Tillis and that rating from FiveThirtyEight.com


Ninety-three percent! Ninety-five percent!  The Tillis campaign  eagerly throws those numbers out as a way of “proving” how conservative their man is.



Those figures actually come from a site called FiveThirtyEight.com, which was once owned by The  NY Times but is now an ESPN property. It’s run by  a liberal Democrat  named Nate Silver, and uses statistical analysis to examine American politics.


Let’s start off with an illustration of the credibility — or lack of — for fivethirtyeight.com.  Here was Silver’s prediction — as of election day 2016 — of who was going to win The White House:




That’s right.  ON ELECTION DAY, Silver was predicting that Hillary had a 71% probability of winning the presidency.  And Thom and his team want us to have faith in this guy’s numbers?



Silver has got one study that appears to illustrate how loyal various members of Congress are to the Trump White House.  It’s not a measure of conservatism.  It’s a measure of how often you vote in a way that aligns with The White House’s position.


(I hate to break it to you.  Trump has done a lot of good things.  But he’s NOT a doctrinaire conservative. Tariffs, for instance, are not conservative.  So, you can disagree with him and still have a conservative voting record.)


Here is fivethirtyeight.com’s info on Tillis:



Okay,let’s translate.  The 115th Congress was 2017-2019.  We are now IN the 116th Congress.  Check out his predicted scores.  Ol’ Nate apparently was expecting Tillis to throw Trump under the bus a whole lot more.


The 93 being quoted in Tillis ads is  his “career score.”  It’s the average of the two from the 115th and 116th.  The 95 that he mentions in interviews is his loyalty score for the last Congress.  The real story here is that his loyalty to Trump has dropped dramatically from  the last session to THIS SESSION.



If you want to really see some accurate measurements of conservatism, check out:  The Club For Growth,  Heritage Action, and Conservative Review.


Conservative Review rates Tillis at 38% (grade of F) on their 1-100 conservatism scale.   In fact, they rate Thom Tillis as the most liberal Republican in the North Carolina delegation to DC.   In fact, if you rank the entire US Senate based on their conservatism scores,  Tillis comes in at #41.


Heritage Action rates Tillis 59% (grade of F) on their 1-100 conservatism scale.  According to Heritage Action, the average score for a Senate Republican is 69 percent. So, our guy is below average.


The Club For Growth rates Tillis at 67% on their 1-100 conservatism scale. When you rank the entire Senate based on conservatism scores, Tillis is 41st out of 100.


So, while Theam Tillis seeks to sell us snake oil peddled by an in the tank liberal Democrat who believed Hillary was going to be president right up to the bitter end, there are quite a few others telling us the cold, hard truth about him.


5 thoughts on “Tillis and that rating from FiveThirtyEight.com

  1. Many thanks to the Daily Haymaker ! Keep up your GREAT WORK
    of exposing those who work SO HARD at covering their tracks. Tillis’s last stint of publically going against the President’s
    immigration agenda was THE LAST STRAW! I’ll Vote for anyone BUT this charlatan.

  2. Heritage’s score is what I believe is credible. Thom Tillis is certainly below average in many ways. NC deserves so much better! Garland Tucker 2020! Nothing changes if nothing changes!

  3. There is no way I will vote for Tillis again. He has certainly let us down. Thank God for Garland Tucker. He has my vote. I am a strong Republican Conservative and will do everything possible to keep Tillis from going back to Washington.

  4. Nate Silver is a flaming liberal, and he and his 538 website are notorious for their inaccuracy.

    There are many issues that the White House does not take a stand on. Things like confirming judges and other appointees runs up White House support scores, but policy issues are a whole different ball game. and that is where Tillis flunks out

  5. The only true test is to check a candidate’s voting record and examine the list of contributors. Follow the money. Unlike Perry running for the 3rd Congressional Seat with no voting record, Tillis does. He has been a disappointment though I am not sure he didn’t do exactly what he said he would do. We, the voters, are at fault because we wanted him to do what WE want him to do. Alas, his agenda doesn’t match ours. So glad he has a credible opponent in Garland Tucker. P.S. Please, do whatever it takes to save the commercial fishermen – it is a national security issue for a country to be able to feed itself healthy and accessible food products in times of war and famine- which takes skill, equipment and incredible fortitude by daring fishermen and their families. ,

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