#ncsen: Elon says Hagan 45, Tillis 41
The pollster notes that Hagan’s lead grows to SEVEN PERCENT when you look simply at ‘registered voters.’ (The numbers above are from likely voters.) This poll was conducted October 21-25 among 1084 North Carolina residents with a margin of error between +-2.98 to +-3.74.
The poll cites some interesting data on ‘undecided voters’:
In a close race undecided voters can help determine an election, but the size of the “undecided”
voting population is often difficult to determine. “True” undecided respondents are, on average,
less likely to actually turnout to vote in a midterm election. Of the 6.6% of likely voters who
said they were undecided, most were independents (52%), and most were moderates (35%).
Republicans were less likely to say they were undecided (13%) than Democrats (28%). Very
few liberals said they were undecided (8.5% of undecided respondents). 34 percent of those who
stated they were undecided were black, compared to 61% white.
Here’s what they found on options OTHER THAN Hagan or Tillis:
Sean Haugh will be on the ballot representing the Libertarian Party in the race for U.S. Senate.
Our survey item did not mention him by name, nor did we mention any of the certified write-in
candidates. Instead, we offered respondents the option of choosing “someone else”.
Approximately 6% of likely voters made this choice. These respondents were then asked a
follow-up question: “who is that someone else?” Only 6 likely voters mentioned the Libertarian
Party or Sean Haugh’s name (less than 1% of all likely voters). Not a single Republican likely
voter mentioned Haugh or the Libertarian Party. Twenty respondents mentioned some other person
or party while 40 likely voters said they were unsure or undecided. Most likely voters
who said they were going to vote for someone else identified as Independents.
On ObamaCare:
The Elon Poll found almost half of likely voters (48%) think the ACA will make the healthcare
situation in North Carolina worse. Only 35% believe Obamacare will make the healthcare system
better, while 11% think it probably won’t make much of a difference. These numbers almost
mirror the Elon Poll’s findings last month (49% worse, 35% better, 11% no difference). Likely
voters who are optimistic about the ACA’s impact on healthcare tend to represent the president’s
strongest supporters and are much more likely to vote for Hagan as well (88%) while only 3%
plan to vote for Tillis.
After reading THAT, explain to me the logic behind Tillis’s 180 on Medicaid expansion.
The survey found that 90 percent of the people who approve of Obama plan to vote for Hagan. Only
75 percent of Obama disapprovers plan to cast votes for Tillis.
Pat McCrory’s approval -disapproval stands at 37-47. (Obama is at 42-50.) Kay Hagan gets 15 percent
support from people who approve of McCrory’s performance as governor.
We’ve seen a lot of polls. Which ones do you trust? In the 2010 Burr-Marshall race, PPP came closest
to predicting the final result. In 2008, CNN/Time was right on the money picking the final margin, with PPP
being the next closest.
CNN’s last public poll in this race, released Sept. 28, had Hagan over Tillis 46-43. PPP’s last public poll on
this race, released Oct. 20, also had Hagan over Tillis 46-43.
Man there are a lot of polls out there…
“Undecided” seems like a really polite way to say, “I’ve no clue about any of those people or the issues they’re all arguing about – I just answered my phone”. 🙂
When I went to early voting, it struck me how non-interesting and “in the weeds” the overall ballot is this year. If someone’s “undecided” the last week of October, I cant imagine them going out to vote this year, unless they’re personally interested in one of the judicial/local races.
“”After reading THAT, explain to me the logic behind Tillis’s 180 on Medicaid expansion””.
– My first guess is probably… the people who are “undecided” or otherwise “get-able” for Tillis – they dont consider “Obamacare” and “Medicaid expansion” to be equivalent, but see them as separate things. I also doubt they know much about what it actually entails, the costs, and who ultimately would pay for it. They just hear “help poor people” and think no further.
It makes sense that Tillis, in a race now this close, would move to remove any barriers someone in that low-info group might have to “not” vote for him – It’s not like he hurts himself with any other voter group, any more than he already has. As an establishment, “not Hagan, not Obama, not Reid” candidate, for most of the people voting for him his actual positions are ultimately unimportant.
I think the election results will not mirror the polls. When the GOP is down a few % in turnout, and the Dems up a few %, that turns into many thousands of bodies. That’s hard to change over a weekend using radio and TV. You need a strong ground game to rouse people to go vote.. If the Chicago machine is working this election like it did in 2012, there may be some eye openers when it’s over.
Polls of likely voters are the most accurate, followed by registered voters, followed by all adults.
Off year elections are won or lost by turning out your base. Hagan has run an effective campaign to motivate her base, while Tillis has run a campaign to turn off his base. To a GOP activist that Medicaid statement was just repulsive, as was cavorting with McCain and Graham. The issues were there for Tillis to win, if he could somehow get around his own record, but he refused to use them.
I’m going to write in Raphael.
Was making calls the past several days for a candidate I support. I’m finding the Republican base very unmotivated. Tillis is a major drag on the entire ticket. I am really dismayed at how many Republicans dislike him, even resent him. This is far worse than the disastrous 1986 Broyhill senate campaign which was the worst we had seen up till now. Many Republicans don’t even know where Tillis stands on the issues, even same-sex marriage! Heads in Raleigh and Washington need to roll over this disaster.