Internal polling: Tillis losing to DEM by NINE, generic GOPer outperforming Tillis vs. Cooper
Ah, so it WAS after all about more than just spending more time with Susie and the kids. 
We found this little nugget buried at the end of a WRAL / CNN co-swoon over Michael Whatley:
[…] The NRSC is a leading Washington, D.C., group that helps elect Republicans to the U.S. Senate. Numerous internal polls of the race showed Tillis down at least 9 points in hypothetical head-to-head races against Democrats, according to a Republican operative with direct knowledge of the polls.Those same polls also showed a generic Republican outperforming Tillis against Cooper. […]
Notice that it doesn’t say the generic Republican beats Cooper. It says he or she (whoever they may be) out-performs Tillis against Cooper. *Losing by six instead of nine?*
In North Carolina, Republican US Senate candidates poll numbers are always behind and then on election day they pull it out. Ask Erskine Bowles , Harvey Gantt , Cheri Beasley etc. Tillis was toast and everyone knew it. Then the President trashed him and it was over for him. The Cooper record will be an issue and I predict Whatley pulls it out in end. Of course the Dems and a complicit media are just giddy Cooper is their candidate , and rightly so , but a few giddy politicos doesn’t win the election There is a history of this happening.
When you see the word “internal” that means the polling is done for the benefit of a party involved in the race. Usually one of the campaigns. In this case, it was done by the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is the campaign arm of the US Senate Republican Caucus. So. it was Republicans who did these polls. Republicans conducted polls and found Tillis losing badly to several different Democrats. They also did polls finding a generic Republican doing better against Cooper than Tillis. This is not like those other polling situations you are talking about. Those polls are done by media organizations. Internal polls help campaigns see how they are doing. They usually don’t get leaked out.
What’s funny? The new horse they’re riding, Whatley, is Thom Tillis’s brother from another mother. They are political soul-mates. Tillis has quietly aided Whatley’s rise in the ranks. This is like giving your car a new paint job and telling people you got a new car.
Aux Contraire — Fund raising ability will be a big factor if the GOP is to retain this seat, which is where Whatley comes out looking pretty good. He will be quite competitive against Cooper moneywise, whereas the other GOP candidates hadn’t a prayer. But, as you point out, Tillis was in the tank no matter whether he outspent Cooper (not likely) or not. Tillis has managed to irritate or outrage a whole lot of people, including many Republican voters, some who would have voted for Cooper, others who would have sat out, because of their intense dislike of Tillis! Not the medicine I would prescribe, but for some, that is what they would have done. So glad Tillis is gone and very hopeful Whatley can pull this off. . . and behave himself once in the Senate!
Fundraising, huh? There will be a lot of cash poured into this race from out-of-state. Whatley is nothing special when it comes to fundraising.. He and his friends at the NCGOP tried to claim he was. But most of the money in the state party’s bank account has been *washed* funds from the Republican caucuses on Jones Street and the RNC in DC.
Nobody, except diehard political junkies, knows who Michael Whatley is. He is the weakest candidate we’ve had since Elizabeth Dole. But at least she had a resume. There are a lot of holes in Whatley’s work history. Most of what we do know is paid political hack jobs and lobbying (for things like solar subsidies).
People will give money for the sake of *saving the seat.*. But to win you need something to sell.
Behaving himself in the senate? People don’t change. What you see is what you get. Tillis didnt change his ways from his Raleigh days.