NC-09: Oh, look. A poll …


These things just seem to pop up out of nowhere:


A new poll released this week shows the Republican candidate for North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District special election with an early lead over his Democrat challenger.


Of the 350 respondents, all of which live in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, 46 percent stated they would vote for Republican Dan Bishop if the election were held today, while 42 percent of voters said they would support Democrat Dan McCready. Ten percent of voters remain undecided.[…]

Translation?  The race is a wash.  Ten percent Undecided (and 5.2% margin of error)  makes that 4 percent lead a moot point.   But the Bishop campaign can  take heart in the fact that their guy has a larger number next to his name than Ginger McCready does.





[…] In the eight-question survey, which was conducted from May 21-24, voters were asked if they would rather have a Democrat or Republican represent them in Congress. More than half, 52 percent, said they would like a Republican to represent them, while only 41 percent said they prefer a Democrat.


Also highlighted in the poll was the 9th District’s approval of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-five percent of voters said they approve of the president’s performance, while a mere 33 percent stated they disapprove.


In the 2016 Presidential election, North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District favored President Trump 54-43 percent.


The JMC Analytics and Polling survey was conducted from May 21-24. It has a margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, of 5.2%.[…]

That’s a HUGE margin of error.  Not exactly a confidence-instiller in the results.  (And a 350 person sample size?  I dunno.)




[…] The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 74-18% white/black (9% “other”), while the party registration of respondents was 43-34% Democratic/Republican (23% Independents). The geographic breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 10% from Cumberland County, 31% from Mecklenburg County, 14% from Robeson County, 18% from the other rural counties, and 27% from Union County.[…]


Granted,  we’re no fans of G.I. Ginger and his solar panels.  But there’s honestly not a whole lot of news in this poll.  It’s a GOP-leaning district.  But the drive-by media hasn’t yet geared up their McCready smooch-fest.  (You’re about to hear more about trannies in public potties than you EVER hoped to.)




It’s still early.  Dan Bishop is a smart guy and a good candidate.   If he can tell his story and get the truth out there about his ginger foe, while fending off  the withering cover fire from the drive-bys, he ought to be fine.



It’s a farce that the boy wonder and his team of Hillary Clinton-supplied attorneys got a second stab at this.   Dan Bishop will be a head-and-shoulders improvement above the abysmal, appalling Robert Pittenger.



The sooner Team Bishop sends G.I. Ginger back to mooching off the government with his solar panel scam, the better.


4 thoughts on “NC-09: Oh, look. A poll …

  1. Is this a robocall because I think that’s all that JMC does? If so, it doesn’t include the majority of voters on cellphones.

    The sample size is fine if it is random and the voters are screened. We’re in the field last week and next week for our PAC clients. The race is tight but Bishop is definitely underperforming and it’s worst on the East End. We had McCready up four over Harris and five over Pittenger in December while the GOP held a generic ballot lead. We’ll be releasing that data late Thursday night or early Friday morning, unless the people paying for it want us wss up to hold it back.

  2. The sample seems to be highly weighted to demorats in what is a GOP leaning district. Likely they are gaming the system to keep the McCready guy in the hunt. Typical polling nonsense where they are sampling to get to a result they want rather than the real result out there.

    1. All in how they Define and Distribute their Tallies. And you have the 3 categories of voters (Rep, Dem, Ind).

      Then BLUR things, with additional Stats: Pres. Approval, Demographics, and Geographics(?).

      Also, the total Population for that Sample of 350 needs to be established. Taking the Sq Rt of 350 is approx 18.7, so….

      MY Confidence Level in this “Report” is somewhere between “Unsubstantiated” and “Gibberish”.

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