Fifteen points ???? (Holy %$@& !!!)

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Mark Robinson lost the 2024 gubernatorial race by 14.6 percentage points.  Harper Polling just released a poll on the 2026 US Senate race  — paid for by the chronic NCGOP apologists at  Raleigh’s John Locke — showing Michael Whatley losing by 15.1 percentage points.  We still have about a month until early voting starts. 

Elizabeth Dole currently holds the record for receiving the worst electoral beatdown for a NCGOP candidate in a US Senate race in the last 50 years.  She lost by 8.5 percent to Kay Hagan in 2008.

Harper’s survey of 608 likely voters, conducted 9/13 to 9/15,  shows Roy Cooper with 49.2 percent to Mike Whatley‘s 34.1 percent.  

This is not Harper’s first survey of this race.  It’s interesting to see how the numbers for the two major party candidates has changed since March of this year:

 

It’s also interesting to see what Harper found on the questions of name ID and candidate likability. (NO = no opinion, NHO = never heard of.)

Nearly one-third of respondents (31.6%) either had no opinion or never heard of Michael Whatley.  After more than a year of campaigning.  That’s a bigger number than his favorability rating. 

Given the events Wednesday in Gastonia, let’s look at what the survey found about the effect of a Trump endorsement in the Senate race.

There are also some judicial races on the ballot.  Here’s what the survey found on the race for Supreme Court justice:

Let’s hope these numbers and margins are not trickling down to the GOP’s other judicial candidates.

Before you get depressed and start thinking North Carolina has gone leftist on you, check out the numbers on the three constitutional amendments:

 

People aren’t giving up on limited government and conservatism. Democrats are campaigning full-bore against those three amendments.

Harper’s previous surveys found that Cooper’s support is mostly from people voting FOR Cooper, while Whatley’s is mainly from people voting AGAINST Cooper.  

These numbers tend to communicate that the GOP is struggling to (1) sell their Senate nominee to the voters, and (2) convince voters they are serious about limited government.

There’s a real danger that the GOP Senate nominee’s performance could drag down candidates all along the GOP ticket.  The road to victory looks tough for Whatley.  But there are plenty of other folks out there to vote for.  The top of the ticket may be lost, but there are plenty of others who can be saved.  Go Vote.