Sorting out Super Tuesday

cruz-trump-2016If you believe the drivebys, yesterday’s voting has already set up a general election battle between Hillary and The Donald.  But, judging from the delegate numbers and the exit poll findings, there is STILL a race going on.

On the Democrat side, it takes 2,383 delegates to win the nomination.  Hillary has 1034 to 408 for ol’ Bernie.  (Hillary’s number includes more super-delegates (486) — party insiders allowed to vote for ANYBODY – -than Bernie has in total.)   The Democrats have their system rigged to ensure they NEVER have another George McGovern.  

On the GOP side, it requires 1,237 total delegates to take the nomination.  Trump — post ST — has 316 delegates to 226 for Ted Cruz.  Marco Rubio is a distant third at 106.  Trump racked up a lot of states last night.  But our Founders established a system where the electoral votes settle everything.  Ask Al Gore how important it is to win more electoral votes than your opponent.   Ted Cruz is still within striking distance.

We’re getting to a point where dropping out becomes a major consideration for some candidates.  Polling out there shows the following: 

  • Rubio stands to gain the most from a Kasich drop-out.
  • Cruz stands to win the most from a Rubio drop-out.
  • Cruz, closely followed by Trump, benefits from a Carson drop-out.
  • Rubio stands to gain the most from a Cruz drop-out.

We’ve got less than two weeks before this circus crosses our borders.  

18 thoughts on “Sorting out Super Tuesday

  1. Trump is our best hope to defeat Hillary and we need to unite with him for victory.

    Let us come together as one GOP.

  2. Kasich and Carson aren’t getting out (Kasich maybe in 2 weeks after the 15th contests, which isn’t soon enough) . This benefits the elites as they will use this and Cruz and Rubios continued contestations to hopefully (from their perspective) win. It will likely mean Trump goes into the convention without enough delegates even if Carson handed him his. If we have that happen we lose in November whoever wins. Cruz and Rubio need to sit down and have it out asap. Maybe invite Kasich in. Lock the door and not let anyone out until they have a deal. Everybody works to defeat Trump. No disrespect to the Donald but if that’s what you want that’s the only way. Still if Trump wins and is nominee we better suck it up and get behind him, or we could end up with a 6-3 permanent split on SCOTUS

  3. It is a Toss up but I really think if Cruz dropped out most if his votes would go to Trump not Rubio

    If Rubio admitted his support of the gang of eight was a mistake it would help him but it probably is too late for him to do that

    Carson finally won something last night State House District 38 in Alaska it is a great moment for him right now to exit this race and endorse Cruz and hopefully Cruz would make him US Surgeon General

    1. “I really think if Cruz dropped out most if his votes would go to Trump not Rubio”

      I dont know – possible I guess… but I think a fairly decent number of them might chose as I will, and not move to either. I’d rather leave that race on my ballot blank than vote for either Trump or Rubio. *shrug*

      “If Rubio admitted his support of the gang of eight was a mistake it would help him but it probably is too late for him to do that”

      Rubio has been adamant that his “mistake” from all that was trying to get citizenship and legalization “first”, and via one big, all-encompassing bill. As far as I can tell, he’s not changed his views on illegal immigration – he’s still solidly pro-amnesty.

      1. I cannot support anyone pro-amnesty I do not understand how any republican can take that position.

        1. /agree Me either, which is why Rubio went on my “non-starter” list very early on.

          As this campaign has unfolded, Rubio’s continued to reinforce, to my mind, that that was an absolutely valid decision for me. 🙂

    2. According to the polling, in a one on one race, Cruz beats Trump by 16 points, but Rubio loses to Trump.

      1. Yep, and in the general, according to a couple of poll reports I heard just yesterday, Trump is the candidate Hillary is actually beating at this point.

