New polling for NC: Trump +2 (stein +10)

The first polling since the publication of CNN’s X-rated blockbuster allegations against Mark Robinson is out.  It’s about what you might expect.  The NY Times / Siena poll shows Josh Stein leading Robinson 47-37 percent. (The poll was carried out September 17-21.  The story broke on Sept. 18.)

The last, most recent NYT / Siena poll (in August) produced a result of 49-39 percent in favor of Stein. The numbers shifted, but the margin stayed the same.

The cross-tabs for this latest poll offer some interesting tidbits.  For instance, there is a regional breakdown for where the candidates’ support comes from.  Robinson leads in the Charlotte suburbs (49-35) and western North Carolina (46-31).  Stein and Robinson are basically even (43-41) in the east.  Stein holds big leads in Mecklenburg County (50-35), the Piedmont-Triad (55-27), and in Raleigh-Durham (70-22).

Here’s how things have shaken out overall thus far (h/t RealClearPolling):


 


According to RealClear, that’s an average result of 48.8 to 39.3 percent — a victory margin of 9.5 percent for Stein. As you can see, it includes all major polling going back to November. 

You have to go back to late May-early June to find polling that shows a Robinson lead.

Let’s put this in perspective.  Here are the final results of the last two races for governor in North Carolina:

The other race everyone is watching is — of course — the BIG ONE for that big White House on Pennsylvania Avenue in DC.  The same NYT / Siena poll gives Donald Trump a 2-point lead in North Carolina.  Here’s some NC polling history for the presidential race:


 


The most recent, last poll from NYT / Siena (in August) had Harris leading Trump by 2 in North Carolina. 

To put the presidential numbers in perspective, here’s what happened in the last two big election years in North Carolina: