#NC-02: A few thoughts on the RINO hunt
Well, this ad popped up during the most recent televised GOP presidential debate — making it clear that North Carolina’s Second Congressional District GOP primary will be just as much of a media circus. The primary is officially a foursome. In the early stages of this crowded environment, we thought it might be crucial to bring up a few key points:
Kay Daly. She’s been much more low-profile in-state than her husband Jack. As the GOP nominee for state auditor, he took Democrat incumbent Ralph Campbell down to the wire in 2000. Kay, herself, spent some time as the official mouthpiece for the NCGOP.
But the couple has spent the great majority of their time in the DC area since then. I saw the list of endorsees on her site — from bomb-throwers like Eugene Delgaudio to religious right leaders like Gary Bauer and James Dobson – and noted only ONE (George Little) who can even vote in the Second District.
The Dalys ties to the Second District are a bit sketchy. They just moved to Moore County this year. This opens them up to carpet-bagging, parachuting-in accusations. (Though, those didn’t seem to hurt Richard Hudson.)
I don’t know that I could ID Kay Daly if I bumped into her on the street. (I actually had a tough time finding a picture on Google for an earlier post.) Most voters in the Se
cond are not going to be familiar with her activities in the conservative activism arena. This ad is likely the first impression they are going to have of her. Will an image of her firing a shotgun — with an angry expression on her face — be an introduction that makes local voters comfortable with her?
Team Daly needs to get their girl out and about. The Second is a small-market district. Retail politicking in small-town functions is what works. If she wants to win, she needs to couple her no-holds-barred attack on Ellmers with a sincere effort to convince local voters that she is ”one of us.”
Frank Roche. Frank is a known quantity. He was Ellmers’s lone opponent last time around. (He also ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2010 and state treasurer in 2012.)
Roche hasn’t exactly established a reputation for posting competitive fundr
aising numbers. He was badly outraised by Ellmers in 2014 and is not exactly lighting fires this year.
I have no doubt Roche would rack up a much better voting record in Congress than Ellmers. But he HAS to GET THERE first. To do that, you have to woo the people casting votes. You have to raise your name ID. You have to put a message out there that tells the voters they need you more than the incumbent.
From what I’ve seen — via Youtube — and heard — from all kinds of political operatives and voters — Frank has a hard time getting people to warm up to him. If you tick off enough people — or spend way too much time telling people how much smarter you are than them — your ability to raise money to run a competitive race and win enough votes is seriously hampered. If Roche wants a different election day headline — different from those of the last three cycles — he needs to really bone up on his people skills.
Jim Duncan. Overall, he presents an attractive package. A successful self-made businessman. Well-versed on the issues. A solid conservative. A leader in his community. NOT a politician. 
The problem? So far, Duncan has spent an inordinate amount of time selling people on how nice of a guy he is. (That is an easy sell.) His team needs to devote some more time to selling the idea that Ellmers needs to go (and be replaced by Duncan.) There is a lot of ammo out there to use.
Ronald Reagan had a lot of success presenting himself as a nice guy, while making the case why Jimmy Carter needed to go and Walter Mondale needed to stay in retirement.
Renee Ellmers. Hoo-boy. Talk about a target-rich opportunity. She got into Congress in 2010 thanks to a seething hatred of Bob Etheridge. Thanks to her prima donna attitude and her deceit on the issues, she is in real danger of meeting Etheridge’s fate. She got lucky 
with some generous redistricting and two cycles with under-funded, lesser-known primary opponents.
The Tea Party clearly put her over the top in 2010. Since then, she’s thumbed her nose at these grassroots warriors. Ellmers has embraced the DC establishment — voting to raise the debt ceiling, voting for amnesty, poo-pooing efforts to kill ObamaCare, blocking a late-term abortion ban, voting for tax increases, and growing government.
Yet, she’s survived her under-funded primary challenges by lying through her teeth via paid media. Once again, she’s sending out campaign mailers at taxpayer expense. (Anytime you see a signature where a stamp should be, that means YOU and I are paying for it.) The 
latest mailer includes the laugher that she voted FOR the late-term abortion ban. (Yeah, she did the previous two years. But this year, she led the effort to kill it.)
That ranks right up there on the dishonesty scale with her 2012 televised claim that she was ”a fighter for traditional marriage.” While that ad was running, she was publicly bad-mouthing the marriage amendment to the state constitution.
Ellmers tries to call herself a conservative. But all kinds of vote rankings indicate she is clearly the most liberal Republican member of North Carolina’s congressional delegation.
