Veteran DC-based political analyst Stuart Rothenberg has singled out three congressmen from North Carolina as part of his ‘Dangerous Dozen’ list of incumbents most likely to go down to defeat in 2012:
… Larry Kissell (D-N.C.). Kissell finds himself in a redrawn district that moves north into Republican-rich Davidson and Rowan counties and out of Mecklenburg County. The political ramifications of the change are nothing short of dramatic, with what once was a 55 percent President Barack Obama district now becoming a 57 percent Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) district. Kissell, not known for his strong fundraising, would need a miracle to hold the seat. …
…Heath Shuler (D-N.C.). Shuler, a moderate Democrat, has always walked something of a fine line in this schizophrenic district. The Democratic vote is centered in Asheville, a city that one GOP consultant calls “the Berkeley of the East,” but most of the district’s general election voters are moderate to conservative. Shuler’s new district loses many Asheville voters, transforming it from a 52 percent McCain district to more than a 58 percent McCain district. He’s received the votes of Republicans before, but he’ll need even more of them now.
…Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.). The moderate McIntyre’s problems are almost identical to Shuler’s. He won in 2010 in a district that gave McCain 52 percent of the vote two years earlier, while his new district gave McCain 57 percent. With Obama less popular this time, McIntyre faces a tough climb.