New polling for NC: Trump +2 (stein +10)

The first polling since the publication of CNN’s X-rated blockbuster allegations against Mark Robinson is out.  It’s about what you might expect.  The NY Times / Siena poll shows Josh Stein leading Robinson 47-37 percent. (The poll was carried out September 17-21.  The story broke on Sept. 18.)

The last, most recent NYT / Siena poll (in August) produced a result of 49-39 percent in favor of Stein. The numbers shifted, but the margin stayed the same.

The cross-tabs for this latest poll offer some interesting tidbits.  For instance, there is a regional breakdown for where the candidates’ support comes from.  Robinson leads in the Charlotte suburbs (49-35) and western North Carolina (46-31).  Stein and Robinson are basically even (43-41) in the east.  Stein holds big leads in Mecklenburg County (50-35), the Piedmont-Triad (55-27), and in Raleigh-Durham (70-22).

Here’s how things have shaken out overall thus far (h/t RealClearPolling):


 


According to RealClear, that’s an average result of 48.8 to 39.3 percenta victory margin of 9.5 percent for Stein. As you can see, it includes all major polling going back to November. 

You have to go back to late May-early June to find polling that shows a Robinson lead.

Let’s put this in perspective.  Here are the final results of the last two races for governor in North Carolina:

The other race everyone is watching is — of course — the BIG ONE for that big White House on Pennsylvania Avenue in DC.  The same NYT / Siena poll gives Donald Trump a 2-point lead in North Carolina.  Here’s some NC polling history for the presidential race:


 


The most recent, last poll from NYT / Siena (in August) had Harris leading Trump by 2 in North Carolina. 

To put the presidential numbers in perspective, here’s what happened in the last two big election years in North Carolina: