#ncgov: Peck-ing away at the polls

It’s usually not a good sign when your candidate’s team starts publicly poo-pooing the polls. After weeks of not so friendly findings being released publicly, Governor Pat McCrory’s team went public with some criticism of the polls (especially the latest from Monmouth and CNN):

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First, Russell knows better on this whole sampling thing. You can’t poll EVERYBODY.  Statistical computations are performed to come up with a reliable sample size.  He cites PwTV0-Wgthe “more than ten million” figure.  According to the state board of elections,  North Carolina currently has 6,668,789 registered voters.   A total of 4,372.287 people voted in the 2012 race for North Carolina governor.

  The margin of error is key to look at in determining how reliable a poll is.   For Monmouth’s poll, the MOE was +-4.9 percent.  That means McCrory and Cooper’s individual percentages could be as much as 4.9 percent higher or 4.9 percent lower than what has been reported. 

Monmouth has Cooper leading 52-43.  With the margin of error,  the lead could be as little as 4.1 percent or as high as 13.9 percent.  The poll puts Cooper outside the margin of error — a safe place to be.  

CNN’s poll has Cooper up 50-44 with a +-3.5 percent margin of error.  A  statistically more reliable finding than Monmouth.  So, the lead could be as little as 2.5% or as high as 9.5 percent.  This poll, too, has Cooper outside the margin of error.  Again, a very safe place to be.  patroy

Both polls have Republicans Trump and Burr locked in tight, neck-and-neck races, while the McCrory-Cooper race is much more one-sided. It’s hard to play the conspiracy card here.  Why not show Trump and Burr down big too? 

CNN did pretty well in its October 2014 polling of the Hagan-Tillis race.   They had Hagan up 48-46 during the last week of October.  (She lost 49-47.3.)  They, PPP and Rasmussen came the closest to the final result.  

So far, in 2016, only PPP and Civitas have produced polls kind to McCrory.  Civitas has given leads of 5 and 7 to McCrory in May and June respectively.  PPP called the race a TIE in May and June. (Their August poll, however, gave Cooper a one-point lead.)

Other than PPP and Civitas, pollsters looking at this race since April have consistenly pegged a Cooper lead anywhere from  6 to 9 points.  (The pollsters really fell on their faces in 2014. Only one — something called the Harper poll — picked Thom Tillis to beat Kay Hagan in the waning days of the race. )

pat worriedGranted, the real heat of the campaign hasn’t been stirred up yet.  But Team McCrory needs to take these findings very, very seriously.  They haven’t done  a great job of winning the people’s hearts and minds or making the case for another four years.

Right now, with the ads I’ve been seeing, Cooper actually sounds more conservative than McCrory.  The low-info voters may actually mistake Cooper for the Republican in the race. 

Roy Cooper is the second coming of Mike Easley.  If Cooper comes out on top in November, it won’t be due to any sort of accomplishment or WOW factor.  It will be due to the squandering of a marvelous opportunity by the current occupant of that big house on Blount Street.

11 thoughts on “#ncgov: Peck-ing away at the polls

  1. McCrory is reluctant to go negative in campaigns, and dealing with a weasel like Cooper who not only goes negative but twists and distorts in the process, it is necessary to use every tactic available to stop him. McCrory will be letting the people of North Carolina down if he restrains his campaign leadership from running honest negative ads against Cooper. There is enough out there on Cooper that there is not a need distort anything. Just tell the truth on Cooper’s lousy record.

    1. I just don’t think Pat has the cojones to go that direction. As with many R’s he does not realize that the campaign is a no holds barred contest and he seems to prefer the metaphorical high road.

        1. That is not the ad that has been playing the most. The one I usually see is the happy pappy “Carolina Comeback” type ad. Hopefully the attack ads will ramp up, especially with the target rich environment Ol’Roy has provided.

          1. The Republican Governors Association also advertises in this race. Look at the disclaimers. Are the better ads RGA ads or McCrory committee ads?

  2. No matter whether you always agree or occasionally disagree with Gov. McCrory, he has done his job, and deserves a second term. Roy Cooper has taken your money and refused to do his job. Why would we give him another high position?

  3. Here we go again. An election that should be a lay down is alas appearing to be at best a nail biter. So glad Woodhouse and crew wasted and continue to waste all of their time circling the wagons to keep themselves in power and none of their time uniting to win elections.

    Every single GOP candidate must grow some cajones immediately and start running smart on-the-offense campaigns. I am not sure who is running your campaign — Dan Forrest, Buck Newton, etc. — but your message is NOT getting out there.

    And, Pat, get a grip. You need to reboot fast starting with sending Peck packing.

  4. If McCrory had taken a position and took action to repeal Common Core and put in place solid standards such as the former MA state standards, he would be winning by a large margin. About half our State budget goes to education and we are stuck with a Common Core re-brand. What a missed opportunity.

    1. He also has fallen off cultivating close relations with the leadership of his Party, the real leaders out in the counties doing the trench work, not his tame hacks at NCGOP. That’s going to hurt him because too often he has left county organizations in the dark and scratching their heads about a lot of the policy positions he takes. Old timers tell me that the last Republican Governor was careful not to make that mistake.

    2. The big difference I see in comparison with Jim Martin’s reelection is the much lower level of enthusiasm among party activists for McCrory as compared to Martin. Sure they will vote for McCrory and give lip service at least to supporting him but there is far from the level of energy and enthusiasm that there was for Martin.

      The reason is that while Martin largely governed through using GOP stalwarts to man his administration, McCrory has largely given them the cold shoulder. Martin’s cabinet were people known and trusted by GOP activists. McCrory’s were mostly unknowns and half of them were not even Republicans. When one goes below the cabinet secretaries, Martin had an office within the governor’s office headed by Wilma Sherrill with a staff of 14 that actively placed GOP activists in those lower slots. McCrory has no such office within the governors office and GOP activists usually get the cold shoulder by the departments if they seek positions within the administration.

      That personnel policy will not get McCrory any more votes from non-Republicans, but it has sure cooled the jets of GOP activists in being motivated to really beat the bushes for McCrory.

      I am really sorry that McCrory has done this to himself, as we do not need Soros-backed liberal Roy Cooper as our governor.

  5. I just see little enthusiasm for McCrory among the conservative grass roots. And the Washington DC GOP Bush-Romney operatives are openly supporting Hillary which will probably doom down-ballot candidates in North Carolina and other states as well. The grassroots are solidly for Trump and he is their only source of excitement right now. But, sadly, the GOP bosses despise these voters. Not looking good at all.

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