“Scary” lack of enthusiasm heading into November among GOP base voters
I am soooo fighting the urge to belt out the words “I TOLD YOU SO”.
This particular warning comes to us from those hardcore leftists at Americans For Prosperity:
[…] About 1 in 5 reliable Republican base voters are at risk this November, according to Nathan Nascimento, executive director at AFP Action. Those voters in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire and Michigan are either saying they may stay home or are weighing voting for Democrats, according to their data, which is based on polling and extensive efforts to engage targeted Republican voters by knocking on their doors. The voters are primarily worried about inflation and the economy.“This is a big chunk,” Nascimento said. “This is a scary number.” […]
Hmmm. Twenty percent of the Republican vote. *No big deal, huh*?
I hope you’re sitting down, because it doesn’t get better:
Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm that their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November’s midterm elections.A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump’s low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats.The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters — who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, according to an analysis done by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC that was founded by billionaire Charles Koch. This new issue with the base adds to the party’s more enduring problem of turning out less-frequent voters who support Trump but often skip midterm elections. […]
Here’s a Republican pollster adding another heaping dose of reality:
[…] Mitchell Brown, a Republican pollster at the firm Cygnal, said Democrats are as enthusiastic about voting as they were at the same time ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, when they swept back into power in the House. But Republicans are far less excited to vote at this point than they were then, posing an issue for the party.“It’s not that the Democrats are outperforming a topline number that we’d expect, it’s that Republicans are underperforming,” Brown said. [….]
Underperforming? Why do you think that might be?
Perhaps, are people finally fed up with being told one thing but getting treated to another? Promises of conservative reform but a reality featuring a slightly-watered down version of the same-old big government we’ve always been *treated* to? (Or, in most cases, no action whatsoever ???)This should not be mistaken as running into the embrace of the socialist D-crowd. It’s really about losing patience with the scam artists who have been playing you for a fool for the last sixteen years — and having no idea where to turn for a better option.
November is not going to be pretty for the GOP — at least in North Carolina. It will be easy to blame it on people like me and my website. But, in reality, there is not – and there has not been — any GOP leadership in the state. No one has a serious agenda and points the way for the rest of us to follow. No one is building a bench to take on the big government crowd. The name of the game is apparently *$hake-down-as-many-deep-pocketed-folks-as-you-can-for-as-much-as-you-can.*(I guess you can kind of count all these search warrants and these grand juries as *time spent cracking down on corruption.*)
I live in one of the most Republican counties in the state. Democrats are bouncing around here high on Red Bull. They’re excited and enthusiastic. Meanwhile, Raleigh-connected RINOs are in open warfare against conservatives. This is the kind of locale state Republicans should not have to worry about. But in this climate, they very well should.
Conservatism is the gospel that will save the day for the GOP. Not just preaching it, but practicing it as well. Sadly, it may take one more electoral beat-down to hammer that point home.
Don’t blame me, I voted for Brooke McGowan.
Elections have consequences! I think we may actually need proof of life that anyone is working on Hillsborough Street at the NCGOP office! Anderson Clayton and her potty mouth are making the national media rounds; Roy Cooper events are packed; they had 100’s at a “Where’s Whatley?” Rally in WNC; NCGOP has raised less than $700k; “the base” I think has finally had enough.
There is literally NO leadership from Simmons! None! After he decided to pay himself an unauthorized salary of $150k for over a year and is still getting paid – who knows that that amount really is – one would think he would do something. A press conference? A press release? Nope – the only effort – sell tickets to the midterms RNC.
November has the makings in NC of a bloodbath. Whatley loses. NC1 & NC11 are easily on the table for Dems to win. Sarah Stevens is in big trouble. And no one seems to have the faintest idea what the NCGOP plan is. Trump flying in will not save the day. Not with gas at $3.70 & another war. Not when many loyal R voters (this one included) will be skipping races on the ballot. And don’t give me the pick the lesser of 2 evils garbage. Whatley is Tillis 2.0. ?
100 days until voting starts and every NC Dem is running to center and the NCGOP is apparently in witness protection!
Primary voters had their chance. Don Brown and I made this exact case: the GOP cannot win without energizing its MAGA America First base. Our Senate campaigns both had support – I even dropped out and directed my supporters to Don – but the Establishment GOP lined up behind its candidate and set its dogs on us. Don and I just completed a “Fire Up the Base” tour. We travelled the state urging conservatives not to stay home but instead to back Whatley. We said a vote for Whatley is a vote to acquit Trump in a Senate impeachment trial. We meant it. Do not stay home and do not vote Libertarian. And do not blame us if Whatley doesn’t win. Incidentally, we never heard from Whatley or his campaign about our tour. You’re welcome, Mr. Chairman.
My sympathies and gratitude for your efforts. Trust me, we who have led county parties and won our counties for Trump in 2016 and 2020, particularly those of us who led “pivot” counties, know what a self-absorbed, credit-stealing ingrate for a nominee we have.