Renee Ellmers needs to have been gone yesterday. She is a disgrace. She is emblematic of what’s wrong with Washington. We’ve got a great choice of candidates here to choose from as her replacement. Let’s hope the challengers spend more time selling the voters on the need to retire Ellmers than they do trashing each other.
That would be a great way to allow Big Government Barbie™ to sneak back in for two more destructive years.
Karpetbagging Kay is just muddying the waters. How does she call herself a conservative with only ”Mr Establishment” George Little endorsing her locally? That nest of DC beltway people know nothing of the 2nd district. Little is probably pushing her as a tactical move to split the conservative vote so that Ellmers gets back.
There was already a solid conservative challenger to Ellmers. If Kay were really a conservative, she would have carpetbagged to another district with an establishment incumbent in need of a challenge like the 10th or 7th or 9th.
Don’t forget the 13th. That guy is a lip-service, can’t-do Conservative in Name only.
Jim Duncan IS more than just a great guy. He isn’t looking for a new job. He’s already had a successful career. He is a true conservative who wants to serve the people of his district and North Carolina. Jim Duncan is a servant leader.
Rep. Renee Ellmers has failed to represent the voters in her district. After an historic waive of sweeping conservative majorities in both the House and Senate, she refuses to represent the constituents who sent her there to take action. In fact, Ms. Ellmers has racked up a record of siding with the establishment and a strategy that is failing, headed up by Speaker Boehner.
Frank Roche thinks that he smarter than everyone else. He’s always talking. He never listens. Why is he running anyway? I guess he needs a job.
I don’t have a clue who Kay Daly is or why she wants to represent the people of District 2. Does she? Maybe she needs a job too.
Jim Duncan is a credible candidate. He has a credible campaign. His positions on immigration, government spending, Obamacare, support for the military, and the sanctity of life are truly conservative. Renee’s voting record is not.
Can anybody tell me HOW Jim Duncan is getting his message out to voters of NC2? I’ve not seen or heard much, though I’ve heard he’s been speaking to GOP groups. But other than that? I’ve not heard him doing radio interviews, going after Ellmers and establishment GOP on issues like immigration, the TPA/TPP and so forth. The man needs to be in full attack mode, pointing out all of the ways Ellmers has betrayed voters.
It looks to me that Duncan is using the campaign plan I see in most elections, which is to first introduce the candidate to the voters, then start drawing distinctions with the opponent. With a primary date in May, it is still early in the game, but with a change to March, then advertising time will get crowded with presidential candidates, and that would bring a need to move up the issue phase.
It is way early to be doing any significant advertising either way..
Good people of Haymaker- “Walt Edwards” is really Kay or Jack Daly. This was almost the exact same words I heard Kay Daly use in a conversation about a month ago. Uncanny? Coincidence? I don’t think so…
Never Forget Pastor Randy! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1085511/posts
I will not trust the terrible twosome. Ever. There goal is to cause chaos in the district and make sure Renee gets re-elected. They are inside the Washington machine political carpetbaggers. Lookout people, here they come!
Renee Ellmers is awful and needs to be replaced by a genuine conservative. That is the result I want to see in the 2nd district. I have met each of the challengers one time, although with Daly it was many years ago. I don’t have any personal reason to favor one over another. The key is setting up the most effective and successful challenge to Ellmers. To do that, conservatives need to unite behind one candidate. Splitting the conservative vote just helps Ellmers.
I am sure that each of the challengers would vote substantially better than Ellmers, so that is not an important distinction between them.
Roche is a flawed candidate who cannot raise money. He had his shot and he blew it. He needs to get his ego in check and stop muddying the water in the Congressional race. The low single digits he will get just might be enough to save Ellmers, and that would be a dreadful result. I am sure he can probably find a RINO legislator to run against, and he might actually be able to win that type of race, which is better for everyone.
Duncan has shown he can raise money, and from Brant’s earlier articles, I recall that the majority of it was from North Carolina and from individual contributors. He also seems to have a good relationship with some of the conservative campaign players nationally. He got in early and has built a good following among the party grassroots.
Daly is a johnnie come lately, both to the district and to the race. She has some big name issues type people in DC willing to put their names behind her, plus one of the main leaders of the moderate GOP establishment in the district.
I have already made a commitment to Duncan and sent him some money. I do not see any reason not to stay the course.
With the local State Rep being a bit of a RINO, and even the previously conservative local State Senator going off the reservation on green energy, there are other races that Daly could run in which would actually move the ball forward for conservatives instead of gum up the works of the challenge to Ellmers.
Duncan answered a call for someone to step forward to challenge Ellmers. Daly is answering the call of her own ego. Like Roche, she should rein that in, and run for another office.