#ncsen: YouGov says Hagan 44, Tillis, 41

voteThis survey of 1727 North Carolina voters was conducted between Oct. 25 and Oct. 31.  Three percent favored “someone else” while 12 percent were undecided.

Let’s look at a breakdown of the age demographic.  With voters 18-29, Hagan leads 49-33.  Her lead with voters from age 30 to age 44 is much smaller at 46-38.  Tillis leads 43-42 with voters 45-64,  He leads 46-41 with voters 65 and older.

Hagan is the favorite of women by 49-36.  Tillis leads with men by 47-38.  Tillis leads the white vote by a margin of 53-31.  Kay Hagan has a comfortable 88-2 margin with black voters.

Early voting ended today.  Tuesday is election day.

14 thoughts on “#ncsen: YouGov says Hagan 44, Tillis, 41

  1. So these numbers basically say that Kay Hagan has 50% of the vote from among people who have made up their minds, with Thom and the minor candidates taking the other half.

    Even if Hagan only gets 40% of the remaining undecided vote, she wins.

  2. PS. Just sent ya 30 bucks for the tip jar. I figure it’s money I used to spend on county and district convention fees, and worth it to re-direct to this news source instead. I’m sure the post-election spleen-venting by everyone will be very interesting.

  3. The New York Times puts Kay’s chance of being reelected at 73%.

    Probably will not be a bad thing at all. Having one Republican Senator and one Democrat means North Carolina will always have friends. And I think having one of each party represents North Carolina’s moderate shift.

    North Carolina will always be a Southern State to me but it is evident that we are moving Northwards. We have had a great influx of people and they have brought Northeast values to NC. So be it.

    1. What it means coop is that we will have a documented Democrat Senator in Hagan and an undocumented Democrat in Burr. There will be no conservative representation under any circumstances after Tuesday’s outcome.

      1. It is what the people of North Carolina want. Both were elected by an informed electorate. If there is no conservative representation then it is because there are not enough conservative voters. Who can argue with that?

        1. A campaign in which no one really raises conservative issues does give an indication of the electorate’s position on those issues. Tillis’ campaign could have been run by the Marx Brothers. It has been a pathetic, incompetent joke.
          That is why we are about to lose. The conservative voters are not motivated to vote by an undocumented Democrat running against a documented Democrat. That is why so many more Democrats coming out in early voting.

          The incompetent twit Tillis had the issues that could have won the election, if he could have gotten around his own record, but he failed to use them.

  4. Final early voting stats:

    Female – 651,427 = 54.31%
    Male – 547,983 = 45.68%

    DEM – 564,353 = 47.05%
    GOP – 385,651 = 32.15%
    LIB – 2,025 = 0.16%
    UNA – 247,381 = 20.62%

    White – 861,823 = 71.85%
    Black – 295,029 = 24.59%
    Other – 42,558 = 3.54%

    Slice it up however you like. But it pretty well fits with the narrative we’ve had all week.

  5. NC GOP clearly has no ground game based on numbers above. The reason is RINO control of the state party and governor’s office.

    1. I blame it on the weather. It never got cold so all the country club Republicans were playing golf and not engaged in the GOP ground game.

      Had it got cold enough to drive the country club Republicans off the golf course it might have made a difference.

      Give a RINO a golf club, a cigar and a thick cheeseburger and he will never leave the golf course.

      The Democrats were working the Moral Mo

      1. The Democrats were working the Moral Monday angle all across the state while the RINO’s were playing golf.

        1. In reality they were working the Blueprint plan. Moron Monday was just one of the public fronts for Blueprint. Blueprint should have been countered in its early stages but the GOP leadership was asleep at the switch. It still could have been largely negated, if the GOP did not play into their hands and stupidly nominate a legislator for US Senate.

  6. Hagan made the race about the extreme agenda of the NC Legislature rather than a referendum on her support of Obama.

    The NC Dems outsmarted the Republicans yet again but the rest of the country apparently was not fooled.

    Further proof that NC is going blue.

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