#NCSEN: ANOTHER poll (this time from conservatives) showing slim Hagan lead
Human Events, a longtime flagship publication of the American conservative movement, has partnered with Gravis Marketing to take the political temperature in The Tar Heel State. They conducted a poll of 1,380 registered voters between July 22 and July 27. (There’s a 3 percent margin of error. )
The survey finds Democrat Kay Hagan leading Republican Thom Tillis in the US Senate race by a margin of 44 percent to 41 percent, with 15 percent “undecided.” You have to wonder how credible this poll is — given that a Libertarian will be on the ballot, and that there will be three write-in candidates.
In late June, left-leaning Public Policy Polling had the race at Hagan (D) 39, Tillis (R) 34, Haugh (L) 11. About the same time, the right-leaning Civitas Institute had a poll on the race showing Hagan 42, Tillis, 36 and Haugh 9.
The Human Events survey also polled voters on the 2016 governor’s race. They found attorney general Roy Cooper (D) leading incumbent governor Pat McCrory 46-44 with 10 percent undecided.
I find it hard to believe that Kay Hagan would not be reelected. Tillis has nothing to run on that Hagan does not beat him. Tillis has been outed as a Rino who is further to the left than Hagan on many issues.
What can Tillis run on that Hagan does not beat him?
Tillis ally, the Republican establishment in Washington, is being beat time and time again by Obama. The GOP establishment is an embarrassment and I feel the voters will take it out on Rove’s shill, Tillis.
The GOP is in a mess.
There are few if any issues where Tillis is to the left of Hagan. The problem is that on so many issues it is hard to tell them apart. You are right that he is poorly positioned on many issues to give voters a compelling reason to vote for him, and he has been very slow on the uptake to try to create any.
The polls at primary time showed Tillis to be one of the weakest general election candidates in the GOP primary field, but unfortunately, we had millions of dollars in outside interference from the corrupt crony capitalists at the US Chamber of Commerce and from aspiring party boss Karl Rove and his organization. That meddling stuck us with Tillis as a nominee, and may end up sticking us with Hagan for another term.
In 2016, I hope we will have party leadership that will go very public about keeping these outside meddlers out of our primaries.
North Carolina voters should show the Republican establishment that Rove & Company should have stayed out of the GOP primary.
The only way to teach Rove a lesson is to send Kay Hagan back to the Senate.
That will send a powerful message that voters in NC know the real truth.
Voting for Kay Hagan does not send that message and is a dumb strategy. If one wants to send a message, either voting in the other races and skipping US Senate or voting for a write in for the Senate race would send a message.Voting for Kay Hagan does not because there is nothing to show why you crossed over. Hagan’s people would argue it was because you liked her stinky liberal record.
I think it is smart to wait until much closer to the election to make a final decision. You never know, but Tillis may do something that surprises us all. I know the odds are not real great of that, but who knows, it could happen.
This poll proves that the more conservatives find out about Tillis the better Kay Hagan looks. Our one consolation will be reelecting a Senator who has seniority and experience rather than a Rove acolyte.