All of the pundits are declaring Thom Tillis the hands-down winner of the GOP primary for US Senate — a whole month before the first votes get cast. Gov. Pat McCrory told that low-grade birdcage liner The Washington Post, this week, that Thom Tillis is “the most electable” and “most viable” candidate in our US Senate race. Really? What are we basing that observation on?
Allow us to introduce some facts and data into the discussion — specifically, the RealClearPolitics polling averages for North Carolina’s US Senate primary. RCP has Tillis averaging a +5.0 lead over the rest of the primary field, with roughly 25-35 percent undecided. (Not exactly a comfortable cushion.)
Let’s look at the averages for the head-to-head matchups with Hagan for the general election. For a Tillis-Hagan matchup, RCP has found an average margin of victory for Hagan of +0.2.
For a Brannon-Hagan general election matchup, RCP finds an average margin of victory for Brannon of +1.0. For a Harris-Hagan matchup, RCP found a TIE between the two candidates. For a Grant-Hagan matchup, RCP found an average margin of victory for Hagan of +2.7. For an Alexander-Hagan general election matchup, RCP finds an average margin of victory for Alexander of +2.7.
So — if you are actually looking at facts and data, and NOT working from personal bias — Ted Alexander is the most viable candidate against Kay Hagan in the general election. He’s followed by Brannon and then Harris. According to the data, Heather Grant and Thom Tillis are the least electable in the field.