#2016POLLS: Tighter than Bill Barber’s SPANX!

That’s right. It looks like we have nail-biters all around the top of the tickets this November.  (Of course, things NEVER seem to really heat up until right after Labor Day.) But — looking at the polls right now, November looks like ANYONE’S GAME in North Carolina.

President.  As of June 24, the Real Clear Politics average of all North Carolina polls on this race shows Hillary atop The Donald 44.0% to 43.3%.  By this time, in 2012, most polls had Romney up two points over Obama in North Carolina — which, of course, was Romney’s winning margin in the state.

US Senate.  As of June 21, the Real Clear Politics average of North Carolina polls on this race has Richard Burr atop Deborah Ross 41.3% to 37.3%.  By this time in 2014, Kay Hagan had leads in the polls over Thom Tillis between 1 and 4 points.  (Thilli$$$ ended up winning by a margin of 1.7%.)   By this time in 2010, the polls had Burr up by margins anywhere from 1 to 10 points over Elaine Marshall.  (He ended up winning by a margin of 12.1 percent.)

Governor.  2008 was the last time we had governor, senator AND president all on the same ballot in North Carolina.  By this time in 2008, the polls had Bev Perdue up 1 to 2 points over Pat McCrory.  She ended up winning by 3.4 percent.  In 2012, around this time, the polls had McCrory up over Walter Dalton anywhere between 2 and 14 points.  (McCrory ended up winning by 11.4 percent.)   This year, the RCP average gives Cooper a 0.3% lead over McCrory right now. 

Going back to 2008 — the polls around this time had Dole up 14 points over Kay Hagan, and McCain up by 4 points.  We know how those races ended up.  Hagan won by 8.5% and Obama edged out McCain by 0.3%.