in two of the state’s largest counties as being like “hurricanes.”

Sources tell me that every House race in Wake County — with the exception of the vacant House seat — has the Republican candidate down 5 to 10 points to their Democrat challenger.  McCrory and Trump are each losing those counties by at least a dozen points, as well.

So, with the resignation of Charles Jeter, the House is divided at 73 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 1 Independent.

If the polling scenario described to me HOLDS — the Democrats will pick up seats currently held by Chris Malone, Marilyn Avila, Nelson Dollar, and Gary Pendleton. That would bring the split to 69-49-1. Let’s say the Democrats, mailboxas they are favored to do, pick up the vacant Jeter seat in Mecklenburg.  That brings the split to 69-50-1.

Then, let’s say the Democrats pick up the Outer Banks seat being vacated by Democrat-turned-Independent Paul Tine.  That brings the split to 69-51.   That takes the majority out of veto-proof range.

(We’re also assuming that the GOP holds all other seats it currently holds.  Things COULD get worse.) 

It also gets things close enough to where some cross-party wheeling-and-dealing, like the 2002 Morgan-Black deal, can go down.  Nine GOPers walking across the aisle is all it would take. 

Contrary to what the lying media jackals tell you, this situation is not about HB2.  Mailers and ads — from Super PACs affiliated with the environmental wackos and Planned Parenthood — are pouring into these districts with little or no counter-strategy or response from the right.  I am told at least one of these races has had 18 mailers from PACs supporting the Democrat hit mailboxes, as opposed to ZERO for the Republican.  How do you tell your story when there are 18 mailers going out to constituents telling them what a $%#@*& you are?

How does this happen?  How does a veto-proof majority get blown out of the water in the campaign spending race?  When you are in the majority, you are in the driver seat to collect all the campaign cash.  We got warned the Left was going to carpet-bomb these two counties.  And here we are letting them do it.

What happened?

I bet Charles Jeter can tell us.

13 thoughts on “#ncga: Sources say NC House GOP polling shows disaster in Wake, Meck races

  1. You know I have a line inside a campaign. Its all about HB2. Every time there is resistance that’s the subject. The only subject. Polls,calls and doors, and events if there is a negative response that’s the issue. One other thing. I was at an event with my candidate for another candidate who talked HB2 and was discussing churches and their silence. Without going into the message it came to me nobody but Franklin Graham is speaking up. Think deeply about that.

    1. Wake County’s media is dominated by two extreme left media outlets, WRAL and the News and Observer, which propagandize and distort on HB2. If they were not propagandizing and distorting on that, it would be on something else. These are organs of propaganda these days, not legitimate news media. They are even worse than the Clinton News Network (CNN) nationally.

      We knew this was coming when the BLUEPRINT document was leaked a couple of years ago. The NCGOP has been singular in its incompetence in countering Blueprint, even knowing what was going on. Every Blueprint maneuver such as the Moron Mondays should have been denounced as part of Blueprint, and so should the liberal media jihad on HB2. Republicans should have consistently referred Moral Mondays as ”Blueprint Mondays” and referred to the round reverend as ”Rev. Blueprint”.

      But that is what we get with total incompetents like Dallas Woodhouse running the show. First they neutered the state chairman elected by convention and then replaced him with a senile figurehead chairman. Woodhouse has no political savvy whatsoever, and is not taking direction from anyone who does.

      As to the churches and HB2, you are flat wrong. The Christian Action League is quite active in supporting that bathroom privacy legislation.

      On Wake County, I am sorry that Marilyn Avila is in trouble. She is an excellent legislator, but Nelson Dollar would be no loss at all. Have all of Dollar’s special interest cronies abandoned him?

  2. As usual the GOP is playing Tiddly Winks in the corner with themselves ignoring the competition while the democraps play chess. The GOP needs to make some kind of coordinated effort to steal some people who run these types of campaigns for the leftists…because they sure do not learn on their own.

  3. Conservative activism is not seen or supported by the party elites, so we should be surprised they are not waging counter attacks??

