Shumaker: STILL not so hot on Mark Robinson
A prominent North Carolina political consultant with close ties to Thom Tillis and 
the rest of the GOP establishment does not seem to be impressed with the man many have ordained as the man-to-beat in the 2024 governor’s race.
We reported previously on Shumaker expressing concerns about Robinson’s nascent campaign for governor. The consultant appears to be doubling down on those concerns with a memo he released today:
There is hardly a day that goes by when I don’t get a call from a reporter or a member of the Republican donor community with the following question: “How do you think Mark Robinson will play to the general election voter?”
Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies and I worked on a client research project for North Carolina a few weeks ago. With the client’s permission, we added a few questions on the 2024 gubernatorial election to enable me to respond to these inquiries with hard data rather than my opinions.
But before I get to the meat of the numbers, a few relevant facts on the state of play in North Carolina are worth noting:
Last week, during IIANC Action Fund Thinker Lunch, Governor Cooper and Attorney General Stein’s consultant Morgan Jackson said, “Democrats pray daily for a Trump/Robinson ticket in North Carolina.” The following set of numbers bears out why he made that statement.[…]
Okay. So far, the message appears to be either (a) “I’m mad because I am NOT getting a piece of this Robinson campaign action,” (b) “Robinson AND Trump need to move left like my boy Thom”, or (C) “I’m laying the groundwork to catapult my boy Thom into this here thing.”
MORE:
[…] Robinson/Stein/Trump/Biden Image Numbers
The survey was fielded before the Trump indictments. However, I don’t see voters who were unfavorable before becoming more favorable after.
Trump and Biden are both underwater in North Carolina. Biden is net-negative 20 points with an image ratio of 36% favorable to 56% unfavorable. He is 2% favorable to 94% unfavorable with Republicans, 72% favorable to 16% unfavorable with Democrats, and 32% favorable to 59% unfavorable with Unaffiliated Voters.
Trump is net-negative 26 points with voters.He is 78% favorable to 20% unfavorable with Republican voters, 5% favorable to 92% unfavorable with Democrats, and 24% favorable to 69% unfavorable with Unaffiliated Voters.
Biden is net-negative 27 points with Unaffiliated voters compared to Trump, who is net-negative 45 points with the same group. Remember point two in the introduction about less crossover voting. Anyone can see the polarization these two men have with voters. However, overall Biden is in better standing with the Unaffiliated Voters. But not to overstate the point: he is the lesser of two evils.
Both Mark Robinson and Josh Stein remain undefined with voters. Robinson has an overall image of 22% favorable to 17% unfavorable.44% of voters had never heard of him. He is 44% favorable to 3% unfavorable with Republicans, 1% favorable to 31% unfavorable with Democrats and 21% favorable to 16% unfavorable with Unaffiliated Voters.
Stein’s overall image is slightly weaker than Robinson with 18% favorable to 12% unfavorable and 50% of voters saying they have never heard of him. He is 5% favorable to 15% unfavorable with Republicans, 29% favorable to 8% unfavorable with Democrats, and 20% favorable to 14% unfavorable with Unaffiliated Voters.
The Initial Ballot Test
The ballot test was Stein 45% and Robinson 42% in a two-way race between Mark Robinson and Josh Stein. Both numbers are relatively consistent with a generic ballot test. Both candidates need identity and issue definitions. The generic ballot test for Governor was 45% Democratic to 40% Republican in the survey.
Republicans were 87% Robinson, 4% Stein and 9 % Undecided. Democrats were 88% Stein, 6% Robinson, and 6% undecided. Unaffiliated Voters were 42% Stein, 37% Robinson, and 19% undecided.
Concerns About Electability
Much has been written about rumors among Republican activists about Mark Robinson’s electability. The concern is understandable, given the 2020 elections and what played out for Dan Forest. So, it is prudent to test a few of those concerns and see how they may impact voters’ opinions. We tested two well-known facts about Mark Robinson that have been reported in the media and his social media.
