The Laurie Story: NC-01 polling says the sheriff is in hot pursuit.

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A recent poll by Emerson College indicates the state of the GOP primary for North Carolina’s First Congressional District is right where we thought it was.  Laurie Buckhout – blessed with name ID and lots of outside PAC money – has Carteret County sheriff Asa Buck breathing down her neck for the primary field’s top spot.

Of course, if the election were held today,  someone named Undecided would be the GOP nominee. 

The margin of error (4.3 percent) makes this a neck-and-neck tossup. Laurie Buckhout lost a close race to the district’s incumbent, Democrat Don Davis, in 2024 while Donald Trump was on the ticket and winning the state convincingly.  She is benefiting this time with controversial TV ads that appear to show some enthusiasm for her 2026 candidacy by President Trump.  Critics are quick to point out that the audio and video featured in those Buckhout ads was from 2024 when she was the nominee in the general election. Trump has been conspicuously silent about Buckhout during the 2026 election season. 

At one point, Buckhout was cheering an alleged Trump shout-out that nobody — except her — saw or heard. 

Buckhout is positioning herself as an experienced DC insider who knows her way around The White House and Capitol Hill.  Buck – one of the state’s earliest Trump supporters – is positioning himself as being more in touch with eastern North Carolina and the frustrated voters in the MAGA ranks. 

Given the growing likelihood that Phil Berger is on his way out of Raleigh,  you have to look at these numbers and wonder if Bobby Hanig is regretting leaving the state Senate.  A Berger-less state Senate will likely be a very different world. 

In a crowded primary field like this, 30 percent of the vote is the threshold needed to avoid a runoff. 

Early voting ends on February 28.  Primary election day is March 3.