#ncsen: Elon says Hagan 45, Tillis 41

thomkayThe pollster notes that Hagan’s lead grows to SEVEN PERCENT when you look simply at ‘registered voters.’ (The numbers above are from likely voters.)  This poll was conducted October 21-25 among 1084 North Carolina residents with a margin of error between +-2.98 to +-3.74.

The poll cites some interesting data on ‘undecided voters’:

In a close race undecided voters can help determine an election, but the size of the “undecided”
voting population is often difficult to determine. “True” undecided respondents are, on average,
less likely to actually turnout to vote in a midterm election. Of the 6.6% of likely voters who
said they were undecided, most were independents (52%), and most were moderates (35%).
Republicans were less likely to say they were undecided (13%) than Democrats (28%). Very
few liberals said they were undecided (8.5% of undecided respondents). 34 percent of those who
stated they were undecided were black, compared to 61% white.

Here’s what they found on options OTHER THAN Hagan or Tillis:

Sean Haugh will be on the ballot representing the Libertarian Party in the race for U.S. Senate.
Our survey item did not mention him by name, nor did we mention any of the certified write-in
candidates. Instead, we offered respondents the option of choosing “someone else”.
Approximately 6% of likely voters made this choice. These respondents were then asked a
follow-up question: “who is that someone else?” Only 6 likely voters mentioned the Libertarian
Party or Sean Haugh’s name (less than 1% of all likely voters). Not a single Republican likely
voter mentioned Haugh or the Libertarian Party. Twenty respondents mentioned some other person
or party while 40 likely voters said they were unsure or undecided. Most likely voters
who said they were going to vote for someone else identified as Independents. 

On ObamaCare:

The Elon Poll found almost half of likely voters (48%) think the ACA will make the healthcare
situation in North Carolina worse. Only 35% believe Obamacare will make the healthcare system
better, while 11% think it probably won’t make much of a difference. These numbers almost
mirror the Elon Poll’s findings last month (49% worse, 35% better, 11% no difference). Likely
voters who are optimistic about the ACA’s impact on healthcare tend to represent the president’s
strongest supporters and are much more likely to vote for Hagan as well (88%) while only 3%
plan to vote for Tillis.

After reading THAT, explain to me the logic behind Tillis’s 180 on Medicaid expansion. 

The survey found that 90 percent of the people who approve of Obama plan to vote for Hagan.  Only
75 percent of Obama disapprovers plan to cast votes for Tillis.

Pat McCrory’s approval -disapproval stands at 37-47.  (Obama is at 42-50.)  Kay Hagan gets 15 percent
support from people who approve of McCrory’s performance as governor.

We’ve seen a lot of polls.  Which ones do you trust?  In the 2010 Burr-Marshall race, PPP came closest
to predicting the final result. In 2008, CNN/Time was right on the money picking the final margin, with PPP
being the next closest.

CNN’s last public poll in this race, released Sept. 28, had Hagan over Tillis 46-43.  PPP’s last public poll on
this race, released Oct. 20, also had Hagan over Tillis 46-43.