On the issue of eliminating science and history classes in grades one to five, 72% of all voters said they were less likely to support Mark Robinson compared to 4% who said they were more likely and 23% said it made no difference. 58% of Republicans said less likely, 80% of Democrats said less likely, and 76% of Unaffiliated Voters said less likely.
Robinson’s failure to pay his property taxes is also an issue with voters. Overall, 65% said they were less likely to 2% more likely, and 31% makes no difference. Republicans were 58% less likely, Democrats 71% less likely and Unaffiliated Voters were 68% less likely
Concerns about Robinson Are Real And the GOP Should Take Note
Any election for a major office in a competitive state will not be held in a vacuum. The candidates with the best ability to drive key messaging points are usually the candidates who win. Robinson and Stein will be well funded, but Robinson needs to do himself more favors.
When voters learned of the Robinson issues, the statewide ballot moved to 51% Stein to 31% Robinson. Republicans were 67% Robinson, 10% Stein and 19% undecided. Democrats were 89% Stein, 5% Robinson and 5% undecided. Unaffiliated Voters were 55% Stein, 25% Robinson and 15% undecided. For Robinson to be competitive in the General, he must win the Unaffiliated vote. It is simply a function of math, which as Robinson has acknowledged, is sometimes a problem for him. Republicans have time to fix this; the question remains whether or not they will find the will to do so.
More about the Survey
The Survey was conducted from May 30-June 4, 2023, among 600 likely voters with a margin of error of + 4.0%. […]
One drag on their campaign, that the next Republican nominee for NC Governor won’t have to deal with, Hal Weatherman.
Shumaker’s position makes me question my own, but then I remember.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut from time to time.
Dale Yeah!
Given the destruction of the NCGOP at the hands of Tillis and Whatley, will any of this matter?
Agreed with your statement. Now, where does Dale fit in this picture with his experience?
Shumaker has long been Tillis’ consultant. Is he trying to muddy the water for a Tillis entry into the governor’s race, to follow up on Tillis’ boy Whatley being reinstalled as NCGOP chairman in a highly questionable vote?
Shumaker has long been an enemy of conservatives in North Carolina. His campaign strategy can be summed up as faking to the right in the primary, and then running to the left in the general election. Candidates like Mark Robinson and Dale Folwell are not going to fall for that crap. Shumaker sold his soul to the Greta Thunbergs and the John Kerrys of the world on the green new deal, taking gobs of far left money to help impose the Green New Deal on North Carolina. He is as slimy as it gets.
What cannot be ignored is the fact that the Lt Governor missed several property tax payments in recent years. Also and more importantly as someone who advocates for less government has a family business that is reliant on government programs. Both those are going to be a hard sell to the 10% of voters who will swing the election. I gave him $ when he ran in 2020 but this year I am going with Folwell. He is probably the most qualified and ready person for the job in the state of North Carolina’s history. Their views and that of Walker are not too far off. Different shades of red.
Ditto. Robinson is naive if he doesn’t think he has to be squeaky clean to rise higher than the position he already occupies. Unfair, maybe, but that’s how it is. And I’ve long since had enough of John Boehner’s friend Mark Walker. It’s Folwell or bust.
Walker buddying up with Boehner makes him soiled goods to many conservatives. His failed race for US Senate should have taught him that. Walker missed his shot to compensate for his alliance with Boehner, and that would have been to primary Tillis for US Senate in 2020. Win or lose, doing that he would have made himself a hero to conservatives and erased the Boehner mistake from peoples’ minds.
The big concern with Robinson is that he has done such a poor job in staffing. Staffing is absolutely key for a successful governor. Competent staffing using politically dependable key appointees and middle level appointees guaranteed Jim Martin’s success as governor and McCrory’s abject failure in staffing led to his downfall. While Robinson is a rock star as a speaker, his actual handling of issues has been disappointing and much of that goes back to bad staffing..
Where Dale Folwell needs to do better is getting someone on board who actually knows how to run a campaign. His yard signs and stickers he had at the convention showed me that whoever he has now is absoutely clueless. Folwell is great on management, good on issues, and a solid conservative. Someone who knows what they are doing running his campaign is the piece he is missing so far. That someone would NOT be named Shumaker or Stewart or Shull.
