Sorting out Super Tuesday

cruz-trump-2016If you believe the drivebys, yesterday’s voting has already set up a general election battle between Hillary and The Donald.  But, judging from the delegate numbers and the exit poll findings, there is STILL a race going on.

On the Democrat side, it takes 2,383 delegates to win the nomination.  Hillary has 1034 to 408 for ol’ Bernie.  (Hillary’s number includes more super-delegates (486) — party insiders allowed to vote for ANYBODY – -than Bernie has in total.)   The Democrats have their system rigged to ensure they NEVER have another George McGovern.  

On the GOP side, it requires 1,237 total delegates to take the nomination.  Trump — post ST — has 316 delegates to 226 for Ted Cruz.  Marco Rubio is a distant third at 106.  Trump racked up a lot of states last night.  But our Founders established a system where the electoral votes settle everything.  Ask Al Gore how important it is to win more electoral votes than your opponent.   Ted Cruz is still within striking distance.

We’re getting to a point where dropping out becomes a major consideration for some candidates.  Polling out there shows the following: 

  • Rubio stands to gain the most from a Kasich drop-out.
  • Cruz stands to win the most from a Rubio drop-out.
  • Cruz, closely followed by Trump, benefits from a Carson drop-out.
  • Rubio stands to gain the most from a Cruz drop-out.

We’ve got less than two weeks before this circus crosses our borders.