        Which, I think makes intuitive sense. Hillary is horrible, sure… but for a lot of the general public, stand her up against Trump, and suddenly she looks like the actual adult in the room. He’s the one guy in the running that can make even Hillary look like a more sane and responsible option…

    1. So maybe he was waiting for a win and Super Tuesday gave that to him in State House District 38 in Alaska. He should fly directly there and take them all out to dinner

      I really like Carson I think he has a lot more to offer America but being president is not one of them

      I am still glad I got to see him speak before the SC primary but I wish he would have exited before Iowa or at least after

  4. The establishment seems to hate both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. They need to decide which one they want because whether their golden boy Rubio drops out or not will determine whether Cruz or Trump is the nominee. The reasons why Cruz can beat Trump one on one and Rubio cannot are spelled out very well in the following article from former RedState editor Erick Erickson’s new site, The Resurgent:

    http://www.theresurgent.com/deciding-with-your-head-not-your-heart/

    One of Rubio’s problems is that he is on the wrong side of two issues that are ”third rails” in GOP politics; amnesty for illegal aliens and gun rights. A very detailed examination of Rubio’s real history on immigration was compiled by Eagle Forum and is here:

    http://www.eagleforum.org/immigration/rubio-record.html

    Then there is the more recently opened aspect of Rubio’s record on guns. Cruz exposed it, Rubio denied it and claimed Cruz was lying, but in the end the videotape showed Rubio voting for a gun ban:

    http://www.beaufortobserver.net/Blog-3931.112112-10606.112112-Lost-Video-Shows-Marco-Rubio-Voting-For-Gun-Ban-in-1999.html

    Marco Rubio may crash and burn quickly all on his own, but if the establishment decided they did not want Trump and gave him a push, it would clear the field sooner. The establishment may fear Cruz more than Trump, because Cruz might actually win in November, and would not put up with the establishment’s business as usual.

  5. Wake up, people! Have you been reading the headlines?? The elites are in a panic and are going to shuffle out (loser) Romney to blast Trump (funny how he just never could do that to Obama) and super pacs are being set up by GOP elites like (another loser) Meg Whitman (please boycott all of these fools’ products whenever possible including Faux News and WSJ who shill for amnesty Rubio) to attack him and keep talking about a brokered convention. Regardless of what you may think of Trump, the ELITES ARE DETERMINED TO TAKE THE ELECTION AWAY FROM THE PEOPLE. Is that what YOU want?? Should these totalitarian-like endeavors not indicate something to you about what a threat he is to the establishment? So let’s see what happens with Cruz and Trump but, for the love of God, please get behind the one who eventually ends up the nominee. Otherwise, the ELITES win and AGAIN THE PEOPLE LOSE. Certainly for you Constitutional purists, this is NOT what you want.

    As an a side note, Chapel Hill Schools just instituted transgender bathrooms (and don’t tell me that it will never happen in your backyard). And, all Pat can do is sent out an angry press release to Cooper!? He is just as bad as that hack.

    1. “Regardless of what you may think of Trump, the ELITES ARE DETERMINED TO TAKE THE ELECTION AWAY FROM THE PEOPLE. ”

      I share that anger against those “elites”, but just because anger is justified, that doesnt turn bad choices like “Trump” into good decisions, either.

      I also dont think Trump represents any “threat” to the establishment’s gravy train. In fact I think it’s pretty evident they’d prefer him to Cruz, because Trump is someone they can work with and mitigate. The analogy I keep coming back to is that Trump will go up there and re-decorate – change the curtains, put up some new pictures, etc…. but Cruz is more likely and intent on ripping out the hot tub, knocking down some walls, and doing a full re-model. 🙂

      “So let’s see what happens with Cruz and Trump but, for the love of God, please get behind the one who eventually ends up the nominee.”

      I would love to vote against the Democrats, and I hope the GOP provides me with opportunity… but they’re going to have to do more than “I’m not Hillary”. Voting for Trump or Rubio still means “elites win” and “the people lose”…except then it would be with my own personal and direct participation, agreement, and support.

        1. It’s not being stubborn, nor do I demand some ideological purity… but I do disagree that Trump or Rubio sitting in the White House is “winning” anything.

          If the GOP wants my vote, it’s certainly up for grabs, but they dont own it – and they need to do a lot better than those clowns. 🙂

          If Democrats win in November… that’s the GOP’s fault for putting up lousy candidates.

          1. “If the GOP wants my vote….”

            The GOP only wants your vote if you vote for their handpicked candidate.

            I will not vote for any candidate who is handpicked by the GOP elite unless he or she is running against Hillary.

  6. And one more side note:

    Another toll road project run by Cintra has declared bankruptcy:

    bit.ly/1QsPg55

    “It’s really a reorganization as much as it is anything else,” said Robert Hinkle, the North Texas corporate affairs director for developer Cintra.

    Yeah, and getting robbed in an alley is a voluntary agreement to transfer funds.

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