Washington Post election model: 98 % chance Hagan wins reelection

sock puppetThe Post says Republicans will take the US Senate, but we — in North Carolina — can likely expect SIX MORE YEARS of Kay Hagan. 

The paper’s Election Lab predicts the GOP capturing currently-held Democrat seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia and Iowa.  They see Democrats continuing to hold seats in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon.  According to The Post, the GOP will hold a 52-48 majority when the smoke clears. 

The Post model gives Hagan a 98 percent chance of winning reelection.  The model shows Hagan having raised $14.3 million compared to Tillis’s $4.7 million.

In Virginia, incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is given a 99 percent chance of being reelected.  In West Virginia, Republican Shelley Capito is given a 99 percent chance of taking the seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Jay Rockefeller. Republican Lamar Alexander is given a 99 percent chance of winning reelection in Tennessee.   The Post puts Mitch McConnell’s chances of being reelected in Kentucky at 98 percent.  The Republican candidate in Louisiana is given a 69 percent chance of beating incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu.

A 52-48 majority gives a lot of power to leftist Republicans like Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mark Kirk of Illinois, Dean Heller of Nevada, and our ol’ ”buddy” Lindsey Graham. Given the propensity of that fivesome to play footsy with the Dems, a 52 seat majority may feel just like a 47 seat minority.

7 thoughts on “Washington Post election model: 98 % chance Hagan wins reelection

  1. The Beltway and Raleigh GOP, having handed the win to Hagan, needs a bracing wake up call. I say, let’s see the grassroots vote to beat Renee Ellmers, and send her home to Dunn, a very clear wake up call for the walking GOP cadaver. We need to snatch this Beltway-Raleig sub-species by the scruff of the neck and kick its butt. You want to play hard ball? Well, we’re your huckleberry.

  2. But the NC conservatives must not rest until Kay is reelected. There is still time for Rove to pull off the victory. We must remain vigilant and prove that NC conservatives are still relevant and that we can elect candidates. Reelecting Kay Hagan will give us credence for the future.

    1. I think you are a troll. No conservative wants to reelect Kay Hagan. She is a socialist Obamacrat. The problem is that we do not have a really viable choice, as the only candidate who has a chance of beating her is not that much different from Hagan. Conservative voters are between a rock and a hard place. Some want to send a message that we do not like being in this position without a decent choice Some see that as voting for a write in or the Libertarian, and some see it as holding their nose and voting for Hagan. Others are considering holding their noses as voting for Tillis as the lesser of two evils. For those who want to send a message, voting for an open border Libertarian is not a good way to do it. Voting for a write in or skipping the Senate race while voting in the others is a much better way. Personally, I would like to see Tillis doing some things to give conservatives more confidence in him, but he is not doing that, and his share of the conservative vote is likely to suffer as a result.

      1. No conservative wants to reelect Kay Hagan but that is what the conservatives are working for.

        The Tea Party should have worked to get Brannon into a runoff with Tillis but failed miserably.

        Now all the crybaby Tea Party can do is to try and maintain relevancy by defeating Tillis and reelecting Kay Hagan.

        How is that for trolling?

        1. The issue really has nothing at all to do with Brannon, who was really only the best of a second and third string lot. Many of us could have supported any of the primary field EXCEPT Tillis, and that has to do with Tillis’ own miserable record. It would be nice if Tillis could give us some reason to consider voting for him, but he continues to thumb his nose at conservatives and the issues that matter to us. Personally, it will take some real convincing to make me vote for an old Richard Morgan ally like Tillis but Tillis has dropped the ball or gone left on so many important issues.

          Tillis’ problem is not just with the more recent Tea Party activists, but with the conservative grassroots of the party. Personally, I am an old Jesse Helms / Ronald Reagan conservative, and I find it repulsive to think of either Hagan or Tillis in Jesse Helms old seat. Neither one could hold a candle to Jesse.

  3. Pelican:
    Name 1 accomplishment Hagan has to HER credit in 6 years.
    Name 1 conservative stand she has backed up with legislation.
    She’s a hypocrite multi-millionaire with no idea of the average NC voter. If she did she wouldn’t be Obama “southern”. She will be the first person to support the Dem’s new leftie radical Elizabeth Wareen for president. Either you are naïve or you are a dem TRYING to pose as conservative.

  4. The true conservative vote will not be “for” Kay Hagan, but rather “against” Thom Tillis. If there is only one true conservative in Raleigh, then so be it. A RINO is more repulsive than a charlatan like Tillis. In the year since another RINO, Pat McCrory has established himself in Raleigh, our state’s food-producing, job-producing, and tax base – producing fishermen have taken a licking. The recreational, charter, and commercial anglers have been sold to the Fed’s. Turtles, sturgeon, and now joint enforcement, all three administered by the FEDERAL OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, have been traded for “campaign contributions”. Look no further than all appointments under DENR, from the top, all the way to King Louie Daniel, not counting out the recent MFC appointments. We could tie in Jeff Warren, and oh so many more. Like I said……….. NOTHING IS AS VI LE AS A RINO. Somebody better talk sense into the Lt. Governor about primarying against Pat, or you can count Roy as your next governor. The Republican majority has hurt our industry more in 2 years than a majority democratic regime did in 45. And you want me to vote for Tillis?

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