A sobering look at GOTV, turnout in campaign 2026
It’s been pretty interesting following campaign 2026 while having access to commentary and analysis (on-background, of course) from some veteran Tar Heel State political pros. Everyone in that professional political community is keeping a close eye on the turnout numbers from the state’s Early Voting Period (which started on October 15 and ends October 31).
There’s a common belief in North Carolina politics. It says Republicans hold back and show up in much bigger numbers on Election Day, so Democrats’ early-vote leads will melt away on the big day. Let’s check that against the actual numbers from the State Board of Elections, going back to 2018.
Statewide first.
- 2018: 51% of Republicans voted early or by mail, and 49% voted on Election Day. That’s 626,000 early versus 603,000 on Election Day.
- 2022: 52% early and 48% on Election Day. That’s 682,000 early versus 621,000 on Election Day.
- 2020 and 2024, the presidential years: about 80% voted early, and only about 20% waited for Election Day.
In none of those four elections did a majority of North Carolina Republicans vote on Election Day. In the midterms, it was close to an even split, with early voting slightly ahead. In presidential years, it wasn’t close at all.
Now the ten GOP-held congressional districts plus District 1. Let’s look at the averages across those eleven districts:
- 2018: about 52% early.
- 2022: about 53% early.
- 2020: about 80% early.
- 2024: about 80% early.
The pattern is the same from the mountains to the coast. Midterms split roughly down the middle, and presidential years are heavily early.
Now for a few standouts.
- Most Election Day voting: The 1st congressional District has the biggest Election Day share historically, about 37% on average across the four elections. Even there, Election Day only edged out early voting in the midterms, at 52% in 2018 and 51% in 2022. In the presidential years, more than three-quarters voted early.
- Least Election Day voting: The 7th congressional District held by David Rouzer (R) in the southeast. Only about 31% of Republicans there vote on Election Day on average. In the 2018 and 2022 midterms, 56% of them voted early.
The takeaway: The idea that Republicans in North Carolina save their votes for Election Day doesn’t hold up. In midterms, roughly half have already voted before Election Day. In presidential years, it’s about four out of five.
That matters right now. Republican early voting this year is only up a few percent over 2022. If Republicans vote early at the same rate they did in the last midterm, there isn’t a large hidden Republican Election Day vote waiting to close the gap.
North Carolina has now cast 1,583,182 early ballots. That’s 36% more than 2022 at the same point.
- Democrats: 658,507, up 44% from 2022
- Unaffiliated voters: 547,351, up 59% from 2022
- Republicans: 373,431, up just 4% from 2022
- Republicans trail Democrats by 285,076 ballots. At this point in 2022 that gap was 98,322. In 2024, Republicans were actually ahead by 24,100.
Let’s run a what-if on the early vote so far, using everything cast through Sunday.
***** Remember… there are big caveats:
- This counts party registration, not actual votes. Some Democrats vote Republican and some Republicans vote Democrat.
- Election Day is still ahead. In midterm years, about half of Republican voters have traditionally waited until Election Day.
- Republican Early Vote numbers have risen steadily in the past few days and history shows the closer the election, those numbers will most likely rise. However, the increases have been modest and Democrats and Unaffiliated voters continue to outpace Republicans.
The following analysis of voter turnout is based on these assumptions:
- Every Democrat who has voted through Sunday night votes for the Democratic candidate.
- Every Republican who has voted through Sunday night votes for the Republican candidate.
- Unaffiliated voters who have voted through Sunday night break 60–40 for the Republican.
That’s a generous assumption for Republicans. Again, this is not a prediction. (Don’t call Kalshi just yet.) This analysis is based on the voting totals through Sunday night plus the three bullet points above.
Here’s what it shows in the 1st congressional District and the ten Republican-held districts.
Comfortable Democratic leads:
- 1st District: Don Davis leads Laurie Buckhout by about 14,800.
- 3rd District: Raymond Smith Jr. leads Congressman Greg Murphy by about 12,200, 57 to 43 percent.
- 13th District: Paul Barringer leads Brad Knott by about 6,100.
Closer races:
- 11th: Jamie Ager leads Jennifer Balkcom by about 4,600.
- 9th: Richard Ojeda leads Richard Hudson by about 3,400.
- 7th: Kimberly Hardy leads David Rouzer by about 1,600.
- 14th: LaKesha Womack leads Tim Moore by about 1,400.
Essentially tied:
- 5th: Chuck Hubbard leads Virginia Foxx by under 900 votes.
- 8th: Colby Watson leads Mark Harris by fewer than 400.
Republicans ahead:
- 10th: Pat Harrigan leads Ashley Bell by about 3,000.
- 6th: Addison McDowell leads Cyril Jefferson by about 1,400.
Bottom line: Even with unaffiliated voters breaking 60–40 Republican, Democrats lead the early vote in 8 of the 10 Republican-held districts in this scenario. But remember the caveats listed earlier and also that these numbers show where things stand on paper today, not how these races will end.
The study’s producers want to emphasize the point that early voting is very. very, very crucial this year — as is turnout. The GOP does not want to go into Election Day in a huge hole. It’s like a basketball team leaving the court at halftime down 30 points. That hole they’re in makes their second-half work – their pursuit of a win — even harder.
Turnout. Turnout. Turnout.
Continuing to proceed as-is and count on some huge Election Day Republican turnout wave to pull your proverbial fat out of the fire is not likely to be the answer in 2026. The early voting gap has got to be significantly narrowed.
This is not meant to be some kind of downer. It looks like a hell of an incentive to get yourself to a polling place.
