NC-09: Oh, look. ANOTHER POLL.

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This one is from a  group called Atlantic Media & Research:

 

Atlantic Media & Research completed 358 surveys of registered voters who said their chances of voting in the September Special Election for Congress were “definite” or “very likely” on May 20-23 and May 28-30, 2019.

 

Response rates were very low, indicating turnout will be key in this election. The theoretical margin of error is +/- 5.2 percent in 95 percent of cases on a 50 percent response.

 

Calls were made by live callers from our facilities in Nags Head, North Carolina. 58 percent of completed surveys were to cellphone numbers while 42 percent went to landlines. Among those definitely voting, 54 percent completed surveys on cellphone numbers and 46 percent on landlines. […]

 

Okay.  ANOTHER small sample and large margin of error.  (Color me a little skeptical, already.)

 

 

MORE:

 

There’s been little movement in this race since December despite a big Republican Primary and a new candidate. As was the case with Mark Harris before him, Dan Bishop underperforms the generic ballot. The difference between the two elections is that Harris ran worse in the immediate Charlotte suburbs, while Bishop underperforms more in the East where he is less known.

 

The biggest problem Republicans face is a poorly motivated electorate, and a result of a nominee defined by his support for HB2, legislation even his own party threw overboard. To win this election, the Bishop team needs to make HB2 a plus because if not the race will be a referendum on “hate” and Bishop will lose. The open-endeds, which we will not discuss in detail in this memo, make that clear.

 

McCready leads Bishop 41-39, very similar to his 46-43 lead over Harris in our December survey. But we’re putting more stock in the numbers from “definite” voters (70 percent of the sample), where McCready holds a 44-40 lead. […] 

 

Hmmm,  G.I. Ginger on top?

 

 

MORE:

 

The GOP leads 46-38 in the generic ballot, similar to the 45-36 lead in December, but slightly down with definite voters which is a cause for concern.

 

Also nearly identical to December were responses to the question whether voters wanted their member to “support the Trump Agenda” or “resist the Trump Agenda”, which shifted from 51-39 support in December to 51-37 in May, but again that drops to 51-42 with those definitely voting.

 

The President was 41-42 net unfavorable in December (8 percent mixed, who are strongly Republican). This has shifted to 41-40 net positive, 13 mixed, again leaning strongly Republican), although these numbers are identical to December with definite voters.

 

May respondents were also slightly more polarized than those from December. This is in part caused by a different screen. The December survey asked if voters participated in the 2018 election while the May survey asked the chances of voting in the September Special Election, resulting in a significantly lower response rate. The polarization expands even more with those definitely voting.

 

15 percent of respondents are self-described liberals, 29 percent moderate and 51 percent conservative. Among those definitely voting 16 percent are liberal, 28 percent moderate and 52 percent conservative. That’s a change from 14 percent liberal, 34 percent moderate and 45 percent conservative in December. […]

 

McCready’s lead expands among those definitely voting, while votes for the Libertarian and Green candidates dropped significantly. Democrats are slightly more energized at this point in the race.

 

McCready leads 46-34 with women while Bishop is up 45-36 with men. Bishop drops the most among men definitely voting, where he is up just 44-42 (he is down 45-35 with women definitely voting).

 

27 percent of voters are under 50 and McCready leads 41-30 there, while Bishop leads 44-41 among those 50 and up, which drops to 43-42 among those definitely voting. McCready is up 48-29 with those under 50 who are definitely coming out (but that’s just 22 percent of the definites.)

 

Bishop leads 50-33 with the 52 percent who attend weekly services, while McCready is up 57-21 with the 21 percent who never attend, again, tightening among definites to 47-35 with the first group and opening up to 65-19 with the second group.

 

With this electorate, 71 percent of those over 75 years of age attend weekly services, about half of those 35-74 and a third of those under 35. The numbers are slightly higher with African-Americans.

 

McCready wins liberals 93-0 and moderates by 58-22. Bishop wins “somewhat” conservative voters by just 51-19 (25 percent of respondents) and “very” conservative voters by 74-10 (26 percent of the total.) Clearly he needs to solidify that base, a lot. […]

 

Whereas in December McCready benefitted from personal strength versus the generic, the May contest is more about Bishop’s weakness versus the generic ballot. At the time of the December survey, Harris was still a viable candidate. Bishop needs to go on offense, say what he is for, and contrast that with his leftist neo-Socialist opponent.

[…]

 

The polling finds McCready’s favorable rating down 3% since December to 29.3%.   It’s at 32.8% for those who say in May they are definitely voting.   His unfavorables have dropped 1.1% since December to 15.9%.  They’re at 17.6% for people who say they are definitely voting in July.

MORE:

 

[…] Bishop starts off with high negatives among those definitely voting, and it’s heavily focused on HB2. Bishop cannot win this election unless he turns around HB2 and makes his support a plus. He is 16-14 with women and 18-13 with men, dropping to 18-20 and 18-17 with definites. He is 23-12 with those who attend weekly services and 7-19 with those who never do.

[…]

 

A MAJORITY WANTS THEIR HOUSE MEMBER TO SUPPORT THE TRUMP AGENDA

 

By a 51-37 margin, a majority of voters want their house member to support the Trump agenda versus those who want a vote to “resist” it. Men support this by a strong 60-31 while women are slightly split against (43-44). It’s supported by all age groups except those under 35 (36-48 against), and get stronger with age. Those over 75 back it by 62-37. People attending weekly services are in favor by 62-27 while those who never attend are 32-57 the other way.

 

Not surprisingly, Generic Republicans want their member to support the Trump Agenda by a 96-1 margin. What is surprising is the near-unanimity here. Generic Democrats are 5-84 against and liberals 0-86. Moderates oppose it by 33-50. Those somewhat conservative back it by 70-23 and very conservative voters by 87-9.

 

Voters who want their member to support the Trump Agenda are backing Bishop by 74-5 while those on the “resist” side are for McCready by 87-1. Those in the middle are currently voting 51-12 for McCready. Bishop is currently running 11 points behind the generic ballot among those who want their house member to support the Trump Agenda, while McCready is paralleling the “resist” vote. […]

 

CONCLUSIONS

 

1. Despite being down in the numbers, this is Dan Bishop’s race to lose. It’s all about turnout, and whether the message can drive it. So far, it’s not working.

 

2. Bishop needs to consolidate his conservative base, and boost his numbers in the rural parts of the district. His current “Good Dan, Bad Dan” ad running in the Myrtle Beach/Florence market isn’t cutting it.

 

3. The open-endeds show HB2 as Bishop’s biggest negative, but he’s not getting the plus side of this issue. Republicans need to expand the narrative beyond bathrooms to men on girls sports teams, radical pro-abortion policies and the extreme anti-American cultural agenda McCready and his allies endorse.

 

4. Embracing Trump and the Trump Agenda will go a long way, but it takes actions more than rhetoric. Voters are looking for a champion to take on the left. Bishop did it when he sponsored HB2. But he needs to show why these fights are important, and why he’s running for Congress to carry on that fight. […]

 

For all of you poll geeks out there, HERE is the full memo on the findings.