Hagan 44, Tillis 44, Haugh 7, Undecided 5. The poll, conducted by Glen Bolger at Public Opinion Strategies, was conducted October 26-27 among 600 likely voters. It has a margin of error of +-4 percent. (I am going to chalk the document date of 10/22 up to being a typo.)
Here is Bolger’s take:
[…] Key Findings
1. This Senate race has been tight all of October, and is now tied.
It does not get any closer than this – Thom Tillis and Kay Hagan are tied at 44% each,
with 7% backing Libertarian Sean Haugh and 5% undecided.
Each of the first three weekly surveys in the North Carolina Senate race had Hagan with
a statistically insignificant two point lead. Tillis has caught up.
2. While neither candidate is beloved by North Carolina voters, Tillis has lower
unfavorables than Hagan does.
Kay Hagan has a 44% favorable/48% unfavorable image. Thom Tillis has a 39%
favorable/44% unfavorable image. Neither of those represent stellar numbers.
3. The political environment remains problematic for Kay Hagan.
Barack Obama’s underwhelming 43% approve/55% disapprove job rating is a big hurdle
facing Hagan. Among undecideds, Obama’s rating is just 25% approve/54% disapprove […]
We agree with Bolger’s bottom line: the race is a coin flip at this point. Whoever has their act together on the ground will carry the day (and the next six years).