Putting 2012 NC GOV polling in perspective: (A libertarian leak for the NCGOP?)


The latest polling from Democrat pollster Public Policy Polling finds Republican Pat McCrory leading Democrat Walter Dalton 43% to 34% with libertarian Barbara Howe drawing 9 percent.  That leaves 14% undecided — and an undisclosed margin of error — roughly four months out from the big vote.

Let’s compare THAT with a recent Civitas Poll which showed McCrory with 46%, Dalton with 44% and Howe with 7 percent.  Got all that?

Ok, let’s look back at the 2oo8 election results for North Carolina governor.   Bev Perdue won with 50.2 percent to McCrory’s 46.9 percent.  Libertarian Mike Munger pulled in 2.9 percent of the vote.

Four years later — McCrory is basically holding what he had on election day 2008 (possibly shedding two or three points, depending on which poll you believe.)    Barbara Howe — basically a political unknown when compared to the two major party contenders in 2012 — is polling MUCH better than her fellow Libertarian Munger did in 2008.  

The alarm bells I wrote of in a previous post should still be sounding for the McCrory camp and the NCGOP.  The head of the party’s ticket is basically stuck where he was in 2008 — despite having been the party’s nominee in 2008, and starting his 2012 campaign basically after the last vote was counted in 2008.  

The improved polling for the Libertarians should be cause for alarm for the NCGOP.  The libertarians basically bleed voters away from the GOP — just like the Greens take votes from the Democrats.    (Currently, Howe’s percentage of the vote is larger than the total percentage of NC registered voters who are registered Libertarian.) 

According to the state board of elections, there are almost as many unaffiliated voters in North Carolina (1,567,204) as there are Republicans (1,970,086).  There are 13,784 registered Libertarians.

I am stunned at the number of my under-50 friends and neighbors who have  taken a good hard look at Ron Paul’s GOP primary campaign and the current Libertarian presidential candidacy of Gary Johnson.  These folks are die-hard free marketeers who have routinely cast their votes for the GOP in the past.  What is at work here?

Perhaps it’s all about fear for the nation’s future.  We have a full-fledged economic disaster upon us.  North Carolina has one of the worst jobless rates in the nation.  People are desperate for leadership to pull our state and nation out of the ditch.  Instead, we’re getting a campaign based on the concepts of  ‘We ain’t Obama’  and ‘We ain’t Bev’ from the state and national parties.

Quite often, it’s like watching two Little League baseball teams at the local park.   It isn’t pretty,  and — other than the uniforms — there’s not much difference between the two teams.   Unless you have a kid on one of the teams, you’re really kind of indifferent about who wins.

The Libertarians are talking about solutions that HAVE worked in the past, and can work again if we get some courageous leadership in our state and national governments.  They’re talking about cutting taxes and cutting the influence of government in our lives.  Reagan showed us that cutting taxes and cutting spending does great things for the economy.

The GOP took Congress in 2010 promising to trash ObamaCare.  They made a half-hearted attempt which resulted in a bunch of whining about mean ol’ Harry Reid throwing a monkey wrench in things.

Pass legislation EVERY DAY or EVERY WEEK!  Rub that disaster called ObamaCare in Harry and Nancy and Barry’s faces.  Make them defend it in front of the angry, frustrated, beleaguered American public.

Now that the Supreme Court has acted — and we are in the middle of a campaign — congressional Republicans are talking tough again.  We got tough talk in 2010 which led to little action.  What will be different this time?

Where is the leadership at the state level in the fight against ObamaCare?  It would be nice to hear from the state party or from General Assembly leaders promising to stand in the schoolhouse door when ObamaCare comes calling.   We’re not getting a peep from our Republican friends on Jones Street.

Today, Pat McCrory took a break from fundraising  to say something half-hearted about how he didn’t like the idea of expanding Medicare — one of the requirements of ObamaCare.  This came about a week after several other GOP governors and gubernatorial candidates had come out firmly in opposition to any and all aspects of ObamaCare.

In this climate, people are not interested in making a choice between two rival country clubs, or two rival car clubs.  They want some leadership to help pull us out of this economic nightmare.   You guys at NCGOP can keep going how you are — refusing to give the grassroots what they really want.   Libertarian polling will keep getting better.  And you will once again be frustrated on election day.  Don’t blame the libertarians for costing you the election.  (It’s your own fault.)

Ol’ Pat needs to get some of that ol’ time free market religion and start preaching it passionately on every street corner.  He needs to make us believe he believes THAT STUFF and will fight for it when (or if) he gets in.  Barbara Howe’s polling strength is proof that GOP-leaning conservative voters are NOT getting their needs met by the NCGOP.