Everything considered, Folwell is the clear choice, but he does need some politically savvy people around him.
This “data” is just that, data. Mark Robinson is a regular guy for the regular people. He has strong Christian values and isn’t scared to make a stand for what’s right. I’ve met him and he’s a super nice man.
So apparently on negative remarks about Mark Robinson get posted. Wow, typical news media.
Sorry, I see my comment did post. My mistake.
Shumaker’s analysis is, as usual badly flawed. First if you poll on one candidate’s negatives and not the negatives of the other candidate, of course it is going to skew the results in a predictable direction. That is exactly what Shumaker did with his polling, and he is a good enough pollster to have known exactly what he was doing when he did it. The only real question is why, and whose purposes he is serving in doing it.
There is another serious flaw in Shumaker’s analysis. As I learned from one of the real masters of political analysis and strategy almost 50 years ago, namely Lee Atwater, analysis of the voters on mere registration statistics, as Shumaker does when he claims Republicans are NC’s smallest voting block, is virtually meaningless. A meaningful analysis should be based on voting behavior, not mere registration. Applying Atwater’s methodology to the most recent election for president and governor, 2020, the base Republican vote statewide in North Carolina is 47%, the base Democrat vote is 46%, and the swing vote is 7%. The reality is that among those registered as Unaffiliated are many who regularly vote straight ticket Republican, a fair number who vote straight ticket Democrat, and a minority of Unaffiliated voters who are swing voters. Looking at voting behavior instead of mere regisration numbers gives a much better perspective of the electorate.
Mark Robinson is a rock star public speaker but every speech is the same. Fiery, exciting and motivational in delivery and totally devoid of any issues or statements as to what he will do for NC if elected. Folwell is highly qualified and has been our best State Treasurer in my 40 years of NCGOP politics. . But his choice of a campaign manager automatically disqualifies him as a serious candidate. It was a total self destruct move and he will not get any of the Guilford or Mecklenburg vote because of it. Dale and his campaign mgr= Dale Nah.
I do not know who this campaign manager is, but if they kept that title to do the leg work on the campaign, under the direction of a conservative consultant who knew what they were doing, I would not see a problem. If he or she is the one setting campaign strategy, he might as well save his filing fee. When I went by Folwell’s table at the convention, I immediately saw he had a huge problem. His yard signs and stickers did not communicate his name and the office he was running for. They were artsy and totally useless. The best thing to do with them is throw them away. And whoever designed them would have little more ability to do radio or TV or digital advertising, mail pieces, etc.
Dale Folwell is my top choice for governor, but if he stumbles out of the gate with inept campaign leadership, he is doomed from the start, which would be a tragedy for North Carolina and for the Republican Party. I expect this campaign manager is somebody he has some personal connection with. Heck let him or her have a title, but don’t use him or her to craft strategy or message or design campaign materials or adverising. Get somebody who knows what they are doing for that. And again, they should NOT be named Shumaker or Steward or Shull.
As a DEM I look foward to the radio and tv commercials showing Robinson spewing his views that will totally turn off the voters needed to win a statewide race. I also suspect many in the business community that typically vote republican would vote for Stein over Robinson for the same reason they voted for Cooper over Forrest. Women are going to love to hear his views on where he thinks they should stand in society. Robinson will have the spotlight on him like never before and I suspect even more stuff that will be used against him will come from under his rock.
Dale Folwell has been the most effective Cabinet member in the past 100 years in North Carolina.. He’s not a show pony like Robinson who has very little responsibilities as Lt. Governor. His work ethic is second to none & his results have been stellar. In as I like Robinson there’s very little chance of him winning in the general. The Dems & their friends in the media will destroy him. Folwell has done such a great job that the Hospital lobby spent a lot of cash trying to defeat him in 2020 & the most liberal paper in NC the Charlotte Observer endorsed him in the 2020 election. I hope folks think about the baggage that Robinson has & vote for Folwell. He’s the most solid candidate in the Governor’s race.
blah blah blah. anyone connected to Tillis , Whatley , McCrory is not to be trusted and speaks with forked tongue.