In North Carolina, liberal Senator Thom Tilli$ has made himself a millstone around the party’s neck who drives down voter enthusiasm of the GOP base. Voters are sick of the Tillis we have and do not want another one. Tillis keeps rubbing salt into voters wounds being highly public in attacking Republican positions like the SAVE America Act, and waffling on President Trump’s Attorney General nominee Todd Blanche.
For election purposes, the party badly needs to put some real distance between the GOP and its candidates on one hand and Tillis on the other. If Whatley won’t call Tillis out for his treachery, then Simmons needs to do so. If Tillis keeps on with his behavior and the GOP does nothing, then it will sink enthusiasm of our Republican base in this election even lower. Calling out Tillis, on the other hand, has the potential to help fire up the base for November.
We loyalists refuse to support those who abuse our time and treasure as their personal plunder. They forfeit our core beliefs in the platform, steal from us at the state convention and actually stole our votes at the state convention with the phone app debacle. Whately was in charge of all of it and is a Tillis clone. Senate is basically a tossup because both candidates represent the uniparty, not the people, and the people have had a belly full of it. How could a conservative have a worse representative then Tillis? Wait on it, they are both on the ballot. Another six years unless the winner dies in office, eh Lindsay? A no vote is the loudest statement a loyalist can make, not rewarding the individual responsible but unaccountable for past transgressions. We’ll hit the down ballot and show it wasn’t a mistake. Start planning now for 2034?
The thing is, many of us have been to state conventions over the last decade or so. We have endured Tillis. We have experienced the questionable behaviors, including unaccountable electronic voting. We have experienced the arrogance and total lack of respect toward grassroots officials and delegates. The truth is we don’t like Whatley any more than he likes us.
So, what will we do? Some of us will hold our nose one more time. Others will sit that race out. Personally, I’ll probably decide on election day. I’ll be there on election day, but I have to have reasons to support anyone with my vote.
Mr. smug restless leg syndrome guy could help himself by reaching out to us. We probably wouldn’t believe him, but it might give us something to hope for in weak moments. Heck, even fellow carpetbagger Tillis did that on occasion. I’m not seeing much of an effort from this dude. I’ve got lots of reasons not to vote for Whatley. Why does he think I should?
Tillis’ continuing demonstration of his hatred for GOP voters is a huge threat to voter enthusiasm among the voters we need to turn out in November. https://thefederalist.com/2026/07/30/cornyn-and-tillis-anti-blanche-jihad-epitomizes-the-gops-hatred-for-its-voters/
Our candidates need to do everything possible to disentangle themselves from Tillis.. So does the party.
One would naturally think 2026 to be a banner year for elections in North Carolina, what with the national democrat party falling victim to its internal struggle with the Democratic Socialists of America. Now that North Carolina democrats rank third among registrants, behind both Unaffiliateds and Republicans, one might conclude that conditions were near-optimal for GOP wins up and down the ballot this fall. Not so.
Persistent inflationary pressures, the unpopular conflict with Iran, market uncertainties, and constant media denigration of the Trump Presidency have effectively neutralized the advantages Republicans might have expected nationally as we close within 100 days of the election. Those problems are exacerbated in North Carolina by many additional unforced errors- percolating scandals within the NCGOP and NCGA, extremely poor GOP messaging, lack of issues-based promotion of conservative candidates, poor candidate development and competitiveness in some statewide races, and lackluster fundraising. Seems like we can’t get out of our own way.
GOP County and District Chairs should not count on the state GOP to be of much help this fall. The success of our congressional candidates will largely depend on local activism and commitment of resources. In particular, GOP-heavy Districts 1 and 11 are at serious risk of loss if their District and County leaders cannot muster strong get out the vote efforts and effective poll greeting at every precinct and early voting site.
There is an unfortunate rising vulnerability of losing ground in the state House and Senate as well. Some of that is attributable to lack of GOP enthusiasm, stemming largely from lack of effective leadership at senior levels. Loss of a Senate supermajority and further erosion of the House majority could well strengthen Governor Stein’s hand the last two years of his term. Moreover, another Supreme Court loss this fall would introduce serious risk of losing Constitutionally-sound, appellate jurisprudence following the 2028 election (when there will be three high court seats in contention).
We are already starting to see a serious slowdown in Republican registrations across the state; the same kind of party malaise that democrats have suffered the past several years. This is but one other indicator the GOP is in trouble this fall. Until and unless the NCGOP makes a quantum leap in messaging, promoting our candidates, and raising serious capital for competitive races, we should not expect across-the-board successes in statewide races.
On the bright side, a lot of local races around the state are looking very promising. Many county GOP’s remain competitive and enthusiastic in promoting our Superior & District Court Judge, County Commissioner, and School Board candidates, among other local races. I see lots of strong GOP candidates across the state competing for these positions. Perhaps a good number of them will emerge to strengthen our “conservative bench” for 2028 and beyond.