THREE IN A ROW: Another poll showing Trump leading in NC

poll-results4We’ve seen WRAL’s poll, and the one done by Red Wolf.  Now here comes The Trafalgar Group   with a poll showing Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in North Carolina by a margin of 49.13% to 44.16%.  The poll, taken of 1150 likely voters in NC between 10/27 and 11/1 has a margin of error of +-2.88%.

Among its other findings are:

  • 54% of respondents say they believe their neighbors are voting for Trump
  • 51% of respondents 62 and older are with Trump
  • A bare plurality of voters (44.77%)  between 56 and 61 are with Trump
  • Clinton has a small lead (49.82%) among voters between 46 and 55
  • For ages 36-45, Trump leads with 56.25%
  • For ages 25-36, Trump has a small lead (47.50%)
  • For 18-25 year olds, Clinton has a small lead (44.60%)
  • Clinton leads in the Charlotte metro area (51.40%)
  • Trump leads on the coast (53.33%)
  • ‘Clinton leads in the inner coastal plain (54.07%)
  • Trump leads in the mountains (57.61%)
  • Trump leads (54.53%) in the Piedmont
  • Trump leads among voters who have voted since 2008 (49.52%)
  • Trump’s lead narrows when you consider voters who have been active since 2006 (47.32%)
  • Voters who haven’t been active since 2006?  They favor Trump (53.64%).

Okay.  Here’s some analysis from the pollster:

[…] Commenting on the survey, TFG Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said, “It’s our belief that there is a significant “Brexit” type undercurrent 160720232714-01-donald-trump-with-mike-pence-rnc-convention-july-20-2016-large-169of support for Trump that many polls are not capturing. We have been asking a second ballot test question to measure who survey takers believe most their neighbors will vote for. In our Ohio, Florida, and this North Carolina survey we find a consistent pattern of Clinton support dropping 5-6% while Trump support increases 4.5-5.5% for this question.

Cahaly continued, “We believe the most accurate measure of support for each candidate is somewhere between how people answer for themselves and answer on behalf of their neighbors.”

Cahaly concluded: “Lastly we have noted that there will likely be a major influx of participation from registered voters who haven’t voted since 2006 or before. This mobilization is reminiscent to the Obama turnout of 2008. These voters’ primary motivation is the rejection of the establishment, just as the Obama ’08 voters who rejected the establishment of that time.” […] 

It may be easy to dismiss this poll.  But remember:  An obscure pollster called Harper emerged during the final week of the 2014 US Senate race to be THE ONLY ONE to predict a Tillis win over Hagan.