Washington Post election model: 98 % chance Hagan wins reelection

sock puppetThe Post says Republicans will take the US Senate, but we — in North Carolina — can likely expect SIX MORE YEARS of Kay Hagan. 

The paper’s Election Lab predicts the GOP capturing currently-held Democrat seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia and Iowa.  They see Democrats continuing to hold seats in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon.  According to The Post, the GOP will hold a 52-48 majority when the smoke clears. 

The Post model gives Hagan a 98 percent chance of winning reelection.  The model shows Hagan having raised $14.3 million compared to Tillis’s $4.7 million.

In Virginia, incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is given a 99 percent chance of being reelected.  In West Virginia, Republican Shelley Capito is given a 99 percent chance of taking the seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Jay Rockefeller. Republican Lamar Alexander is given a 99 percent chance of winning reelection in Tennessee.   The Post puts Mitch McConnell’s chances of being reelected in Kentucky at 98 percent.  The Republican candidate in Louisiana is given a 69 percent chance of beating incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu.

A 52-48 majority gives a lot of power to leftist Republicans like Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mark Kirk of Illinois, Dean Heller of Nevada, and our ol’ ”buddy” Lindsey Graham. Given the propensity of that fivesome to play footsy with the Dems, a 52 seat majority may feel just like a 47 seat minority.