  4. Several years ago Republicans were told (close paraphrase) “do you want us to spend the money on the message for what we are doing now or do you want it during the election.” That came straight from my candidate. Meaning Republicans don’t have money for both? I assume everyone knew that environment before HB2. Yes some past donors have abandoned the GOP, but some House members are not contributing to candidates or paying dues either. Regarding churches again: One of your candidates went to a Right to Life meeting. (He talked with me at a Dan Forest event). The church (the location) was locked up and the host pastor AWOL! Only three people showed

    1. There are ways to use the bully pulpit during the session that do not deplete campaign funds.

      What is even more outrageous is using caucus resources in primaries to help big government Republicans.

  5. Unless previously conservative Unas change their voting pattern, I’d still bet Avila and Malone survive, polls notwithstanding. But here’s the interesting part…if neither does, George Holding may not carry Wake either, which is a big deal although it doesn’t mean he’ll lose….not with Harnett, Franklin, and especially Johnston counties to bail him out. On second thought, he may not carry Franklin though which would also set up an interesting scenario for Senator Barefoot.

  6. “Give up your liberty for security” and “We’ll discriminate against people you know and care about” aren’t such hot campaign slogans afterall.

  7. Why is anyone surprised? The Romney-Bush political establishment elites are in the tank for Hillary and the corrupt DC establishment. They have cut off the money for conservatives, turned their back on the white working class voter, and already plotting the deals they will cut with Clinton. As for our GOP House members, what have they done? Nothing that I can think of. Oh, I forgot—they appointed a bunch of liberal RINOs and Democrats to the UNC Board of Governors. No loss if they all lose.

    1. That’s the problem Richard. No one knows the state house republicans cut taxes 4.7 billion through 2018. Or that unemployment has more than halfed. From amongst the worst to first. That 9 billion in tax benefits are accrued to you. Think of the 3 billion deficit now a 1.6 rainy day fund with 400 mil in surpluses. Think of the 2.8 billion unemployment debt now at a 1.2 surplus. Think of the 5 years of 500 million dollar over runs in medicaid now with three straight years of cash on hand at the end of the year. Last one I think 200 mil? That’s a lot of nothing if you ask me. Heck I’m guessing its better than 9 billion

  8. When McCain got the nomination, we talked about intentionally tanking the party to start a rebuild. Rush talked us out of it. Now, if Trump loses, which is likely, it’s tempting to do what needs to be done. The sad part is that the party is tanking itself. We should have put it out of our misery in 2008.

  9. August Wolf: What you say is true, but how do you explain the wholesale disaster of the House Republicans’ UNC BOG appointments? These were the most important and critical appointments they had to make. And they blew it.

  10. I happened to look at the NRA endorsements and those Wake races were generally not endorsed, which is odd in that NRA always tries to pander to incumbents, even if they are not all that solid. I noticed that the Wake GOP reps not endorsed had grades of B from NRA, so it looks like NRA is tightening their requirements while our Wake legislators strayed from the conservative path on gun rights votes. That means no NRA endorsement and no orange postcards endorsing them mailed to the NRA lists in their districts.

    NRA gave Dollar an A- and an endorsement but Malone and Avila got B’s and no endorsement and Pendleton a B- and no endorsement.

    Straying from the conservative line on a key issue can come back to bite a politician in the rear end at election time.

    That said, I trust the Grassroots North Carolina assessment of candidates a lot more than I trust NRA, and they gave Avila and Dollar 3 stars (out of 4 max) each, Malone 2 stars and Pendleton 1 star. Something seems a bit screwy with NRA’s assessment of Avila, but Pendleton and Malone clearly have problems of their own making with gun rights voters.

    One thing I like about the NRA taking a tougher line is to look at all the RINO’s in the legislature without an NRA endorsement this election. If the NRA will stick to the same standard come primary time in two years, we can take some of the RINO’s down in primaries. Of course some RINO’s are smart enough to know that the wrong votes on gun rights can be politically fatal and they vote right on those issues even if they really would rather not, as is likely the case with Dollar.

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